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10/7
5* Wake Forest +17 over Clemson - Guess which team is undefeated here? Nope. Not Clemson! The mighty Wake Forest Demon Deacons and they will be looking for their first 6-0 start in 62 years! Ok, perhaps there is enough evidence that Clemson is the better team based strictly on the fact that they played at Boston College and lost by one, and then played at Florida State and won straight up by a TD. Wake Forest has no such giants on their resume. But not so sure Clemson deserves to be 17 point favorites on the road against Wake Forest in what amounts to a monumental game for Wake. Once again, we take a look at the history between these two schools. One would expect, after seeing Clemson as a 17 point road fav, that when looking at the past history here, we'd see all sorts of Clemson blow outs of Wake. Nope. Actually, over the last decade, there have been two non competitive games. But guess what? Clemson was the one who got blown out in one of those, 45-17 in 2003. So, you then might say, well, Wake Forest must have a young inexperienced team. They must have lost a ton of starters to graduation. Nope again! This is almost the exact same Wake Forest team from a year ago. They returned 9 on offense and 10 on defense. This is the same team, that one year ago, beat Clemson 31-27. The proof is in the puddin, as the saying goes. This team can play with Clemson. We have to give them a shot, getting +17 at home, playing a team that is ranked in the top 20 (15). A ranking they want so badly. Wake goes into this game thinking they can win straight up. They know they can win straight up based on last year alone. 17 points is a bonus. Can't see Wake rolling over here.4* Purdue +11 over Iowa - Each week here on the Key Release page, our selections seem to take on a common theme. This week, that theme would appear to be teams that are getting too much respect with the line playing against teams not getting enough respect. Overvalued teams vs undervalued teams equals a bunch of added value for us! Iowa is a team we just haven't been impressed with. Sure they are 4-1 and their lone loss came at the hands of the #1 team in the nation. But their wins have come against sub par competition and quite frankly weren't all that impressive to begin with. Certainly no more impressive than their opponents, Purdue, who is also 4-1 and beat a decent Minnesota team while losing last week for the first time when they visited Notre Dame. No shame there. A look at the series history here tells us that Purdue always plays Iowa tough. They have won 2 of the last three straight up. If you gave Purdue +11 in each of the last 10 games against Iowa, they would have covered 8 and lost 2. That's important to note, because it gives us a glimpse of the historical talent level between the two teams. It shows us that over the years, talent wise, these two teams have been on the same level. Throw in a little revenge for last years 34-17 loss at home to Iowa, and you have all the makings of a nice play on the underdog here.
4* Florida pk over LSU - We're not going to tell you that we have uncovered some major statistical advantage for the Gators here. Or that we have a million reasons why the Gators are the better team and should win. We have none of that here. This play borders on being little more than a hunch for us. Hey, sometimes it's not all rocket science in this game. Sometimes, after watching 35 years worth of college football games year in and year out, you just get a feeling on certain games that the time is right. This game has obvious National Title implications. The Gators are one of the remaining undefeated teams in the nation. They have a BRUTAL stretch of schedule in front of them and the likelihood of them remaining undefeated this year is probably slim. But you have to take one game at a time, starting with LSU in the swamp this week. These two schools will always be loaded with talent. Either of these teams will be capable of beating the other on any given day anytime they play. The team that makes the fewer mistakes will generally win these games. When we glance at the schedules of these two, we see that LSU has played no one with the exception of Auburn. A game which they lost 7-3. Florida has beaten Tennessee on the road and Alabama last week at home, albeit in a much closer game than the scoreboard showed. We simply like our chances this year with Florida being the team to make fewer mistakes and remaining undefeated for at least one more week. Florida RB DeShawn Wynn might not play, which may create even more line value for us. We're plenty comfortable with back up Kestahn Moore. Again, there is no shortage of talent here. Most back ups would start on 95% of the rest of the college football teams in this country. So call this one a gut call. But also keep in mind our gut calls generally win 55 to 60 times out of 100, which is what we are shooting for!
3* Tennessee -2 over Georgia - Huge SEC tilt here in a game which Tennessee can simply not afford to lose. Not much separating these two talent wise but one area where there is a decided edge in favor of the Vols is the QB position. Ainge has come into his own this year and will no doubt factor into the outcome here big time. The Georgia QB situation is not stable. Tereshinski will get the start, but clearly Ainge is the more talented QB in this one, regardless of who plays for the Bulldogs. Revenge for last years home loss, major SEC implications, superior QB, all combined with the fact that Tennessee on a mission this year after last years disappointing season, are all the reasons we need to like the Vols here. We are hoping the number is pk by game time. In which case we will boost this plays rating, so check back.
2* Iowa State +7 over Nebraska - We'll, we were high on this Iowa State team coming into the year and felt they could, and would, make some noise this year. Needless to say, they haven't really impressed us much this year. They did come through for us when we had them over Iowa earlier in the year, but the way they have played against questionable competition has been simply unimpressive. Furthermore, we so often talk about recruiting and talent levels at different schools, and how in some instances, one team/school will always get the better players from pretty much the same pool. This is one such case. A look at the history between these two will show you that Nebraska has dominated and often times simply destroyed Iowa State over the years (82-16-2 overall). To us, this looks to be Iowa States last chance for years to come to pull off an upset, as this Nebraska program is on the rise once again after a few off years and a transition to a whole new style of football. Nebraska looks to be vulnerable in their secondary and well, as luck would have it, Iowa States strength is throwing the ball. This is pretty much the exact same offense for Iowa State that last year took Nebraska to OT and beat them straight up the year before that. We think the talent is there to make this a close game and think Iowa State will take advantage of what looks to be their last chance to beat Nebraska for years to come.
2* Navy +3 over Air Force - This one not a strong play. Air Force certainly a very capable team. They almost pulled the upset at Tennessee early in the year and Tennessee ain't no cupcake. This is a good Air Force team. Navy's had their number though in recent years, winning the last 3 straight up by a field goal. Navy has the talent to win and we can't ignore their eye popping spread mark on the road the last few years. They have covered 21 of their last 26 road games. Once again, this is a weak call here, but we're siding with Navy +3 for a peanut.
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