Survivor Pools

[wisconsin5473]

So, I got off of Wash early in the week and had my choices narrowed to St Lou and NO. After all of the media hype against The NYJ all week I finally sniffed out the Jets to win. Given NO's traveling to the west coast record and the record of teams(Oak) coming back 5-1 following a 50 pt defensive week. Even though I bet NOrl I ended up picking "The Easy Choice", Houston. Which ended up being one of the hardest and luckiest sweats ever to come back and win. All of that said, with both of my picks through we are down to 265. This week is a huge week. We have to lose 26 or else I will have to make 2 picks in wk 13. I am better prepared to make picks in wk 14. So, one of my picks is set, Cinn over Oak. The other is the tough one.
At this point I am looking at: Ariz over St Lou, Indy over Buff and Tenn over Jack. So, my thoughts on these.
I had Ariz circled early to use in this game. It is one of the few remaining games left that they should win. Wells should be back. I am hoping for Heap to finally play. Amendola got a little dinged up again yesterday, but came back in the game.
Indy needs this game to keep their Wild Card lead. If they lose this game and next week at Det they are right back in the middle of the pack for the playoffs. Also, the whole last game giving up 50 points thing comes into effect.
Tenn is off of a bye week. Henne is a big question mark. Can he play like that again. The only thing keeping me looking at this is that the records for teams coming off an overtime game this year is 3-13. That game yesterday could have taken a lot of wind out of their sails.
What are your thoughts on these 3 games? Who do you like the best. Again, all input is appreciated.

[The Guesser]

Ariz is the one I'd most consider, but I'd like to see who their QB will be. I don't trust Indy, and I certainly don't trust Tenn as a road team against anyone. This is definitely a tough week. I'm in 2 remaining pools, one I have to pick 2 teams. Cinn will be one of my choices. I HATE using road teams, but KC is in such disarray, I'm seriously considering Denver.

[wisconsin5473]

I could use Denver, but it would really put me in a bad spot for wk 16 especially if I have to pick 2 games. I would end up having to pick 2 3pt spread games instead of 1 this week. I have been waiting for KC to pull a game together all year, so I am hoping this could be the one. We would probably lose over 100 in my pool. I am hoping for a Denver letdown.

[oldluds]

Hey Wisc, congrats, I was anxious for your thread, to hear how you did! For what it is worth, I am 11-0 on the FoxSports site, I know whoop-de-do, but anyway I am using Denver this week. My thoughts on worrying about later weeks, such as 16, is as someone mentioned already, a game may open up because of a team having sewed things up. I also lean Arizona too tho, with Wells hopefully contributing, and AZ at home, and still possible hopes. I snatched up their Defense in a league I'm in for this wk, figure they can pressure Bradford. I don't think I'd touch the TN/Jax game, too many unknown factors in play there, toss-up. And Indy should take care of business, but Buffalo is unpredictable. So final analysis, Cincy should be a lock, not sure if thats a choice, Denver would be my pick, and is , and after that maybe Indy. I can see your psychology, hoping for a KC upset, and getting the numbers down too tho. GL my BW friend.

[wisconsin5473]

Hey Oldluds, thanks, yeah, I see what you are saying about wk 16, but like I said having to pick 2 close calls as opposed to one this week makes a difference. I actually think KC has a shot this week. Denver has a big division lead, running back out, holidays and KC way overdue. Denver could be primed for a letdown.

[Carpet]

KC has been over due since pre season and they just are not a good team no matter where they play or when

[hart attack]

anyone that thinks the chefs have a shot at the outright win is smoking some bad crack. peyton won't allow the "letdown".

[wisconsin5473]

I pay good money for my crack!!! In more ways than one. Oh, wait is this a family station? Happy Betting and Thanksgiving everyone!

[wisconsin5473]

So, at this point of the week I am leaning towards Ariz. The line is being bet down, but I am not sure why. Beani Wells, Todd Heap and most of their hurt defensive players are back. Kolb is available in case of emergency. D Amendola is now doubtful for St Lou. Ariz has beat them 7 or 8 straight times at home.
Tenn has moved to my second choice. I am having a hard time getting past picking a team that is 30th in total yds and 31st in total points given up and on the road as well. I considered taking Carolina for a moment, but again, hard to take a 2 win team, who finds a way to lose, on the road on Monday night.
Any knew thoughts from anyone?

[dragon1952]

Any of the teams you are considering....Arizona and Tennessee esp., are a total crap shoot. I think KC is a loser. Arizona with Lindley at QB is scary. St Louey has a decent defense/pass rush and could cause him problems. I think Henne could actually do that again...I mean if he can do that against the Texans on the road I think there's a decent chance he can do it at home vs Ten. He could be playing for a starting gig.....but not to say they are a really good option. If I had a gun to my head I might have to go with Carolina considering how bad Philly is playing and you've got the Newton factor. They're all toss-ups though.
EDIT: LeSean McCoy is out for Philly