American Idol betting

[woodee12]

Found a site from some article I read that monitors the busy signal for American Idol voters. Last week they were right on having Madasia and Elliot in the bottom 3 with Mandasia getting the boot. Both were about 3.5/1 odds to get the boot so I played both and took the small profit. I don't really even watch the show much except when I am forced to, but with a little cash on it, It gets a bit interesting. Can't really tell you what any of these performers look like except for the hot little blond, Kellie, who is worth watching the show for ,even if the bets go in the hole. Not wagering more than 1/4 to a 1/2 unit on this but do see soem value in making some extra cash.

Kicked off tonight will be either:

Bucky Covington +148

Ace Young -157

Agian, I couldn;t pick these two out of a line-up but they were the bottom two from the site I looked at the past 2 weeks.

I am going with the dog myself becasue see no value in laying -157 on a TV show.

1/4 unit on Bucky +148 to be eliminated.


Odds to win:

Katharine McPhee +310 at Pinnacle...May jump on this one as she has been inproving her ranking on the site since she was lower earlier in the show.

Come on guys, I know some of your wives or girlfriends coax you into watching it like me, so what are your thoughts? Maybe we can make some cash, make the wife happy with the new interest in her show, nad all be happy!

[brink]

Cmon Woodee. You can admit that you watch the show. No shame there

I like the show.

It's a challenge to try and handicap the public to see which way they will vote.

It's also interesting to watch Simon Cowel try to sway the vote. Afterall, it's his money on the line as it's his record label that awards the $$$ and the record contract to the winner. He knows what sells, so if you're betting, pay attention to his comments.

He's pushing hard for Pickler and probaby rightly so. She is extremely marketable. Might be worth a shot at +648 to win the whole thing.

My value play for who will be eliminated tonight is Eliot Yamin at +1814.

As Woodee said, no value in laying the favorite price on Ace Young and this kid Bucky has been sqeaking by for the last few weeks but probably gave one of the best performances of all last night.

Eliot Yamin was in the bottom three last week, and in my opinion, simply isn't marketable as a recording star. Good voice, but nothing more. Worth a shot at the big dog price. He was also towards the bottom of the Dial Idol results a couple of times.

[woodee12]

I have to admit that I do enjoy it once in a while but am not glued to the TV every week this year. Watched it more in years past.

Good comments and I actually will start watching more as it gets down to the wire and try to find the long shot.

Big thing with these phone votes is who the public likes and more than that the public in the age demographic of 14-20, focusing more on the girls. Kellie is a good long shot, but I can also see a guy take it this year since last years winner was a girl. Just a thought, but alos seelms girls take off more after the show i.e. Carrie Underwood and Kelly Clarkson vs. Ruben and Clay.

I am going to pay closer attention tonight and maybe get a good angle on future bets. Like your long-shot call too.

Lets chat as this season winds down.

[woodee12]

Bucky's gone!!

2-0 in American Idol betting for me. I think I finally found my sport. I will release my American Idol Lock of the year next week.

Played Katherine Mcphee +310 to win it all also.

[brink]

I was surprised Bucky got the boot. Thought he did a good job this week.

Best odds still on the board for a contestant with a shot at winning would still be Pickler I think.....

[Skillz]

impressive woody keep em coming Im tailin next week! lol

[woodee12]

This week, 4/18-19.

Ace Young barely made it last week. Going to lay the number at -117 that he gets eliminated before the performance show airs this week as I can see odds going back up to -145 plus to him. Hung on last week but will be gone this week.

Ace Young -117 to be eliminated on 4/19.

[brink]

Tough to make a play before the performance. One of the underdogs could put in the performance of a lifetime and buy a little more time.

I'm going with that scenario. That Ace manages to hang on another week.

In that case, I'll take a shot on two others that I think are knocking on the door of elimination.

Elliot Yamin +351

Paris Bennett +499

Also, a prop on who will last longer:

Pickler +155
Mcphee -173

I just think this Pickler chick is extremely marketable and more appealing in a "pop star" kinda way than Mcphee. She also takes more chances where as this Mcphee is a great singer but pretty much does the same boring thing every week. Just can't see her selling records, which is what this thing is all about.

[woodee12]

Just say it, you think Kellie is Hotter. And I agree!!


Thanks for the input. I may play a doggy too after tonights show.

Good luck!

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Pickler was hands down, the worst of the bunch last night. Interestingly enough, Pinnacle doesn't have odds up on each contestant to be eliminated as of 330 pm est. They only have odds on Ace Young yes/no

Here is the dialidol rankings, which say Ace Young gets the boot. Bound to be eliminations that are unexpected so I still think there may be some value with the NO on Ace Young at +193....

Good look woodee.

DialIdol
Rank Idol DialIdol Score Margin Of Error Actual Rank
1-3 Taylor Hicks 30.774 1.574 -
1-3 Elliott Yamin 30.29 1.579 -
1-3 Katharine McPhee 27.763 1.608 -
4-6 Kellie Pickler 27.188 1.614 -
4-6 Chris Daughtry 25.409 1.634 -
4-6 Paris Bennett 24.376 1.645 -
7 Ace Young 20.5 1.687 -

[woodee12]

Ace is gone!

3-0 so far. May get tougher now!

[woodee12]

Tough call tonight. Think Paris is gone but won't play the -328 odds on her.

Kellie is next at +400. Is there a shot she could be gone?

[woodee12]

Going to throw a small amount at Elliot +1000 for tonight's elimination.

Think Paris is gone buit worht a shot.

[brink]

Looks like there's been some heavy action on Pickler getting the boot. All the way down to +115 now and still dropping.

I was going to take a shot on her getting eliminated earlier today but now the value is gone. I never expected the price to drop that fast.

But I agree with the move. Of the remaining contestants, she is the least talented and it really showed the last two weeks. She is not on the same level as the others. But damn, she looks good!

Dial Idol has the bottom 3 as Mcphee, Pickler and Bennet.

Mcphee at +4061 may be worth a shot.

Elliot now at +2000 may be worth a shot as well. He's been in the bottom three a few times already which should give us an idea of his fan base.

So basically hoping that Picklers fan bese gets her by one more week even though she is the least talented, and hoping Paris Bennet makes it thru leaving the two big dogs as the next most likely to get the boot and making me a nice score in the process

Mcphee and Elliot

[woodee12]

shes still hot.

probably haven't see the last of her. Still have McPhee to win it all.