Tweet
Everything you need to know for the home stretch was summed up in that Tampa Bay game. Sure, they were totally getting their ass kicked, largely because Johnson was tossing away their chances. Sure, they hadn’t shown a heartbeat since early in the first quarter. But with time running out, knowing that every hope of making the playoffs was about to be nailed in for sure, they pulled a rabbit out of their hat and came within one two-point conversion of tieing a game after being down 30-14 with the Falcons 2 yards away from 28. That kind of hunger, desperation – even from a team that wasn’t going to make the playoffs anyway – is what you need to be thinking about for every game hereonout. There is something special about making the playoffs – it is the mark. Conversely, bye weeks and home field – as desireable as they are – don’t hold a candle to those special words: playoff team. The best bet is always a team that has something to prove. If there is no doubt, your bet won’t win out!
I can’t give you exact stats, but it seems like everytime I write “team A has the line value, but screw it and take team B anyway” I’ve lost virtually every time. And I’ve written that a lot. I guess I just don’t like being a slave to value, or the few times I am a slave to value, it looks like I should have heeded schemes or situations more. Equally painful is that the Black Cat curse is simply at full strength. For example, I scan the props from time-to-time. I don’t play them that much but once in a while, something catches my eye. So it was last week when a bright yellow circle surrounded Tim Hasselback vs. Quincy Carter. I knew Parcells wouldn’t let Carter pass the ball too much, and Hasselback is in a system that likes to throw the ball, win or lose. How many of you picked that prop? I’d bet no one. Of course, 0.0 rating was the result of the one stupid prop I played. Its just BLACK or WHITE for me folks, no gray. Picking one prop and getting a full-fledged goose egg? You’d think that would be hard to do, but I seem to pull a Hasselback weekly. I always say it takes just as much skill to be good as it does to be bad. Any fool can go .500, but it takes a true genius to go .295.
So anyway, leave it to me to write something like “Brad Johnson is a Qb who is more likely to win you a game than lose you a game” and Brad goes out there and throws picks every other toss. Its little consolation I nailed the Vikings and the Patriots, especially when the Vikings blew the under in style with a 4th quarter shootout. Was anyone besides me sweating on the under with 17 points to spare for the final quarter? I’m realistic about my powers.
One thing we want to be concerned with now is effort. Who’s given up? For my money, I want effort out there on the field so I’m more wary than ever of teams that are playing bad ball. The problem, though, is that many a team has played bad ball in recent weeks, so there are red flags everywhere.
I like parlays. One, they are good for those who are low on cash cause they banked on Tim (*^*&^ Hasselback. Two, they exploit CORRELATED events. Cause-effect. Hmmm, now why would I mention that at a time like this?
I may have a new favorite highlight show! NFL “Sounds of the Game” walks through the games expertly and gives truly insightful reactions during and after the game that help you put the game into proper context. Comes on a couple days afterwards when things have settled down and this allows them to include the most relevant sound bites from the postgame events and Monday’s news conference. Could definitely prove to become THE must see show. NFL Network, DirecTV!
Does anyone know what the hell “Strength of Victory” is?
Miami +2.5 Buffalo
We all know that Miami hasn’t won in December since the Carter administration. The Dolphins offense looked pretty good the other night, but their defense was a sieve. I think a 6 day rest has a bigger impact on a team late in the season too. Philadelphia is a physical team and their were probably some Miami bumps and bruises on Tuesday morning. The outcome of this game could very well define how these teams are remembered but essentially this is a battle of two 8-8 teams. Because of Miami’s upside, I think the half-point tease is more than fair and they hold the value edge. But Buffalo has been respectable and it looks like snow – which didn’t favor Miami last time and probably won’t this time. I have to look at that 33 over/under and wonder how much defense these teams can muster in any conditions? That's probably the best play.
Detroit +9.5 Carolina
In coming back to beat the Cardinals, the Panthers confirmed how bad they truly are. The coach said the pressure of having to win that game really affected them. Geez, can’t wait to fade these guys come playoff time then! If the pressure of having to beat the CARDINALS to make the playoffs is too much for them? Ouch. That’s like the pressure of having to hit a gimmee putt. I should have anticipated they would overmanage the game and not cover, but I thought it was gutsier to think the Panthers might kill the Cardinals. Now that the “pressure” is off, how will they handle Detroit? You might argue that with the pressure off, the Panthers will open up and have a great game. But lets be honest, in 14 games, have you seen anything that would make you want to lay 10 points on these guys? I thought not. Conversely, their last big blowout had Stephen Davis on the sideline too.
Cleveland +3 Baltimore
Can you put 9 men in the box to stop Jamal Lewis? Cleveland has had some bad games against Baltimore, and this figures to be another one. The line is fair.
Tenn –6 Houston
Jeff Fisher is real hyped about this game, and that’s bad news for the beaten up Texans. If McNair plays, it could get ugly. Carr will start, a big plus, but can he finish? Playoff spot on the line for Titans. Fair line. I’d wait to the 2nd half to find out whats what in these lineups.
Cincy +7 St. Louis
Will the pressure of playoffs get to the Bengals? The team that beat the Chiefs now faces the offense-similar Rams. I’d say play them again. Every season has a giant killer and the Bengals own that mantle right now. I’ll call the line fair.
Dallas –11 NYG
If you want to play for the Cowboys, Parcells says you better play well today. How will the young Cowboys respond to this? Perhaps not well. But the Giants, in the words of their own coach, are a shell of a team. The Giants have the line value, but the wheels have fallen off this wagon. I know many expect the Giants to rally around their fallen coach, but can they? The Cowboys punked a bad team last week. They are bullies and that’s what bullies do. The good thing about betting the Cowboys is that if they win you win and if they lose you win too!
Redskins +4 Bears
While the other 30 teams improve every week, the Redskins stay the same or get worse. The Bears have been competitive for weeks and have moved beyond the Skins in cohesiveness. You had to be impressed how the Skins responded to the news that Spurrier would definitely get another year. With the Skins taking so many bye weeks this season, would you trust your money on them?
SF +7 at Philadelphia
The outcome of this game might relate to the outcome of the Dallas game. Fair line.
Saints +3 Jaguars
The Saints punked the Giants but lets not be too impressed by that. Very typical Saints. Also typical Saints is bad performances. The Jags played poorly last week but they were outclassed. I don’t think that will be the case this week. However, -3 is a real stretch of faith and I’ll give NO line value here.
Arizona +14 Seattle
Arizona, the leagues worst road team by far, goes on the road to face the only NFL team that has destroyed them in Arizona this year with their super-green QB. At least he’s not the one who has melted on the road like Banks did. I can’t advocate taking the Cards in December, but I also think the Seahawks look too easy. Line value to Cards, but I suggest a pass.
Broncos +6 Colts
If Portis doesn’t play, that makes the line value fair and there is a chance the Broncos view their playoff hopes as a gimmee and their matchup better if they lose to the Colts on Sunday. Check Tennessee game results.
Raiders +4.5 Packers
Jerry Rice worries me in this one.
Do Not Let the Black Cat Cross Y-O-U-R PATH!!!
I can’t give you exact stats, but it seems like everytime I write “team A has the line value, but screw it and take team B anyway” I’ve lost virtually every time. And I’ve written that a lot. I guess I just don’t like being a slave to value, or the few times I am a slave to value, it looks like I should have heeded schemes or situations more. Equally painful is that the Black Cat curse is simply at full strength. For example, I scan the props from time-to-time. I don’t play them that much but once in a while, something catches my eye. So it was last week when a bright yellow circle surrounded Tim Hasselback vs. Quincy Carter. I knew Parcells wouldn’t let Carter pass the ball too much, and Hasselback is in a system that likes to throw the ball, win or lose. How many of you picked that prop? I’d bet no one. Of course, 0.0 rating was the result of the one stupid prop I played. Its just BLACK or WHITE for me folks, no gray. Picking one prop and getting a full-fledged goose egg? You’d think that would be hard to do, but I seem to pull a Hasselback weekly. I always say it takes just as much skill to be good as it does to be bad. Any fool can go .500, but it takes a true genius to go .295.
So anyway, leave it to me to write something like “Brad Johnson is a Qb who is more likely to win you a game than lose you a game” and Brad goes out there and throws picks every other toss. Its little consolation I nailed the Vikings and the Patriots, especially when the Vikings blew the under in style with a 4th quarter shootout. Was anyone besides me sweating on the under with 17 points to spare for the final quarter? I’m realistic about my powers.
One thing we want to be concerned with now is effort. Who’s given up? For my money, I want effort out there on the field so I’m more wary than ever of teams that are playing bad ball. The problem, though, is that many a team has played bad ball in recent weeks, so there are red flags everywhere.
I like parlays. One, they are good for those who are low on cash cause they banked on Tim (*^*&^ Hasselback. Two, they exploit CORRELATED events. Cause-effect. Hmmm, now why would I mention that at a time like this?
I may have a new favorite highlight show! NFL “Sounds of the Game” walks through the games expertly and gives truly insightful reactions during and after the game that help you put the game into proper context. Comes on a couple days afterwards when things have settled down and this allows them to include the most relevant sound bites from the postgame events and Monday’s news conference. Could definitely prove to become THE must see show. NFL Network, DirecTV!
Does anyone know what the hell “Strength of Victory” is?
Miami +2.5 Buffalo
We all know that Miami hasn’t won in December since the Carter administration. The Dolphins offense looked pretty good the other night, but their defense was a sieve. I think a 6 day rest has a bigger impact on a team late in the season too. Philadelphia is a physical team and their were probably some Miami bumps and bruises on Tuesday morning. The outcome of this game could very well define how these teams are remembered but essentially this is a battle of two 8-8 teams. Because of Miami’s upside, I think the half-point tease is more than fair and they hold the value edge. But Buffalo has been respectable and it looks like snow – which didn’t favor Miami last time and probably won’t this time. I have to look at that 33 over/under and wonder how much defense these teams can muster in any conditions? That's probably the best play.
Detroit +9.5 Carolina
In coming back to beat the Cardinals, the Panthers confirmed how bad they truly are. The coach said the pressure of having to win that game really affected them. Geez, can’t wait to fade these guys come playoff time then! If the pressure of having to beat the CARDINALS to make the playoffs is too much for them? Ouch. That’s like the pressure of having to hit a gimmee putt. I should have anticipated they would overmanage the game and not cover, but I thought it was gutsier to think the Panthers might kill the Cardinals. Now that the “pressure” is off, how will they handle Detroit? You might argue that with the pressure off, the Panthers will open up and have a great game. But lets be honest, in 14 games, have you seen anything that would make you want to lay 10 points on these guys? I thought not. Conversely, their last big blowout had Stephen Davis on the sideline too.
Cleveland +3 Baltimore
Can you put 9 men in the box to stop Jamal Lewis? Cleveland has had some bad games against Baltimore, and this figures to be another one. The line is fair.
Tenn –6 Houston
Jeff Fisher is real hyped about this game, and that’s bad news for the beaten up Texans. If McNair plays, it could get ugly. Carr will start, a big plus, but can he finish? Playoff spot on the line for Titans. Fair line. I’d wait to the 2nd half to find out whats what in these lineups.
Cincy +7 St. Louis
Will the pressure of playoffs get to the Bengals? The team that beat the Chiefs now faces the offense-similar Rams. I’d say play them again. Every season has a giant killer and the Bengals own that mantle right now. I’ll call the line fair.
Dallas –11 NYG
If you want to play for the Cowboys, Parcells says you better play well today. How will the young Cowboys respond to this? Perhaps not well. But the Giants, in the words of their own coach, are a shell of a team. The Giants have the line value, but the wheels have fallen off this wagon. I know many expect the Giants to rally around their fallen coach, but can they? The Cowboys punked a bad team last week. They are bullies and that’s what bullies do. The good thing about betting the Cowboys is that if they win you win and if they lose you win too!
Redskins +4 Bears
While the other 30 teams improve every week, the Redskins stay the same or get worse. The Bears have been competitive for weeks and have moved beyond the Skins in cohesiveness. You had to be impressed how the Skins responded to the news that Spurrier would definitely get another year. With the Skins taking so many bye weeks this season, would you trust your money on them?
SF +7 at Philadelphia
The outcome of this game might relate to the outcome of the Dallas game. Fair line.
Saints +3 Jaguars
The Saints punked the Giants but lets not be too impressed by that. Very typical Saints. Also typical Saints is bad performances. The Jags played poorly last week but they were outclassed. I don’t think that will be the case this week. However, -3 is a real stretch of faith and I’ll give NO line value here.
Arizona +14 Seattle
Arizona, the leagues worst road team by far, goes on the road to face the only NFL team that has destroyed them in Arizona this year with their super-green QB. At least he’s not the one who has melted on the road like Banks did. I can’t advocate taking the Cards in December, but I also think the Seahawks look too easy. Line value to Cards, but I suggest a pass.
Broncos +6 Colts
If Portis doesn’t play, that makes the line value fair and there is a chance the Broncos view their playoff hopes as a gimmee and their matchup better if they lose to the Colts on Sunday. Check Tennessee game results.
Raiders +4.5 Packers
Jerry Rice worries me in this one.
Do Not Let the Black Cat Cross Y-O-U-R PATH!!!