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RAS NCAA Football - Week 2 - Final Report
RAS - NCAA Football - Week 2 Final Report
-- NEXT UPDATE will be before 10:00pm Pacific on Sunday, September 5th.
We are early with this weeks report due to extra preperation time and no game tapes to review. UCLA did not make it as an official RAS play due to injuries on defense. One starting DL and one starting LB are out as well as one backup LB. A few others are nicked up. I still expect a good overall showing but will keep it only as an early look. Five of our six released plays thus far have seen line moves of at least a point. I recommend placing all wagers as early as possible.
Week 2 recap of plays:
Sunday Night Early Looks (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
Northwestern +7.5
Washington State -1
Vanderbilt +5
UCLA -1
Official RAS Plays (recommended as 1 UNIT plays)
Eastern Michigan -6
Vanderbilt +4
BYU/Notre Dame Over 44
Two official RAS plays for Saturday:
Vanderbilt +4 over South Carolina - 9:30am Pacific (Saturday)
This game is of immeasurable importance to the Commodores. They have 7 "winnable" games this year and there has been much talk about the prospects of them reaching a bowl game for the first time in 22 years. Don't laugh now, but they do have a chance. It all starts with this opening game. Vandy has suffered through two years of futility under 3rd year coach Bobby Johnson (2-10 in both of first two seasons). He has fielded some of the youngest SEC teams you could imagine but this year is what they have been working towards. Vandy returns 10 starters on offense and 11 starters on defense! Vandy features an offensive and defensive lineman who were named to the preseason all-SEC team. Starting QB Jay Cutler is a legitimate NFL prospect. He has received rave reviews in fall practices for better decision making. The receiving group is said to be much improved as well. Running back duo of Kwane Doster and Norval McKenzie remains in tact. The defense features SEC sack leader Jovan Haye, stud LB Moses Osemwegie (126 tackles, 10.5 for loss last year) and 9 other returning starters. For the first time in a while, Vandy has competitive SEC team. Excitement and expectations are high.
South Carolina is coming off back to back 5-7 seasons. Their offense has struggled the last two seasons and even with 9 returning starters back it is hard to foresee major improvement with QB Pinkins still the starter. He is for the most part an inconsistent passer and decision maker. He completed only 50.3% of his passes last year. Head coach Holtz made some coaching changes since last season. He has named himself as offensive coordinator and has brought in former Cincinnati head coach Rick Minter as his new defensive coordinator. Minter will be the third coordinator in three years as the Gamecocks miss former DC Charlie Strong who moved on to Florida prior to last season after great success here. They allowed 26.2ppg last season which is the most in the Holtz era. Eight starters are back but the losses were key performers LB Garrison (leading tackler), CB Robinson (1st round draft choice), and CB Eiland (6th round draft choice). The secondary remains suspect.
Vanderbilt should have confidence heading into this game. They actually outgained the Gamecocks 456-to-379 in last years meeting in Columbia. SC capitalized on two turnovers deep in Vandy territory to take a 21-3 early lead. Vandy fought back but eventually lost 35-24 finishing with a -3 turnover ratio. Quote from Lou Holtz after the game, "I went to Skip when we were up 28-10 and said we can't stop them, you will have to control it on offense." With almost everyone back and now playing at home a year later they must feel they have a good chance of turning the tables.
There has to at least be a fair chance that South Carolina is looking ahead to their huge home opener vs Georgia next week. Meanwhile, this could not be any bigger of a game for Vandy who has a BYE following this. If South Carolina does not show major improvement from last season and bring their A game, they will lose this game outright. The Gamecocks ended last season with 4 straight losses and are just 3-7 ATS (0-2 ATS on road) in the role of the favorite in past two seasons. They are also 1-4-1 ATS in season openers under Holtz. Even with extremely young teams, the Commodores are 5-2-2 ATS as a home dog under Bobby Johnson. One of those ties was a heartbreaking 7 point OT loss to bowl bound Georgia Tech last season. Bobby Johnson is a good coach who will have his team ready to play. He is also a Columbia native which only gives him even more desire to win this game. Take the points.
Vanderbilt 1 UNIT
Notre Dame at BYU (Over 44) - 6:15pm Pacific (Saturday)
BYU head coach Gary Crowton is considered to be an excellent offensive coach. He was the offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears four years ago, and three years ago his first BYU team averaged a whopping 44.1 points per game. You can imagine how disappointed and embarrassed he must be with the Cougars offensive output the last two seasons. In particular last year when BYU only averaged 16.3 points per game and in their season finale were shut out for the first time in 28 years. The offensive struggles can be attributed to a merry go round at QB and several other injuries and suspensions to key personnel. The Cougars returned just 3 offensive starters in 2002 and 5 in 2003. Four different QB's saw significant time in 2002 and 3 different in 2003 due to injuries and erratic play. The 2004 BYU offense looks to be much improved.
In the offseason Crowton promised to take responsibility for play calling this year. Not only do I expect a big offensive improvement, but you can be assured that the Cougars will be taking to the air more often and this years team is built just for that. BYU lost its top two RB's to graduation and honor code violation but they are loaded with talented receivers. Sophomore QB John Beck has been named the opening game starter. Even as a freshman last year he was the teams most consistent QB. He is also said to have made great strides in the offseason. Junior WR Chris Hale was probably the best receiver on the team last year but was limited by injury. Senior WR Rod Wilkerson has 22 career starts under his belt. Sophomore TE Daniel Coats was unstoppable in many games last year. He earned freshman all-American honors and this year is on the Mackey Award watch list for the nations top tight end. The big news at receiver is the addition of JC all-American Todd Watkins. He is 6-3 and is a speed burner. There has been a lot of hype surrounding him and early reports indicate he is even better than the hype. Insiders are already calling him the best WR in the conference! The offensive line got a new coach in Jeff Grimes (formerly at Arizona State) and he has talent to work with. Last year three QB's combined for only 12 touchdowns, threw 21 interceptions, and were sacked 35 times. Expect a drastic improvement.
Defensively, BYU only returns 3 starters and they have been dealt a rash of injuries on this side of the ball. Their top two defensive tackles Manaia Brown and Daniel Marquardt both were sidelined for the majority of fall camp. Both are now expected to start but I do not believe they will be at their best. Meanwhile, LB's Paul Walkenhorst and Bryant Atkinson, two potential starters will miss the season with injuries. Another LB, touted JC transfer Lawrence Cowan is also out. Starting "catback", sophomore K.C. Bills, recently suffered a shoulder injury and will miss the season. BYU gave up 25.8 points per game last season and it is unlikely the defense will be any better this year, especially early on.
Notre Dame returns 8 starters on offense and should do much better than the 20.3ppg they averaged last season. They received poor play from starter Carlyle Holiday at QB and true freshman Brady Quinn came on to start the final 9 games. Quinn got a fast education facing the likes of Purdue, Pitt, USC, Boston College, and Florida State last year. He did very well for a true freshman and should have a nice sophomore year as he is surrounded by very talented teammates at every position. UND returns its top two receivers and 8 of the their top 10 offensive lineman. They must replace top RB Jones but they have plenty of talented backs. Almost every starter in this unit came in highly recruited out of high school. This will be the third year in Willingham's offense and this should be by far the most efficient passing game they have had since his arrival.
Defensively, ND returns 6 starters but lost star leading tackler Courtney Watson to the NFL. LB Brandon Hoye (practiced for the first time in pads on Wednesday) who was 2nd to Watson in tackles last year has missed significant practice time leading up to this game but now is expected to give it a go. The defensive line lost two starters and the secondary is a big question mark with three losses to graduation, two of which were drafted. Starting CB was just decided a few days ago and starting strong safety was just announced on Wednesday. When CB Preston Jackson was named the starter, there were a lot of moans and groans on the Irish message boards as he is not a well regarded player. Newly named starting SS Lionel Bolen has just one career start and has been used sparingly in his first three seasons. Additionally, last years sack leader DE Justin Tuck (13.5 sacks) had knee surgery in the offseason and coaches indicate they will use a four man rotation at defensive end.
UND won last years meeting 33-14 (47 points) and I expect both offenses to be significantly improved while the two defenses will be similar at best. Both teams do not have a big name running back to feature and will be looking to pass to very talented receivers against suspect secondaries. BYU in particular will be looking to spread the field and put the ball in the air which makes for a longer game and more opportunities for points. BYU has averaged 45.3 points per game in season openers in the Crowton era. Take the over.
Over 44 1 UNIT
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
-- NEXT UPDATE will be before 10:00pm Pacific on Sunday, September 5th.
We are early with this weeks report due to extra preperation time and no game tapes to review. UCLA did not make it as an official RAS play due to injuries on defense. One starting DL and one starting LB are out as well as one backup LB. A few others are nicked up. I still expect a good overall showing but will keep it only as an early look. Five of our six released plays thus far have seen line moves of at least a point. I recommend placing all wagers as early as possible.
Week 2 recap of plays:
Sunday Night Early Looks (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
Northwestern +7.5
Washington State -1
Vanderbilt +5
UCLA -1
Official RAS Plays (recommended as 1 UNIT plays)
Eastern Michigan -6
Vanderbilt +4
BYU/Notre Dame Over 44
Two official RAS plays for Saturday:
Vanderbilt +4 over South Carolina - 9:30am Pacific (Saturday)
This game is of immeasurable importance to the Commodores. They have 7 "winnable" games this year and there has been much talk about the prospects of them reaching a bowl game for the first time in 22 years. Don't laugh now, but they do have a chance. It all starts with this opening game. Vandy has suffered through two years of futility under 3rd year coach Bobby Johnson (2-10 in both of first two seasons). He has fielded some of the youngest SEC teams you could imagine but this year is what they have been working towards. Vandy returns 10 starters on offense and 11 starters on defense! Vandy features an offensive and defensive lineman who were named to the preseason all-SEC team. Starting QB Jay Cutler is a legitimate NFL prospect. He has received rave reviews in fall practices for better decision making. The receiving group is said to be much improved as well. Running back duo of Kwane Doster and Norval McKenzie remains in tact. The defense features SEC sack leader Jovan Haye, stud LB Moses Osemwegie (126 tackles, 10.5 for loss last year) and 9 other returning starters. For the first time in a while, Vandy has competitive SEC team. Excitement and expectations are high.
South Carolina is coming off back to back 5-7 seasons. Their offense has struggled the last two seasons and even with 9 returning starters back it is hard to foresee major improvement with QB Pinkins still the starter. He is for the most part an inconsistent passer and decision maker. He completed only 50.3% of his passes last year. Head coach Holtz made some coaching changes since last season. He has named himself as offensive coordinator and has brought in former Cincinnati head coach Rick Minter as his new defensive coordinator. Minter will be the third coordinator in three years as the Gamecocks miss former DC Charlie Strong who moved on to Florida prior to last season after great success here. They allowed 26.2ppg last season which is the most in the Holtz era. Eight starters are back but the losses were key performers LB Garrison (leading tackler), CB Robinson (1st round draft choice), and CB Eiland (6th round draft choice). The secondary remains suspect.
Vanderbilt should have confidence heading into this game. They actually outgained the Gamecocks 456-to-379 in last years meeting in Columbia. SC capitalized on two turnovers deep in Vandy territory to take a 21-3 early lead. Vandy fought back but eventually lost 35-24 finishing with a -3 turnover ratio. Quote from Lou Holtz after the game, "I went to Skip when we were up 28-10 and said we can't stop them, you will have to control it on offense." With almost everyone back and now playing at home a year later they must feel they have a good chance of turning the tables.
There has to at least be a fair chance that South Carolina is looking ahead to their huge home opener vs Georgia next week. Meanwhile, this could not be any bigger of a game for Vandy who has a BYE following this. If South Carolina does not show major improvement from last season and bring their A game, they will lose this game outright. The Gamecocks ended last season with 4 straight losses and are just 3-7 ATS (0-2 ATS on road) in the role of the favorite in past two seasons. They are also 1-4-1 ATS in season openers under Holtz. Even with extremely young teams, the Commodores are 5-2-2 ATS as a home dog under Bobby Johnson. One of those ties was a heartbreaking 7 point OT loss to bowl bound Georgia Tech last season. Bobby Johnson is a good coach who will have his team ready to play. He is also a Columbia native which only gives him even more desire to win this game. Take the points.
Vanderbilt 1 UNIT
Notre Dame at BYU (Over 44) - 6:15pm Pacific (Saturday)
BYU head coach Gary Crowton is considered to be an excellent offensive coach. He was the offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears four years ago, and three years ago his first BYU team averaged a whopping 44.1 points per game. You can imagine how disappointed and embarrassed he must be with the Cougars offensive output the last two seasons. In particular last year when BYU only averaged 16.3 points per game and in their season finale were shut out for the first time in 28 years. The offensive struggles can be attributed to a merry go round at QB and several other injuries and suspensions to key personnel. The Cougars returned just 3 offensive starters in 2002 and 5 in 2003. Four different QB's saw significant time in 2002 and 3 different in 2003 due to injuries and erratic play. The 2004 BYU offense looks to be much improved.
In the offseason Crowton promised to take responsibility for play calling this year. Not only do I expect a big offensive improvement, but you can be assured that the Cougars will be taking to the air more often and this years team is built just for that. BYU lost its top two RB's to graduation and honor code violation but they are loaded with talented receivers. Sophomore QB John Beck has been named the opening game starter. Even as a freshman last year he was the teams most consistent QB. He is also said to have made great strides in the offseason. Junior WR Chris Hale was probably the best receiver on the team last year but was limited by injury. Senior WR Rod Wilkerson has 22 career starts under his belt. Sophomore TE Daniel Coats was unstoppable in many games last year. He earned freshman all-American honors and this year is on the Mackey Award watch list for the nations top tight end. The big news at receiver is the addition of JC all-American Todd Watkins. He is 6-3 and is a speed burner. There has been a lot of hype surrounding him and early reports indicate he is even better than the hype. Insiders are already calling him the best WR in the conference! The offensive line got a new coach in Jeff Grimes (formerly at Arizona State) and he has talent to work with. Last year three QB's combined for only 12 touchdowns, threw 21 interceptions, and were sacked 35 times. Expect a drastic improvement.
Defensively, BYU only returns 3 starters and they have been dealt a rash of injuries on this side of the ball. Their top two defensive tackles Manaia Brown and Daniel Marquardt both were sidelined for the majority of fall camp. Both are now expected to start but I do not believe they will be at their best. Meanwhile, LB's Paul Walkenhorst and Bryant Atkinson, two potential starters will miss the season with injuries. Another LB, touted JC transfer Lawrence Cowan is also out. Starting "catback", sophomore K.C. Bills, recently suffered a shoulder injury and will miss the season. BYU gave up 25.8 points per game last season and it is unlikely the defense will be any better this year, especially early on.
Notre Dame returns 8 starters on offense and should do much better than the 20.3ppg they averaged last season. They received poor play from starter Carlyle Holiday at QB and true freshman Brady Quinn came on to start the final 9 games. Quinn got a fast education facing the likes of Purdue, Pitt, USC, Boston College, and Florida State last year. He did very well for a true freshman and should have a nice sophomore year as he is surrounded by very talented teammates at every position. UND returns its top two receivers and 8 of the their top 10 offensive lineman. They must replace top RB Jones but they have plenty of talented backs. Almost every starter in this unit came in highly recruited out of high school. This will be the third year in Willingham's offense and this should be by far the most efficient passing game they have had since his arrival.
Defensively, ND returns 6 starters but lost star leading tackler Courtney Watson to the NFL. LB Brandon Hoye (practiced for the first time in pads on Wednesday) who was 2nd to Watson in tackles last year has missed significant practice time leading up to this game but now is expected to give it a go. The defensive line lost two starters and the secondary is a big question mark with three losses to graduation, two of which were drafted. Starting CB was just decided a few days ago and starting strong safety was just announced on Wednesday. When CB Preston Jackson was named the starter, there were a lot of moans and groans on the Irish message boards as he is not a well regarded player. Newly named starting SS Lionel Bolen has just one career start and has been used sparingly in his first three seasons. Additionally, last years sack leader DE Justin Tuck (13.5 sacks) had knee surgery in the offseason and coaches indicate they will use a four man rotation at defensive end.
UND won last years meeting 33-14 (47 points) and I expect both offenses to be significantly improved while the two defenses will be similar at best. Both teams do not have a big name running back to feature and will be looking to pass to very talented receivers against suspect secondaries. BYU in particular will be looking to spread the field and put the ball in the air which makes for a longer game and more opportunities for points. BYU has averaged 45.3 points per game in season openers in the Crowton era. Take the over.
Over 44 1 UNIT
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
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