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Crummy 11-10 last week
CFB Overall
67-54-3 sides
5-5-1 totals
0-1 ML
Thursday
Game of the week
West Virginia +1.5 @ Louisville - These teams are very evenly matched as you can tell by the line. West Virginia won last year's matchup 46-44 in 3 OT's! West Virginia relies mainly on a stellar ground game with Steve Slaton being the workhorse with 151 carries for 1059 yds and 9 TD's with a healthy 7 ypc average. He's a threat to break one at any time. As a team they've rushed for over 2200 yds and 28 TD's! Louisville has a much more balanced offense with 1512 yds rushing and 1961 yds passing. Since Bush got hurt the rushing game has been by committee with the primary burden split between Kolby Smith (451 yds, 6 TD's) and George Stripling (355 yds, 5 TD's) and they can both catch the ball out of the backfield. The favorite targets in the passing game are Harry Douglas (35 receptions for 520 yds) and Mario Urrutia (27 for 520 yds). Even though you think of Louisville as a passing team the bulk of their TD's have been via the ground with 24 and only 9 through the air. Both teams are pretty stingy on defense as far as points allowed and both are probably tighter against the run than the pass. The Mountaineers have twice the INT's with 10 as well as a better TO ratio with a +6 compared to Louisvilles's -4. The kicking game is pretty even as far as FG's and PAT's. Louisville is playing at home of course where they are undefeated since late 2003, but none of those opponents compare to this one. I think the difference in this game will be at QB with the edge going to West Virginia's Pat White because of his mobilty and running ability. I mentioned that Slaton was the workhorse with over 1000 yds rushing but White is in second by a landslide with 73 carries for 619 yds and 9 TD's and a healthy 8.5 yard average! He, like Slaton, can break one at any time. In comparison, Brohm and Cantwell have combined for 15 carries for -30 yds and 0 TD's! And even though White doesn't pass nearly as often, when he does he's accurate with a 68.8% completion rate. The Mountaneers get the outright win.
Saturday
Ball St +34 @ Michigan - I'll repeat my write-up from last weeks Northwestern/Michigan matchup. "Michigan's largest margin of victory this year has been 26. Lloyd Carr has never been one to intentionally run up the score either. As bad as the Wildcats are, this is a lot of points and they did look a little better offensively last week. Michigan takes a breather after a series of big games." Same applies here basically. The Wolverines have got to have one eye looking ahead past Ball St and Indiana for the showdown with the Buckeyes.
Wake Forest +4 vs Boston College - Two 7-1 teams from the ACC with the home team getting a bunch of points. Live home dog here and Wake's defense should keep it close. Wake Forest struggled a little bit last week in their 24-17 victory vs an improving North Carolina team but their opportunistic 'D' took advantage of a blocked punt and 3 TO's. Boston College has turned it up a notch on 'D' lately too. Maybe a low scoring game like their 17-15 loss at N.C. State?
Purdue +2 @ Michigan St. - The Spartans 1-5 in their last 6 with the only victory the amazing come from 34 behind against Northwestern. Purdue get's a break from 2 great defensive efforts by Wisconsin and Penn St. That ought to change this week as Michigan St is giving up points in droves, as in a 36 pt average their last 6! And their running game has tanked since the Notre Dame loss in only averaging 73 yds per game in the last 5 games.
Indiana +6 @ Minnesota - You've got to be kidding. The Gophers only 3 wins this year have been vs Kent St, Temple and North Dakota St., the latter being only by 1 pt and a near loss. Indiana on the other hand has been improving with 3 wins in their last 4 games including Iowa and a 25 pt win last week vs Michigan St.
Maryland +16.5 @ Clemson - Clemson coming off of a tough 24-7 loss against Virginia Tech now have to get up enough to cover 16 vs a pretty decent 6-2 Maryland team which is coming off of 3 nice wins in a row, including last weeks 27-24 win over Florida St. Maryland had a 13 pt lead in that game deep into the 3rd Q.
Florida -15@ Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt gives up big yardage but not always huge points but Florida should be able to score on them pretty well as Duke put up 28 and S. Carolina 31 the last 2 games. Vanderbilt is a 3 man show on offense (arguably) with QB Nickson, WR Earl Bennett and RB Jackson-Garrison doing about 90% of the damage. You'd think if you worked on containing Nickson and double-teaming Bennett you'd have it made and Florida's defense is tough!
Ohio St -26.5 @ Illinois - I've been passing on the Buckeyes but they've just been too dominant lately winning by 44, 41, 31 and 28 their last 4. Illinois has only lost by this much once this season though.... a 33-0 loss at Rutgers....but they haven't played anyone like this either.
Hawaii -28 @ Utah St - Utah St lost to Idaho by 20 and Hawaii just beat Idaho 68-10. That's all I'm gonna say. This may be my contest game of the week.
Tennessee +3 vs LSU - LSU has won 6 games vs powder-puffs and lost their only 2 tough games to Auburn and Florida. Tennessee has a 1 pt loss to Florida and 7 wins including wins over California, Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina. I know Coker's out but I still don't get it. Just give it to Hardesty and Foster who both have just as many carries as Coker (but definitely not the average per carry).
Missouri +6@ Nebraska - This looks like a pretty even matchup and should be a close game. If Oklahoma St and Kansas can put up those kinds of numbers on Nebraska, then Missouri should be able to also you would think.
Penn St +7 @ Wisconsin - Penn St has only given up an average of 11 pts per game their last 5. They held Ohio St to 28, which is saying something, and Michigan to 10. This should be close and low scoring.
Virginia Tech -2.5 @ Miami - Look at Miami's 5 pathetic wins this year....Florida A&M, Houston, North Carolina, Florida Int. and Duke. The Houston win was by a point and they almost lost to Duke. The Hokies should kill them.
Arizona St +3.5 @ Oregon St. - The Beavs in for a big let down I bet after that huge win last week over USC. Arizona St has been playing well since their bye with a close loss to USC and 2 nice wins over Stanford and Washington.
CFB Overall
67-54-3 sides
5-5-1 totals
0-1 ML
Thursday
Game of the week
West Virginia +1.5 @ Louisville - These teams are very evenly matched as you can tell by the line. West Virginia won last year's matchup 46-44 in 3 OT's! West Virginia relies mainly on a stellar ground game with Steve Slaton being the workhorse with 151 carries for 1059 yds and 9 TD's with a healthy 7 ypc average. He's a threat to break one at any time. As a team they've rushed for over 2200 yds and 28 TD's! Louisville has a much more balanced offense with 1512 yds rushing and 1961 yds passing. Since Bush got hurt the rushing game has been by committee with the primary burden split between Kolby Smith (451 yds, 6 TD's) and George Stripling (355 yds, 5 TD's) and they can both catch the ball out of the backfield. The favorite targets in the passing game are Harry Douglas (35 receptions for 520 yds) and Mario Urrutia (27 for 520 yds). Even though you think of Louisville as a passing team the bulk of their TD's have been via the ground with 24 and only 9 through the air. Both teams are pretty stingy on defense as far as points allowed and both are probably tighter against the run than the pass. The Mountaineers have twice the INT's with 10 as well as a better TO ratio with a +6 compared to Louisvilles's -4. The kicking game is pretty even as far as FG's and PAT's. Louisville is playing at home of course where they are undefeated since late 2003, but none of those opponents compare to this one. I think the difference in this game will be at QB with the edge going to West Virginia's Pat White because of his mobilty and running ability. I mentioned that Slaton was the workhorse with over 1000 yds rushing but White is in second by a landslide with 73 carries for 619 yds and 9 TD's and a healthy 8.5 yard average! He, like Slaton, can break one at any time. In comparison, Brohm and Cantwell have combined for 15 carries for -30 yds and 0 TD's! And even though White doesn't pass nearly as often, when he does he's accurate with a 68.8% completion rate. The Mountaneers get the outright win.
Saturday
Ball St +34 @ Michigan - I'll repeat my write-up from last weeks Northwestern/Michigan matchup. "Michigan's largest margin of victory this year has been 26. Lloyd Carr has never been one to intentionally run up the score either. As bad as the Wildcats are, this is a lot of points and they did look a little better offensively last week. Michigan takes a breather after a series of big games." Same applies here basically. The Wolverines have got to have one eye looking ahead past Ball St and Indiana for the showdown with the Buckeyes.
Wake Forest +4 vs Boston College - Two 7-1 teams from the ACC with the home team getting a bunch of points. Live home dog here and Wake's defense should keep it close. Wake Forest struggled a little bit last week in their 24-17 victory vs an improving North Carolina team but their opportunistic 'D' took advantage of a blocked punt and 3 TO's. Boston College has turned it up a notch on 'D' lately too. Maybe a low scoring game like their 17-15 loss at N.C. State?
Purdue +2 @ Michigan St. - The Spartans 1-5 in their last 6 with the only victory the amazing come from 34 behind against Northwestern. Purdue get's a break from 2 great defensive efforts by Wisconsin and Penn St. That ought to change this week as Michigan St is giving up points in droves, as in a 36 pt average their last 6! And their running game has tanked since the Notre Dame loss in only averaging 73 yds per game in the last 5 games.
Indiana +6 @ Minnesota - You've got to be kidding. The Gophers only 3 wins this year have been vs Kent St, Temple and North Dakota St., the latter being only by 1 pt and a near loss. Indiana on the other hand has been improving with 3 wins in their last 4 games including Iowa and a 25 pt win last week vs Michigan St.
Maryland +16.5 @ Clemson - Clemson coming off of a tough 24-7 loss against Virginia Tech now have to get up enough to cover 16 vs a pretty decent 6-2 Maryland team which is coming off of 3 nice wins in a row, including last weeks 27-24 win over Florida St. Maryland had a 13 pt lead in that game deep into the 3rd Q.
Florida -15@ Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt gives up big yardage but not always huge points but Florida should be able to score on them pretty well as Duke put up 28 and S. Carolina 31 the last 2 games. Vanderbilt is a 3 man show on offense (arguably) with QB Nickson, WR Earl Bennett and RB Jackson-Garrison doing about 90% of the damage. You'd think if you worked on containing Nickson and double-teaming Bennett you'd have it made and Florida's defense is tough!
Ohio St -26.5 @ Illinois - I've been passing on the Buckeyes but they've just been too dominant lately winning by 44, 41, 31 and 28 their last 4. Illinois has only lost by this much once this season though.... a 33-0 loss at Rutgers....but they haven't played anyone like this either.
Hawaii -28 @ Utah St - Utah St lost to Idaho by 20 and Hawaii just beat Idaho 68-10. That's all I'm gonna say. This may be my contest game of the week.
Tennessee +3 vs LSU - LSU has won 6 games vs powder-puffs and lost their only 2 tough games to Auburn and Florida. Tennessee has a 1 pt loss to Florida and 7 wins including wins over California, Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina. I know Coker's out but I still don't get it. Just give it to Hardesty and Foster who both have just as many carries as Coker (but definitely not the average per carry).
Missouri +6@ Nebraska - This looks like a pretty even matchup and should be a close game. If Oklahoma St and Kansas can put up those kinds of numbers on Nebraska, then Missouri should be able to also you would think.
Penn St +7 @ Wisconsin - Penn St has only given up an average of 11 pts per game their last 5. They held Ohio St to 28, which is saying something, and Michigan to 10. This should be close and low scoring.
Virginia Tech -2.5 @ Miami - Look at Miami's 5 pathetic wins this year....Florida A&M, Houston, North Carolina, Florida Int. and Duke. The Houston win was by a point and they almost lost to Duke. The Hokies should kill them.
Arizona St +3.5 @ Oregon St. - The Beavs in for a big let down I bet after that huge win last week over USC. Arizona St has been playing well since their bye with a close loss to USC and 2 nice wins over Stanford and Washington.
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