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THE PIG IS IN THE AIR!
Marc Lawrence’s 2003 College Football Power Plays
By Marc Lawrence • www.PLAYBOOK.com
Thanks to our 2003 PLAYBOOK FOOOTBALL HANDICAPPERS’ YEARBOOK magazine, hot of the presses and on sale now at newsstands across the country, our freshly windexed crystal ball looks into the prospects of each of the 117 Division 1-A football teams for the upcoming campaign. Journey with us for a date with history as we examine the BEST and the WORST situations and games surrounding each team this season. We’ve penciled in the games of interest, and the parameters surrounding those games. Get your scorecards ready as we look to make a little extra bacon this college football season as we take a look inside the BIG 12 for 2003…
BIG 12
Unquestionably the strongest of all college football conferences, and unlike the BIG 10/11, the BIG 12 is not looking to make it a baker’s dozen. They’re content with their potent roster and genuinely excited about the chances of sending an entrant into this year’s BCS title game. The usual supsects include the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State and Colorado with Nebraska and Texas A&M looking to wipe egg off their face while scrambling things up inside a very deep conference.
COLORADO
It will be no surprise to this office when the Buffaloes are named to the AP Pre-Season Top 25 poll. After all, it’s where they’ve resided 12 of the last 14 years. The immediate problem at hand will be picking themselves off the carpet following a disappointing finish last season. “The bowl game and the way it ended up; and the Big 12 championship game, I think that will always leave a scar,” commented head coach Gary Barnett. Another difficulty will be finding a starting quarterback in whom they can feel confident as all the QB’s assembled in the program have taken a total of 10 snaps with the Buffaloes. The strength of this team has been their performance on the road where the Buffaloes are 41-15-1 SU in their last 57 conference away games. It is, afterall, where the Buffalo roams.
PLAY ON: vs Oklahoma (Key as Home Dog)
BAYLOR
After languishing four years at the bottom of the barrel with Kevin Steele the Bears bit their tongue and finally said no thanks. Enter former Kentucky mentor Guy Morriss, a local Texan bent on changing the fate of this fastly fading program. “Our priority is to lay a long-term foundation,” states Morriss. “We want to put discipline and accountability back in the program.” By our account Baylor enters the 2003 season with ONE win in their last THIRTY-SEVEN conference games! They have also won just ONE road game in their last THIRTY games away from Waco. Yes, the Bears have been on a lengthy six-year hibernation, but the feeling here is they just may awaken sooner than the soft-sell time frame Morriss is attempting to peddle. Off a 1-10 ATS season last year there should be value aplenty in ’03.
PASS
IOWA STATE
Let’s see. A 7-7 record, with losses in each of his final four games of the season, and for it you get a $300K raise, to $925K a season, for the next eight years. Not a bad life if your name is Dan McCarney. So it is at Iowa State where all that counts is landing a bowl bid, as the Cyclones have done each of the last three years. Let’s see what happens this year when they host Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas. Throw in a road game at Nebraska and suddenly 7-7 doesn’t look all that bad. Noting State’s 2-30 SU record against ranked opposition of late, and a 0-49-2 mark against Top 5 ranked foes, it’s a good thing McCarney signed on the dotted line when he did.
PLAY AGAINST: vs Texas Tech
KANSAS
2nd year head coach Mark Mangino was recognized as one of the main architects in the rebuilding of two college football powerhouses in the ‘90’s, namely Kansas State and Oklahoma. And given time he will certainly achieve success as the headman in Kansas. They’ll be lead this season by senior QB Bill Whittemore, voted the Big 12’s newcomer of the year last season after transferring over from junior college. Whittemore figures to break every Jayhawks’ passing record before he graduates later this year. With each of their first five games slated against sub .500 competition, they figure to get out of the gate in impressive fashion.
PLAY ON: vs UNLV
KANSAS STATE
The Krispy Kreme King of schedulemakers, Bill Snyder’s notorious reputation takes a back seat to his success. His teams have won 11 or more games five of the past six seasons and are one of only seven teams to have appeared in a bowl game each of the L10Y. Behind star RB Darren Sproles they lead the nation in rushing TD’s last year. In addition, Ell Roberson, the MVP in last year’s Holiday Bowl, has set new KSU quarterback rushing records. His defense finished #1 overall last year at the conclusion of the regular season and his the only one in the nation to be ranked in the Top 5 each of the L6Y. Sure they may have only scheduled two ranked non-conference foes since he took over back in 1989, but hey, you can’t knock success, even if a lot of it comes against a lot of hyphenated-cupcakes.
PLAY ON: vs Troy State
MISSOURI
Thanks to Gary Pinkel, slowly but surely, the football program at Missouri is on the rise. Gradual improvement in each of his first three years on the sidelines in Columbia has fans and supporters excited about football. This year they’ll be led by flashy sophomore QB Brad Smith, only the 2nd player in Division 1-A history to throw for more than 2,000 yards and run for more than 1,000 yards in the same season. In order for the Tigers to turn the corner, however, they’ll need to patch an eroding defense that appears to be on the slide. Until that’s accomplished we can’t tout them too loud. In the meantime, we’ll observe for now.
PASS
NEBRASKA
Entering the 2002 season the Cornhuskers had recorded only two years with less than eight wins since 1962. Make it three, as last season’s 7-7 marked the first time in 41 years they failed to finish above the .500 mark. Following a 3-0 start, head coach Frank Solich’s troops went on to drop seven of their remaining 11 games. As a result six new assistant coaches are in place and Solich is no longer the team’s offensive coordinator. It got so bad last year that the loss to Ole Miss in the Independence Bowl game dropped Nebraska’s record to 127-5 in games against sub .600 opposition. Hard work in the weight room (the team added 775 lbs of muscle while losing 620 lbs of fat) and significant improvement from struggling QB Jamaal Lord should right a lot of wrongs in 2003.
PLAY ON: vs Oklahoma State
OKLAHOMA
Quick quiz: name the winningest Division 1-A college football team this millennium? No, it’s not Miami Florida but instead the Oklahoma Sooners, winners of 36 games since 2000 (one more than the Hurricanes). They are also the #1 ranked team in the ESPN pre-season poll for 2003. A lot of the aforementioned accolades come about as a direct result of Oklahoma’s brilliant 21-2 record in head-to-head games against other fellow bowlers this decade. In fact, in his fours years as head coach Bob Stoops, has held 21 of 24 opponents to 17 < points in games played in Norman. An even more amazing stat occurred in their loss to Oklahoma State. It marked the ONLY TIME the Sooners have never held a lead under Stoops’ direction. Now that’s impressive!
PLAY ON: vs Oklahoma State
OKLAHOMA STATE
A tip of the hat to Cowboys head coach Les Miles is in order. Not only did he become the first coach in OSU history to defeat both Nebraska and Texas A&M in the same season, he knocked off Oklahoma, too. The win over the Cornhuskers was the first for the program in the series since 1961. Junior QB Josh Fields, who also finds the top four RB’s back for another tour, will once again pilot them. Add to the mix All-American WR Rashaun Woods and you know right from the get-go that the Cowboys will be a handful once again in 2003. The feeling here is revenge from his worst loss as the Cowboys head coach, a 44-9 defeat vs Kansas State, will find them fully focused when the Wildcats arrive in mid-October.
PLAY ON: vs Kansas State
TEXAS
Make no mistake about it, the Mack Brown years have been good ones for Texas. One of only two teams (along with Miami Florida) riding a string of at least five straight nine-win seasons (a school record), the graduated Longhorns class of 2002 went 40-12, including 26-6 inside the Big 12. It represents the largest winning margin at Texas since 1972. They enter the 2003 campaign off back-to-back 11-win seasons for the first time ever. In fact, one needs to go back to the 1977-78 season to find the last back-to-back Top 10 season ending finishes for the Horns. Star QB Chris Simms (26-6 as a starter) is gone, but his main target, WR Roy Williams isn’t and he may be the best player in the country. Yes indeed, things are so good for Brown he even has his own web site (www.mackbrown-texasfootball.com).
PLAY AGAINST: vs Rice
TEXAS A&M
Perhaps it was the Nebraska game in which the Aggies allowed more rushing yards in any game over the L32Y. Or the fact their five-year bowl streak was snapped. Regardless, despite the fact that former mentor R.C. Slocum was the winningest coach in Texas A&M history, the Aggies simply couldn’t resist roping in former two-time national coach of the year Dennis Franchione to take his place. In his 20-year career as a head coach Franchione has amassed an impressive 155-73-2 (.678) winning record, enjoying 17 winning seasons. Over the last three years his teams have lost just two regular season games each year. In a smart move, Coach Fran brings along Carl Torbush, his defensive coordinator at Alabama each of the L2Y. There’s no question he’ll be as huge a success here, too. At what price, though, is the question?
PLAY AGAINST: vs Oklahoma
TEXAS TECH
No doubt about it, it’s difficult losing a quarterback who set 17 NCAA records and tied three others. Thanks in a large part to QB Kliff Kingsbury the Red Raiders have seen their offense improve form 325 YPG to 490 the last three years under head coach Mike Leach. As a result Leach is the only head coach in TTRR history to take his team to a bowl game in each of the first three years. That’s what happens when your team scores 42 > points nine times in one season, as they did last year. With Kingsbury trying to play his way onto a NFL roster, the Red Raiders will look for the newfound ‘system’ to be the key to future successes. A schedule loaded with no less than nine .500 > foes will certainly put this team to the test.
PLAY AGAINST: vs NC State
EDITOR’S NOTE: Marc Lawrence publishes the 248-page PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL HANDICAPPERS’ YEARBOOK magazine, sold on newsstands nationwide. The 2003 edition examines the 32 NFL teams and 117 Division 1-A college teams in depth. To obtain a copy visit www.PLAYBOOK.com or call 1-800-PLAYBOOK.
Marc Lawrence’s 2003 College Football Power Plays
By Marc Lawrence • www.PLAYBOOK.com
Thanks to our 2003 PLAYBOOK FOOOTBALL HANDICAPPERS’ YEARBOOK magazine, hot of the presses and on sale now at newsstands across the country, our freshly windexed crystal ball looks into the prospects of each of the 117 Division 1-A football teams for the upcoming campaign. Journey with us for a date with history as we examine the BEST and the WORST situations and games surrounding each team this season. We’ve penciled in the games of interest, and the parameters surrounding those games. Get your scorecards ready as we look to make a little extra bacon this college football season as we take a look inside the BIG 12 for 2003…
BIG 12
Unquestionably the strongest of all college football conferences, and unlike the BIG 10/11, the BIG 12 is not looking to make it a baker’s dozen. They’re content with their potent roster and genuinely excited about the chances of sending an entrant into this year’s BCS title game. The usual supsects include the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State and Colorado with Nebraska and Texas A&M looking to wipe egg off their face while scrambling things up inside a very deep conference.
COLORADO
It will be no surprise to this office when the Buffaloes are named to the AP Pre-Season Top 25 poll. After all, it’s where they’ve resided 12 of the last 14 years. The immediate problem at hand will be picking themselves off the carpet following a disappointing finish last season. “The bowl game and the way it ended up; and the Big 12 championship game, I think that will always leave a scar,” commented head coach Gary Barnett. Another difficulty will be finding a starting quarterback in whom they can feel confident as all the QB’s assembled in the program have taken a total of 10 snaps with the Buffaloes. The strength of this team has been their performance on the road where the Buffaloes are 41-15-1 SU in their last 57 conference away games. It is, afterall, where the Buffalo roams.
PLAY ON: vs Oklahoma (Key as Home Dog)
BAYLOR
After languishing four years at the bottom of the barrel with Kevin Steele the Bears bit their tongue and finally said no thanks. Enter former Kentucky mentor Guy Morriss, a local Texan bent on changing the fate of this fastly fading program. “Our priority is to lay a long-term foundation,” states Morriss. “We want to put discipline and accountability back in the program.” By our account Baylor enters the 2003 season with ONE win in their last THIRTY-SEVEN conference games! They have also won just ONE road game in their last THIRTY games away from Waco. Yes, the Bears have been on a lengthy six-year hibernation, but the feeling here is they just may awaken sooner than the soft-sell time frame Morriss is attempting to peddle. Off a 1-10 ATS season last year there should be value aplenty in ’03.
PASS
IOWA STATE
Let’s see. A 7-7 record, with losses in each of his final four games of the season, and for it you get a $300K raise, to $925K a season, for the next eight years. Not a bad life if your name is Dan McCarney. So it is at Iowa State where all that counts is landing a bowl bid, as the Cyclones have done each of the last three years. Let’s see what happens this year when they host Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas. Throw in a road game at Nebraska and suddenly 7-7 doesn’t look all that bad. Noting State’s 2-30 SU record against ranked opposition of late, and a 0-49-2 mark against Top 5 ranked foes, it’s a good thing McCarney signed on the dotted line when he did.
PLAY AGAINST: vs Texas Tech
KANSAS
2nd year head coach Mark Mangino was recognized as one of the main architects in the rebuilding of two college football powerhouses in the ‘90’s, namely Kansas State and Oklahoma. And given time he will certainly achieve success as the headman in Kansas. They’ll be lead this season by senior QB Bill Whittemore, voted the Big 12’s newcomer of the year last season after transferring over from junior college. Whittemore figures to break every Jayhawks’ passing record before he graduates later this year. With each of their first five games slated against sub .500 competition, they figure to get out of the gate in impressive fashion.
PLAY ON: vs UNLV
KANSAS STATE
The Krispy Kreme King of schedulemakers, Bill Snyder’s notorious reputation takes a back seat to his success. His teams have won 11 or more games five of the past six seasons and are one of only seven teams to have appeared in a bowl game each of the L10Y. Behind star RB Darren Sproles they lead the nation in rushing TD’s last year. In addition, Ell Roberson, the MVP in last year’s Holiday Bowl, has set new KSU quarterback rushing records. His defense finished #1 overall last year at the conclusion of the regular season and his the only one in the nation to be ranked in the Top 5 each of the L6Y. Sure they may have only scheduled two ranked non-conference foes since he took over back in 1989, but hey, you can’t knock success, even if a lot of it comes against a lot of hyphenated-cupcakes.
PLAY ON: vs Troy State
MISSOURI
Thanks to Gary Pinkel, slowly but surely, the football program at Missouri is on the rise. Gradual improvement in each of his first three years on the sidelines in Columbia has fans and supporters excited about football. This year they’ll be led by flashy sophomore QB Brad Smith, only the 2nd player in Division 1-A history to throw for more than 2,000 yards and run for more than 1,000 yards in the same season. In order for the Tigers to turn the corner, however, they’ll need to patch an eroding defense that appears to be on the slide. Until that’s accomplished we can’t tout them too loud. In the meantime, we’ll observe for now.
PASS
NEBRASKA
Entering the 2002 season the Cornhuskers had recorded only two years with less than eight wins since 1962. Make it three, as last season’s 7-7 marked the first time in 41 years they failed to finish above the .500 mark. Following a 3-0 start, head coach Frank Solich’s troops went on to drop seven of their remaining 11 games. As a result six new assistant coaches are in place and Solich is no longer the team’s offensive coordinator. It got so bad last year that the loss to Ole Miss in the Independence Bowl game dropped Nebraska’s record to 127-5 in games against sub .600 opposition. Hard work in the weight room (the team added 775 lbs of muscle while losing 620 lbs of fat) and significant improvement from struggling QB Jamaal Lord should right a lot of wrongs in 2003.
PLAY ON: vs Oklahoma State
OKLAHOMA
Quick quiz: name the winningest Division 1-A college football team this millennium? No, it’s not Miami Florida but instead the Oklahoma Sooners, winners of 36 games since 2000 (one more than the Hurricanes). They are also the #1 ranked team in the ESPN pre-season poll for 2003. A lot of the aforementioned accolades come about as a direct result of Oklahoma’s brilliant 21-2 record in head-to-head games against other fellow bowlers this decade. In fact, in his fours years as head coach Bob Stoops, has held 21 of 24 opponents to 17 < points in games played in Norman. An even more amazing stat occurred in their loss to Oklahoma State. It marked the ONLY TIME the Sooners have never held a lead under Stoops’ direction. Now that’s impressive!
PLAY ON: vs Oklahoma State
OKLAHOMA STATE
A tip of the hat to Cowboys head coach Les Miles is in order. Not only did he become the first coach in OSU history to defeat both Nebraska and Texas A&M in the same season, he knocked off Oklahoma, too. The win over the Cornhuskers was the first for the program in the series since 1961. Junior QB Josh Fields, who also finds the top four RB’s back for another tour, will once again pilot them. Add to the mix All-American WR Rashaun Woods and you know right from the get-go that the Cowboys will be a handful once again in 2003. The feeling here is revenge from his worst loss as the Cowboys head coach, a 44-9 defeat vs Kansas State, will find them fully focused when the Wildcats arrive in mid-October.
PLAY ON: vs Kansas State
TEXAS
Make no mistake about it, the Mack Brown years have been good ones for Texas. One of only two teams (along with Miami Florida) riding a string of at least five straight nine-win seasons (a school record), the graduated Longhorns class of 2002 went 40-12, including 26-6 inside the Big 12. It represents the largest winning margin at Texas since 1972. They enter the 2003 campaign off back-to-back 11-win seasons for the first time ever. In fact, one needs to go back to the 1977-78 season to find the last back-to-back Top 10 season ending finishes for the Horns. Star QB Chris Simms (26-6 as a starter) is gone, but his main target, WR Roy Williams isn’t and he may be the best player in the country. Yes indeed, things are so good for Brown he even has his own web site (www.mackbrown-texasfootball.com).
PLAY AGAINST: vs Rice
TEXAS A&M
Perhaps it was the Nebraska game in which the Aggies allowed more rushing yards in any game over the L32Y. Or the fact their five-year bowl streak was snapped. Regardless, despite the fact that former mentor R.C. Slocum was the winningest coach in Texas A&M history, the Aggies simply couldn’t resist roping in former two-time national coach of the year Dennis Franchione to take his place. In his 20-year career as a head coach Franchione has amassed an impressive 155-73-2 (.678) winning record, enjoying 17 winning seasons. Over the last three years his teams have lost just two regular season games each year. In a smart move, Coach Fran brings along Carl Torbush, his defensive coordinator at Alabama each of the L2Y. There’s no question he’ll be as huge a success here, too. At what price, though, is the question?
PLAY AGAINST: vs Oklahoma
TEXAS TECH
No doubt about it, it’s difficult losing a quarterback who set 17 NCAA records and tied three others. Thanks in a large part to QB Kliff Kingsbury the Red Raiders have seen their offense improve form 325 YPG to 490 the last three years under head coach Mike Leach. As a result Leach is the only head coach in TTRR history to take his team to a bowl game in each of the first three years. That’s what happens when your team scores 42 > points nine times in one season, as they did last year. With Kingsbury trying to play his way onto a NFL roster, the Red Raiders will look for the newfound ‘system’ to be the key to future successes. A schedule loaded with no less than nine .500 > foes will certainly put this team to the test.
PLAY AGAINST: vs NC State
EDITOR’S NOTE: Marc Lawrence publishes the 248-page PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL HANDICAPPERS’ YEARBOOK magazine, sold on newsstands nationwide. The 2003 edition examines the 32 NFL teams and 117 Division 1-A college teams in depth. To obtain a copy visit www.PLAYBOOK.com or call 1-800-PLAYBOOK.