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INSIDE the NUMBERS: Here’s the “TOTAL PICTURE” on betting NFL OVER / UNDERS for the 2003 season!
The “forgotten” world of NFL Handicapping: TOTALS PLAYS….. With updated information and a NEW Over / Under publication, the previously unaccessable data in this area is now available to ALL sharp players!
From Victor King / KING CREOLE Sports
As we prepare to PROFIT in the 2003 NFL season, there’s a area of Pro Football handicapping that’s been neglected for far TOO long: TOTALS PLAYS….. Sure, there’s tons of data, results, trends and history in the field of NFL Side Plays….. but there’s been no help available for the player who likes to wager on the OVER / UNDERS. But NOT any more! The PLAYBOOK “ULTIMATE” OVER / UNDER Report is a publication that the team at KING CREOLE Sports created last season and it’s debut was SMASHING success. Containing over 4400 Situational and Technical O/U trends….. It’s now been updated for 2003 and this publication is ready to be delivered to all interested parties. Total cost for this “must have” subsciption is $69.95. For that price, you get the following: A copy of the 2003 ANNUAL with updated O/U statistics through last year’s results. A full-season weekly subsricption for 2003 updated each Monday and mailed out on Tuesday mornings. Two FREE weekly OVER / UNDER winners in each issue. Available via the mail or DOWNLOADABLE each week off the Playbook website.
If you like playing ther TOTALS in NFL action, then this publication is for you! Call the PLAYBOOK offices at 1-800-321-7777 to order your full-season subsciption today. To “whet your whistle”, we proudly submit our NFL Totals Plays PREVIEW for the upcoming season. The trends revealed below are just a “taste” of what you can get when you are a full-season subscriber to the “ULTIMATE” Over / Under Report. Good luck this season, and don’t forget that KING CREOLE Handicapper selections are offered on a daily basis on the PLAYBOOK website (www.playbook.com)!
All NFL teams are covered. First off there are statistics on Offense from last year (yards per game and points per game)…. And then Defense. We then tackle key additions and subtractions for each team’s offense for this season. Finally, we reveal 4-5 pertinent “OVER” and “UNDER” numbers for each team in the League.
ARIZONA CARDINALS - OFFENSE: 285.2 ypg (113.9 rush / 171.3 pass / 16.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 376.3 ypg (134.1 rush / 242.1 pass / 26.1 ppg). Offensive additions: Jeff Blake (QB), Emmitt Smith (RB), Bryant Johnson (rookie WR / Penn St), and Anquan Boldin (rookie WR / Florida St). Offensive subtractions: Jake Plummer (QB), David Boston (WR). The Cardinals will look to jump-start their offense this season with Jeff (the “Bomber”) Blake and the two rookie additions at wide out. The result should be some slightly higher point totals on offense…. And a few more “picks” (for touchdowns!) on defense. Either way, the trends that have been favoring the UNDER in recent Cardinal seasons should begin to gradually “skew” to the OVER side. 5 out of their last 6 games went “OVER” last season. Playing in a division where they are clearly the No. 4 team, five wins is probably as optimistic as any Cardinals fan can be. KEY OVER trends: 5-1 O/U as a road dog of 10> pts…. and 4-1 O/U away off BB SU wins. KEY UNDER trends: 7-14 O/U with a line of 36.5 – 39.5…. 1-5 O/U home vs .400 < opponents…. and 0-4 O/U playing off the BYE week.
ATLANTA FALCONS - OFFENSE: 345.9 ypg (147.9 rush / 197.9 pass / 25.1 PPG). DEFENSE: 333.4 ypg (127.9 rush / 205.4 pass / 19.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Peerless Price (WR), Martay Jenkins (WR), Jon Olinger (rookie WR / Cincinnati). Offensive subtractions: Shawn Jefferson (WR), Reggie Kelly (TE). The Falcon playoff season of 2002 was actually two seasons in one, “Totally”-speaking. 2-6 O/U in the first half…. And 6-2 O/U in the second. The offense came on like gangbusters late in the year, while the defense totally collapsed. With the addition of Peerless Price and Martay Jenkins, we see Atlanta airing it out a little more in 2003 and the maturation of Michael Vick (only 197 passing yards per game last year) should accelerate that process. If the Falcons want to take the next step to title contender, they'll need T.J. Duckett to be more productive. KEY OVER trends: 8-3 O/U away off a SU win…. and 6-3 O/U away vs after scoring 24> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U home vs .600> opponents…. 8-14 O/U vs Division foes… and 0-6 O/U as a home FAV of 3< pts.
BALTIMORE RAVENS - OFFENSE: 289.9 ypg (112.0 rush / 177.9 pass / 19.8 PPG). DEFENSE: 334.6 ypg (110.1 rush / 224.4 pass / 22.1 PPG). Offensive additions: Frank Sanders (WR), Marcus Robinson (WR), Kyle Boller (rookie QB / California), Musa Smith (rookie RB / Georgia). Offensive subtractions: Jeff Blake (QB), Sam Gash (FB). Baltimore should once again field one of the best defenses in the NFL, and there should be major improvement in the rushing yards ALLOWED category. Last year was the first in four seasons that they allowed over 100 yards per game on the ground. With a healthy Jamal Lewis… the free-agent wide receiver signings… and the development from Chris Redman and Todd Heap, offensive scoring should improve as well. With their Defense, Baltimore will be in a lot of games and if they can win more of the close ones than they lose, a spot in the playoffs is a possibility. KEY OVER trends: 5-2 O/U as a home FAV of 3.5 – 6.5 pts…. and 4-1 O/U off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 0-6 O/;U away with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts…. 1-6 O/U as a double-digit home FAV…. and 3-15 O/U vs non-conference opponents.
BUFFALO BILLS - OFFENSE: 349.4 ypg (99.8 rush / 249.7 pass / 23.7 PPG). DEFENSE: 324.3 ypg (132.6 rush / 191.7 pass / 24.8 PPG). Offensive additions: Olandis Gary (RB), James Jett (WR), Bobby Shaw (WR), Sam Gash (FB), Willis McGahee (rookie RB / Miami), Rian Lindell (K). Offensive subtractions: Peerless Price (WR), Mike Hollis (K), Shawn Bryson (RB), Larry Centers (RB). It’s not surprising that he Bills drafted Defensive players in 3 of the first 4 rounds of the 2003 Draft. Improving the RUSH defense is a top priority for this season. On the Offensive side, they made up for the loss of Price with the addition of deep threat Jett. Last season, they started off with six straight “OVERS”… but actually finished on a 1-9 “UNDER” run. If the Bills indeed make major strides on defense and continue to score in bunches, they should contend for a playoff spot. KEY OVER trends: 4-1 O/U as a home DOG of 3.5 > pts…. 8-2 O/U away vs non-conference opponents… and 6-2 O/U away off BB SU wins. KEY UNDER trends: 2-7 O/U home with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts…. and 2-5 O/U home off a SU win.
CAROLINA PANTHERS - OFFENSE: 267.5 ypg (99.1 rush / 168.4 pass / 16.1 PPG). DEFENSE: 290.4 ypg (103.3 rush / 187.1 pass / 18.9 PPG). Offensive additions: Jake Delhomme (QB), Ricky Proehl (WR), Kevin Dyson (WR – but OUT for the year), Mike Seidman (rookie TE / UCLA), Stephen Davis (RB). Offensive subtractions: Wesley Walls (TE), Lamar Smith (RB). You can also add the name of Deshaun Foster (RB) to the “addition” category… as the Panthers should have last year’s rookie healthy for the entire season. Carolina is a team with a lot of “upside” potential. They already field one of the best Defenses in the NFC, and they improved on the offensive line in the Draft (Jordan Gross / OT / Utah and Bruce Nelson / C / Iowa). Success this season on the offensive side will ride squarely on the shoulders of Delhomme/Weinke at QB…. Mushin Muhammed at WR… and Foster/Dee Brown at RB. KEY OVER trends: 4-1 O/U as a home DOG of 3.5 - 6.5 pts… and 6-2 O/U away after scoring 10< pts. KEY UNDER trends: 1-8 O/U as a DOG of 6.5< pts…. 0-6 O/U away with a line of 36< pts…. and 3-11 O/U after scoring 24< pts.
CHICAGO BEARS - OFFENSE: 274.7 ypg (84.0 rush / 190.7 pass / 17.6 PPG). DEFENSE: 350.4 ypg (129.8 rush / 220.6 pass / 23.7 PPG). Offensive additions: Kordell Stewart (QB), Rex Grossman (rookie QB / Florida), Desmond Clark (TE). Offensive subtractions: Jim Miller (QB), Marcus Robinson (WR). With the poor showing on the Defensive side of the ball last year, the Bears attempted to beef up their “D” in the Draft with 5 out of their first 6 selections on Defensive players. The signing of Kordell Stewart is an upgrade at the QB position…. and a healthy Anthony Thomas at RB should help reverse some of the “UNDER” action that came in last year (as last 8 out of 11 games went UNDER). Good news: Bears middle linebacker Brian Urlacher won't be going anywhere else for a long time -- not after signing a $56 million contract on June 3 that will keep him in Chicago through 2011. KEY OVER trends: 7-2 O/U home after scoring 24< pts… and 4-2 O/U as a road DOG of 3.5 – 6.5 pts. KEY UNDER trends: 12-21 O/U as an underdog… 7-14 O/U with a line of 36.5 – 39.5 pts… and 4-11 O/U home off a SU loss.
CINCINNATI BENGALS - OFFENSE: 325.4 ypg (108.1 rush / 217.3 pass / 17.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 329.1 ypg (125.4 rush / 203.7 pass / 28.5 PPG). Offensive additions: Carson Palmer (rookie QB / USC), Shane Matthews (QB), Reggie Kelly (TE), Kelley Washington (rookie WR / Tennessee). Offensive subtractions: Lorenzo Neal (FB), Akili Smith (QB… addition by subtraction?). The Bengals made some big strides on the Defensive side of things last season (allowed only 204 ypg passing)….. but improvement MUST come in stopping the BIG PLAYS, as they still allowed almost 29 ppg. If new coach Marvin Lewis accepts the fact that this team WILL improve by taking “baby steps”, then the potential is there for an up-and-coming power in the AFC….. Built around a solid Defense, a strong running game with Corey Dillon, and a future superstar in Carson Palmer. KEY OVER trends: 4-1 O/U as a road DOG of 3< pts… and 7-0 O/U home vs non-division Conference foes. KEY UNDER trends: 0-6 O/U as a road DOG of 7 – 9.5 pts… 5-11 O/U away off a SU loss… and 1-4 O/U home vs .400< opponents.
CLEVELAND BROWNS - OFFENSE: 314.2 ypg (100.9 rush / 213.3 pass / 21.5 PPG). DEFENSE: 334.2 ypg (129.9 rush / 204.3 pass / 20.0 PPG). Offensive additions: Jeff Faine (rookie C / Notre Dame). Offensive subtractions: Mark Campbell (TE). The Browns have all the ingredients in place for a hell of an Offensive banquet… and they better produce points because there are a ton of question marks on the Defensive side of the ball. With one of the League’s best 1-2 punches at QB (Couch / Holcombe)… at RB (Green / White / Jackson)… and WR (Johnson / Morgan / Davis / Northcutt), look for a lot of 27-24 type games this season…… and some rock-solid OVER numbers! In a division where at least two foes could find themselves struggling to reach the .500 mark, the Browns could very well finding themselves fighting for the AFC North crown. KEY OVER trends: 15-7 O/U in ALL road games… 9-1 O/U vs non-division Conference opponents… and 3-0 O/U playing with rest. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U home with a line of 36.5 – 39.5 pts… and 4-9 O/U home vs division foes.
DALLAS COWBOYS - OFFENSE: 273.4 ypg (109.6 rush / 163.8 pass / 13.6 PPG). DEFENSE: 329.2 ypg (113.6 rush / 215.6 pass / 20.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Terry Glenn (WR), Richie Anderson (FB), Dan Campbell (TE), Al Johnson (rookie C / Wisconsin). Offensive subtractions: Emmitt Smith (RB), Raghib Ismail (WR). There’s a new Sheriff in town as the Bill Parcells reign begins in “Big D”. With Emmitt gone to Arizona, it’s all up to Troy Hambrick in the backfield… and the addition of Anderson at the FB position should open things up, as well. Both Quincy Carter and Chad Hutchinson will see plenty of playing time at the QB position this season. The Cowboys have an excellent Defensive foundation and if Parcells’ track record is any indication, Dallas has a three- to four-year window to turn things around. Look for immediate improvement in 2003…. and a possible playoff push in 2004. KEY OVER trends: 8-4 O/U as a home DOG of 6.5< pts… and 4-2 O/U home off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 6-12 O/U away off a SU loss… 0-4 O/U as a home FAV of 3< pts… and 3-11 O/U vs non-division Conference foes.
DENVER BRONCOS - OFFENSE: 380.6 ypg (141.6 rush / 239.0 pass / 24.5 PPG). DEFENSE: 301.6 ypg (93.1 rush / 208.6 pass / 21.5 PPG). Offensive additions: Jake Plummer (QB), Quentin Griffith (rookie RB / Oklahoma). Offensive subtractions: Brian Griese (QB… addition by subtraction?), Olandis Gary (RB). How does a team finish 2nd in the AFC in total Defense (allowing less than 100 ypg on the ground)…. Finish 2nd in the AFC in total Offense (including 141 ypg on the ground)…. Yet miss the Playoffs? That is the question in Denver. And the answer is: No “Knock Out” punch. 5 of their 7 losses last year were by 6 points or less. Totals wise, we look for the Broncos to once again to put up their fair share of points on offense…. while also struggling to stop opposing offenses. Jake Plummer has more talent around him than he ever had in Arizona. But to win a title, the stars have to be aligned. KEY OVER trends: 10-2 O/U on Monday nights… 14-7 O/U home with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts… and 16-9 O/U off a SU win. KEY UNDER trends: 1-4 O/U away off BB SU losses… and 1-3 O/U home after scoring 10< pts.
DETROIT - OFFENSE: 279.4 ypg (92.3 rush / 187.1 pass / 19.1 PPG). DEFENSE: 382.3 ypg (122.9 rush / 259.4 pass / 28.2 PPG). Offensive additions: Charles Rogers (rookie WR / Mich St), Shawn Bryson (RB), Shawn Jefferson (WR). Offensive subtractions: Germaine Crowell (WR), Jacquez Green (WR), Desmond Howard (KR). With a new coach in place (Steve Mariucci) look for big-time improvement from the Lions. After all, it can’t get much worse! Detroit went 11-5 O/U last season and we can look for more of those same OVER numbers this year. Joey Harrington showed a lot of potential last year and the Lions figure to “air it out” in 2003 with potential rookie-of-the-year Charlie Rogers…. and bounce-back seasons from Az-Zahir Hakim and Bill Schroeder. Steve Mariucci has goals…. Outsiders may view them as lofty or unrealistic, but Lions’ players have absorbed the team-oriented aspirations as divine prophecy…. KEY OVER trends: 7-1 O/U away with a line of 36< pts… 10-5 O/U vs .400 < opponents… and 6-1 O/U home after scoring 24> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 4-9 O/U as a road DOG of 3.5 – 9.5 pts… and 1-5 O/U away with a line of 45> pts.
GREEN BAY PACKERS - OFFENSE: 347.5 ypg (120.8 rush / 226.7 pass / 24.9 PPG). DEFENSE: 311.6 ypg (124.9 rush / 186.7 pass / 20.5 PPG). Offensive additions: Lamar Smith (RB). Offensive subtractions: Terry Glenn (WR). Think the Packers were focusing on Defense in the off-season? You betcha….. Their first four picks in the Draft were on the “D” side. Not surprising, as they look to improve a rush defense that allowed almost 125 yards on the ground last year. On the offensive side of things, it’s imperative that the Packer tight ends take some of the pressure off their young receiving corps….. and the signing of Lamar Smith provides an able back-up to starting RB Ahman Green. The Packers keep trying to remedy their big hole at kick returner, as well. Signed with Antonio Chatma (broke the Arena Football League record for all-purpose yards). KEY OVER trends: 7-3 O/U with a line of 45> pts… 10-3 O/U as road FAVS… and 5-1 O/U away vs non-conference opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 3-7 O/U as a home FAV of 6.5< pts…. 1-4 O/U as a road DOG of 3< pts… and 2-6 O/U home vs .600> opponents.
HOUSTON TEXANS - OFFENSE: 223.3 ypg (84,2 rush / 139.1 pass / 13.3 PPG). DEFENSE: 326.9 ypg (130.6 rush / 196.3 pass / 22.3 PPG). Offensive additions: Stacey Mack (RB), Andre Johnson (rookie WR / Miami Fla), Bennie Joppru (rookie TE / Michigan). Offensive subtractions: Jermaine Lewis (WR / KR). The Texans focused primarily on Defense last year, very smart for a 1st-year expansion team. The result was the AFC’s 8th best squad… with a highlight of less than 200 passing yards allowed per game. In 2003 the Rush Defense MUST improve, and given all their Defensive free-agent signings… look for an improved effort “up front”. A priority for this year on the Offensive side is too improve ALL numbers… including punching the ball into the end zone (only 13.3 PPG LY). David Carr’s off-season regiment: Body fat reduced by almost half, from 19 to 10 percent… dropped 10 pounds of fat and replaced that with 15 pounds of muscle… a 40 to 45% increase in weight lifting maximums. KEY OVER trends: 4-2 O/U vs non-division Conference opponents… and 5-2 O/U off BB SU losses. Key UNDER trends: 1-5 O/U vs .600< opponents… 2-4 O/U after scoring 10< pts… and 1-3 vs non-conference opponents.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - OFFENSE: 351.0 ypg (97.6 rush / 253.4 pass / 21.8 PPG). DEFENSE: 306.8 ypg (124.5 rush / 182.3 pass / 19.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Dallas Clark (rookie TE / Iowa). Offensive subtractions: Quadry Ismail (WR). In Tony Dungy’s first year, there was big-time Colt improvement in (what else?) the area of Defense. Their 182.3 passing yards allowed per game was ranked #1 in the AFC. If they can achieve that same improvement in Rush defense this year, the Playoffs will be waiting. On the “O” side, look for improvement on the ground this season with a healthy backfield tandem of Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes. The personnel and coaching staff are now in place for the Colts to be one of the AFC’s “ELITE” teams. Look for a breakout season from WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis' top draft pick in 2001, as well. KEY OVER trends: 15-4 O/U as road DOGS… 8-2 O/U vs non-conference opponents… and 14-3 O/U away off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 1-3 O/U away after scoring 35> pts… 1-3 O/U home off BB SU wins… and 3-7 O/U vs non-division Conference opponents.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - OFFENSE: 303.2 ypg (130.6 rush / 172.6 pass / 20.5 PPG). DEFENSE: 333.4 ypg (129.4 rush / 204.0 pass / 19.7 PPG). Offensive additions: Byron Leftwich (rookie QB / Marshall), Jermaine Lewis (WR / KR), Donald Hayes (WR). Offensive subtractions: Stacey Mack (RB), Patrick Johnson (WR), Bobby Shaw (WR). No problem with the Jag running game (over 130 rush ypg LY)… and the upgrade at the wide out position should help to improve the passing yards per game stats, which were awful last year.. The question is: How long before we see Byron Leftwich? Jack Del Rio did a marvelous job in revamping an absolutely awful defense….. and the signing of the best available defensive free agent (Hugh Douglas) should help to accelerate that improvement. It’s no surprise that that the Jags went UNDER in their last 4 games of last season. KEY OVER trends: 6-2 O/U as home DOGS… 13-6 O/U vs non-conference opponents… and 4-1 O/U after scoring10< pts. KEY UNDER trends: 0-6 O/U as home FAVS of 3< pts… and 2-6 O/U after scoring 35> pts.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - OFFENSE: 375.0 ypg (148.6 rush / 226.4 pass / 29.2 PPG). DEFENSE: 390.5 ypg (129.2 rush / 261.3 pass / 24.9 PPG). Offensive additions: Larry Johnson (rookie RB / Penn St). Offensive subtractions: none. For the most part, the Chiefs seem set on Offense. They led the NFL in scoring last year… and beefed up at RB with the drafting of Larry Johnson. The Defense is the area that needs improvement as only 4 other NFL teams allowed more than the Chiefs did last season (24.9ppg). They utilized half of their 8 draft picks on defense this year… and signed 3 of the most sought-after free agents at their positions on the “D” side (Shawn Barber, Vonnie Holiday, Dexter McCleon). Even with the additions, it remains to be seen how the secondary handles division competition that now includes Jake Plummer, David Boston and an already explosive Oakland offense. KEY OVER trends: 10-3 O/U away with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts… 6-2 O/U off BB SU wins… and 5-2 O/U after scoring 35> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 6-12 O/U home vs .600> opponents… and 2-5 O/U with a line of 36.5 – 39.5 pts.
MIAMI DOLPHINS - OFFENSE: 337.0 ypg (156.4 rush / 180.6 pass / 23.6 PPG). DEFENSE: 291.0 ypg (97.1 rush / 193.9 pass / 18.8 PPG). Offensive additions: Brian Griese (QB), Derrius Thompson (WR), Marco Battaglia (TE). Offensive subtractions: Dedric Ward (WR), Desmond Clark (TE), Jed Weaver (TE), Ray Lucas (QB). The signing of Griese gives Miami a solid, accurate 1-2 punch at QB…. which every team seems to need these days in the NFL. The running game was rejuvenated by the acquisition Ricky Williams… as the Dolphins led the AFC in rushing last year (156.4 ypg). On the flip side, a Championship Defense is now in place as Miami was the League’s third-best “STOP” unit last season (and they added Junior Seau, as well). With a great “D”….. a great running game… and above-average special teams, ALL the parts are in place for a big year for the Fish. KEY OVER trends: 8-2 O/U on Monday nights…. and 6-3 O/U away off BB SU wins. KEY UNDER trends: 0-8 O/U home vs .600> opponents…. 3-9 O/U vs non-conference opponents…. and 5-13 O/U after scoring 24> pts.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS - OFFENSE: 387.0 ypg (156.7 rush / 230.3 pass / 24.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 360.6 ypg (104.1 rush / 256.4 pass / 27.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Gus Frerotte (QB), Nate Burleson (rookie WR / Nev-Reno). Offensive subtractions: none. No worries on Offense for the Vikings. 150+ rushing yards per game has opposing defenses thinking “Stop RUN” before concentrating on Daunte Culpepper. Minnesota used their first two draft picks on Defense and the free agent signing of LB Chris Claiborne (from Division rival Lions) was a real coup. First-year defensive coordinator George O’Leary has his work cut out for him, but the draft picks and Defense FA signings will definitely help…. especially in the “nickel and dime” Defensive schemes….. On offense, the goal is to diversify the offense by asking FB Jimmy Kleinsasser to diversify his game less. Second-year running back Michael Bennett had the second-biggest single-season rushing year in team history. KEY OVER trends: 4-0 O/U as home FAVS of 3.5 – 6.5 pts… 4-1 O/U as road FAVS of 3< pts… 14-7 O/U vs Division foes… and 15-8 O/U away after scoring 24> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 3-6 O/U home vs .600> opponents… and 3-9 O/U vs non-conference opponents.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – OFFENSE: 317.8 ypg (94.3 rush / 223.6 pass / 23.8 PPG). DEFENSE: 336.1 ypg (137.4 rush / 198.7 pass / 21.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Dedric Ward (WR), Bethel Johnson (rookie WR / Texas A&M), Kliff Kingsbury (rookie QB / Texas Tech). Offensive subtractions: Donald Hayes (WR), Cam Cleland (TE). There are two things that the Patriots need to do to return to the playoffs: Improve the running game on Offense….. and STOP the run on Defense. The pressure is on RB Antowain Smith to upgrade his conditioning and enhance his durability. Bill Bellichick changed his Defensive scheme to a 3-4 and used 4 of his top 5 draft picks on this side of the ball. He also signed NINE defensive free agents… including names like Rodney Harrison (S), Tyrone Poole (CB), and Chris Akins (S). The Pats finished last year on a 3-10 “UNDER” run and hopefully a revamped Defense will maintain those O/U numbers. KEY OVER trends: 5-1 O/U on Monday nights…. and 8-4 O/U as a home DOG. KEY UNDER trends: 2-8 O/U as a road DOG of 3< pts… 5-13 O/U off BB SU losses… and 3-7 O/U vs .400< opponents.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - OFFENSE: 325.3 ypg (110.4 rush / 214.9 pass / 27.0 PPG). DEFENSE: 362.3 ypg (124.4 rush / 237.8 pass / 24.4 PPG). Offensive additions: Kareem Kelly (rookie WR / USC), Talman Gardner (rookie WR / Flor St). Offensive subtractions: Jake Delhomme (QB), Lamont Hall (TE). The Saint problems last season weren’t on Offense as they put up 27 PPG (12-4 O/U)….. but rather on defense. They addressed many of these needs thru the Draft and F/A signings, and have done everything they can this off-season to add speed to what was a sluggish defense. Faster doesn’t always mean better, but head coach Jim Haslett didn’t have a problem with making changes because not only did he believe he had to get faster to compete with his division rivals (like Tampa and Carolina), but also because last year’s squad — more effective or not — just was not very good. KEY OVER trends: 11-2 O/U vs .600> opponents… 9-3 O/U as road DOGS… and 14-6 O/U off a SU loss. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U home vs .400< opponents… and 2-5 O/U home after scoring 17< pts.
NEW YORK GIANTS - OFFENSE: 364.1 ypg (117.2 rush / 246.9 pass / 20.0 PPG). DEFENSE: 309.3 ypg (114.4 rush / 194.9 pass / 17.4 PPG). Offensive additions: Brian Mitchell (RB / KR), Mike Hollis (K), Doresy Levens (RB), Vishante Shiancoe (rookie TE / Morgan St). Offensive subtractions: Dan Campbell (TE). Compared to previous seasons, it was very surprising to find that the Giants were the NFCs 2nd BEST team on offense last year (364 yards per game). Big time improvement from Kerry Collins was one of the reasons why as he passed for over 4000 yards… and had a 61.5 completion percentage. But the MAIN reason was head coach Jim Fassell. When he took over the play-calling duties from Sean Payton after Week 8, the Giants went from 12 points per game to 27 (and finished on a 6-2 “OVER” run)! The Giants have put last year's playoff collapse behind them by addressing the real culprit -- special teams. And as a result, they believe they are on the cusp of a championship run. KEY OVER trends: 5-2 O/U as home DOGS of 3< pts…. and 9-5 O/U off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 4-10 O/U with a line of 36.5 – 30.5 pts… 6-15 O/U vs .400< opponents… and 1-9 O/U away off BB SU wins.
NEW YORK JETS - OFFENSE: 314.8 ypg (101.1 rush / 213.6 pass / 22.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 341.4 ypg (123.3 rush / 218.1 pass / 21.0 PPG). Offensive additions: Curtis Conway (WR), Doug Brien (K), Albert Johnson (WR), BJ Askew (rookie RB / Michigan). Offensive subtractions: Richie Anderson (FB), John Hall (K), Laveranues Coles (WR), Chad Morton (KR). In terms of TOTALS, the Jets were split right down the middle last season (8-8 O/U… 4-4 O/U home… 4-4 O/U away). The signing of Curtis Conway will more than pick up the slack from the departing Laveranues Coles. With another year of maturity under his belt, look for QB Chad Pennington to pick up where he left off….. as he had a fantastic 68.9 completion percentage in 2002. Can he possibly improve on a solid 22-6 TD / INT ratio? If Pennington can…. the Playoffs are once again a possibility for the Jets. KEY OVER trends: 4-1 O/U away with a line of 36< pts… 4-2 O/U as road DOGS of 7> pts… and 4-2 O/U as a home DOG. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U off BB SU losses… 4-10 O/U after scoring 24> pts… and 0-6 O/U home vs .400< opponents.
OAKLAND RAIDERS – OFFENSE: 389.8 ypg (110.1 rush / 279.7 pass / 28.1 PPG). DEFENSE: 311.2 ypg (90.8 rush / 220.4 pass / 19.0 PPG). Offensive additions: Cecil Martin (FB), Ronney Jenkins (KR), Teyo Johnson (rookie WR / Stanford), Justin Fargas (rookie RB / USC). Offensive subtractions: Terry Kirby (RB), James Jett (WR), Jon Ritchie (FB). The Raiders led the entire NFL in offense last season, with almost 390 total yards per game. The question is, can this aging offense duplicate last year’s great statistical numbers? Kudos to Oakland for spending two of their top five Draft picks on potential impact players. Considering last season’s tremendous offensive production, it’s quite a surprise that the Raiders finished the year on a 1-9 “UNDER” run. But a look “inside” those numbers reveals that 7 of those 9 “Unders” were by 4 points or less…. KEY OVER trends: 11-3 O/U as home FAVS of 7> pts… 16-7 O/U with a line of 40 44.5 pts… and 9-4 O/U vs .400< opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 2-7 O/U away vs .600> opponents… and 1-4 O/U home after scoring 10< pts.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - OFFENSE: 350.3 ypg (138.8 rush / 211.5 pass / 25.9 PPG). DEFENSE: 297.1 ypg (103.8 rush / 193.4 pass / 15.1 PPG). Offensive additions: Jon Ritchie (FB), LJ Smith (rookie TE / Rutgers), Billy McMullen Jr (rookie WR / Virginia). Offensive subtractions: Brian Mitchell (RB / KR), Doresy Levens (RB). With 12 veterans lost to free agency over the last two years, the pressure was on HC Andy Reid to find a few more gems during mini-camp and pre-season . A tough task, considering the late summer crop of free agents was considered one of the weakest in years because of better cap management around the league. On the offensive side Eagle scoring was up +4 ppg last year and that improvement will need to continue in 2003 because there’s no way they can allow only 15 PPG on Defense like they did last year…. Not with all of the impact players that were lost on “D”. KEY OVER trends: 8-3 O/U as home FAVS of 7> pts…. and 3-0 O/U away after scoring 35> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 1-5 O/U away vs non-division Conference opponents… 4-9 O/U off a SU loss… and 13-26 O/U after scoring 17< pts.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS - OFFENSE: 372.0 ypg (132.5 rush / 239.5 pass / 24.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 302.2 ypg (85.9 rush / 216.3 pass / 21.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Chris Doering (WR), Brian St. Pierre (rookie QB / Bost Coll). Offensive subtractions: Kordell Stewart (QB… addition by subtraction?), Todd Peterson (K), Marco Battaglia (TE). There was Big-time Steeler improvement on the Offensive side last year, as they averaged 27 PPG from game 4 on out. No surprise that the OVER went 9-4 during this time span, either. They will need to maintain these scoring increases this season as well….. with expected problems in the Defensive secondary, there could be quite a few “Steeler SHOOTOUTS” this year. At least Bill Cowher addressed these shortcomings in the off-season. It will take time, but he draft selections of Troy Polamalu (SS) and Ivan Tayor (CB) should pay dividends down the road….. KEY OVER trends: 7-2 O/U home off a SU loss… and 10-4 O/U as road FAVS or DOGS of 3< pts. KEY UNDER trends: 5-9 O/U away vs .600> opponents… 1-5 O/U home after scoring 24> pts… and 2-6 O/U home vs non-division Conference opponents.
ST LOUIS RAMS - OFFENSE: 347.4 ypg (87.8 rush / 259.6 pass / 19.8 PPG). DEFENSE: 314.1 ypg (113.5 rush / 200.6 pass / 23.1 PPG). Offensive additions: Cam Cleland (TE), Kevin Curtis (rookie WR / Utah St), Shaun McDonald (rookie WR / Ariz St). Offensive subtractions: Jamie Martin (QB), Ricky Proehl (WR), Trung Canidate (RB). Injuries to the Rams superstars Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk were two big reasons why St. Louis missed the playoffs for the first time since 1998. But coach Mike Martz is optimistic that Warner will return to his MVP form. Faulk will need to as well, as the Rams rushed for less than 90 YPG last season. Acquiring right tackle Kyle Turley from the Saints for a 2004 second-round choice gives the Rams one of the NFL's most talented offensive lines. The Rams signed free-agent center Dave Wohlabaugh, who will play alongside Adam Timmerman and Andy McCollum. KEY OVER trends: 10-4 O/U away vs .600> opponents… 5-0 O/U after scoring 10< pts… and 8-3 O/U home vs division. KEY UNDER trends: 0-5 O/U as road DOG of 3< pts… and 4-10 O/U vs non-division Conference foes.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - OFFENSE: 332.8 ypg (133.6 rush / 199.3 pass / 20.8 PPG), DEFENSE: 377.1 ypg (108.7 rush / 268.4 pass / 22.9 PPG). Offensive additions: Lorenzo Neal (FB), David Boston (WR). Offensive subtractions: Curtis Conway (WR), Terrell Fletcher (RB). The Chargers allowed a very alarming 268 passing yards per game on “D” last year…. So it’s no surprise that Marty Schottenheimer devoted his Draft to Defensive players (CB Sammy Davis, CB Drayton Florence, S Terrance Kiel with the first three picks). The signing of free agent Ram safety Kwamie Lassiter will also help in the overhaul of the secondary. On the flip side, the addition of wide receiver David Boston suggests that Schottenheimer might open up the offense some and give third-year quarterback Drew Brees more chances to display his talents. And Lorenzo Neal’s presence should continue to help elevate LaDainian Tomlinson, who was second in the NFL with 1,683 rushing yards in 2002. KEY OVER trends: 6-1 O/U as home FAVS of 6.5< pts… 5-1 O/U away vs non-conference opponents… and 11-5 O/U vs .400< opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 2-9 O/U home off BB SU losses… and 3-10 O/U as home DOGS.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - OFFENSE: 356.3 ypg (140.3 rush / 216.1 pass / 22.9 PPG), DEFENSE: 322.4 ypg (103.3 rush / 219.1 pass / 21.9 PPG). Offensive additions: Jed Weaver (TE), Brandon LLoyd (rookie WR / Illinois), Aaron Walker (rookie TE / Florida). Offensive subtractions: JJ Stokes (WR). New HC Dennis Erickson has his work cut out for him in San Francisco. The Niners finished the 2002 season on a 0-8 spread run… and the Defense allowed more than 25 PPG in that stretch as well. The lines were “beefed-up” through the Draft, as line man were chosen in each of the first 3 rounds. About the only starting position on offense up for grabs is at running back, where third-year player Kevan Barlow has a good chance to unseat veteran Garrison Hearst. Erickson said he does not have a plan how to distribute the carries between those two backs. That will be a decision to be made during the course of the exhibition season. KEY OVER trends: 14-6 O/U as a road DOG… and 6-1 O/U away vs non-division Conference opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 4-8 O/U home with line of 44.5 > pts… and 0-6 O/U as home FAVS of 3.5 – 6.5 pts.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - OFFENSE: 363.6 ypg (108.8 rush / 254.9 pass / 22.2 PPG). DEFENSE: 365.8 ypg (152.6 rush / 213.2 pass / 23.1 PPG). Offensive additions: Seneca Wallace (rookie QB / Iowa St), Josh Brown (rookie K / Nebraska). Offensive subtractions: Rian Lindell (K). The Seahawks would love to pick up in 2003 where they left off last season…. as they won their last 3 games in a row, and finished on a 5-1 ATS spread run. All the pieces are in place on Offense. A stud running back (1175 rush yrds for Shawn Alexander LY)…. A smart, veteran starting quarterback (Trent Dilfer)….. a very good second-stringer (Matt Hasslebeck)….. and a deep receiving corps (Koren Robinson, Bobby Engram, and Darrell Jackson). Improvement for 2003 must come on the Defensive side, as the Seahawks must improve their yards allowed (365 ypg)…. especially in the Rushing area (153 rush yards allowed per game LY). New defensive co-ordinator Ray Rhodes was a brilliant hire, and many veterans took no time in warming up to him during off-season mini camps. KEY OVER trends: 11-2 O/U as home DOGS of 6.5< pts…. 4-1 O/U off BB SU wins… and 12-2 O/U vs .600> opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U as home FAVS of 6.5< pts…. and 3-6 O/U as road DOGS of 3< pts.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - OFFENSE: 312.6 ypg (97.3 rush / 215.3 pass / 21.6 PPG). DEFENSE: 252.8 ypg (97.1 rush / 155.6 pass / 12.3 PPG). Offensive additions: Chris Simms (rookie QB / Texas), Terry Kirby (RB), Jacquez Green (WR), Jim Miller (QB). Offensive subtractions: Rob Johnson (QB). Jon Gruden did the unconventional last season. Despite having the league's 27th best running attack, The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. Gruden disguised his backfield inadequacies in a smart, accurate passing attack and generated just enough offense to be a winner. The good news for the Bucs is that times have changed and running attacks don't have to be great. They just need to be good. The bad news is that the Bucs were barely acceptable last year on the ground and did not improve themselves in the Draft. On the other side, the Defense is set. Allowing only 12.3 PPG and less than 160 passing yards per game were phenomenal numbers last season…. and there’s no reason why they can’t be just as good in 2003. KEY OVER trends: 6-2 O/U home after scoring 17< pts… and 7-1 O/U off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 3-7 O/U home vs non-conference opponents… 5-13 O/U off BB SU wins… and 10-20 O/U vs .400< opponents.
TENNESSEE TITANS - OFFENSE: 329.7 ypg (122.0 rush / 207.5 pass / 22.9 PPG), DEFENSE: 310.3 ypg (89.0 rush / 221.3 pass / 20.3 PPG). Offensive additions: Chris Brown (rookie RB / Colorado), Tyrone Calico (rookie WR / Mid Tenn St). Offensive subtractions: Kevin Dyson (WR), Neil O’Donnell (QB), Mike Green (FB). CB Samari Rolle and QB Steve McNair both gave rookie WR Tyrone Calico rave reviews after the team’s summer mini-camps. Rolle said he is just the kind of receiver they need — the new style of NFL receiver — big and fast. With the loss of Kevin Dyson and the Titan passing yardage going down last year, Calico will need to make an immediate impact. For Tennessee to contend for a 2003 Playoff spot, improvement will be needed in the Defensive secondary area, too. Hopefully, first-round pick Andre Woolfolk (CB) and fifth-round pick Donnie Nickey (FS) will pay instant dividends. KEY OVER trends: 12-2 O/U as home FAVS of 6.5< pts… 9-3 O/U vs non-conference opponents… and 10-5 O/U after scoring 17< pts. KEY UNDER trends: 3-8 O/U as road FAVS or DOGS of 3< pts…. and 4-10 O/U away vs division opponents.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS - OFFENSE: 321.4 ypg (118.1 rush / 203.4 pass / 19.2 PPG). DEFENSE: 299.2 ypg (109.6 rush / 189.6 pass / 22.8 PPG). Offensive additions: Trung Canidate (RB), John Hall (K), Chad Morton (KR), Laveranues Coles (WR), Patrick Johnson (WR), Taylor Jacobs (rookie WR / Florida), Rob Johnson (QB). Offensive subtractions: Stephen Davis (RB), Derrius Thompson (WR), Shane Matthews (QB). The ‘Skins raided the Jet cupboards during the off-season, and came away with some STUD players (Coles, Morton, Hall) that will help immediately on Offense. Also expect improvement from their off yardage ranking of #20 with the maturation of QB Patrick Ramsey and the acquisition of RB Trung Canidate. With an impatient owner, the pressure is on Steve Spurrier in 2003. Washington spent some major bucks in the off-season, and with a payroll that likely could exceed $86 million, the Redskins are on pace to be one of the top five clubs in terms of salary this year. And the team still has to be concerned with the futures of CB Champ Bailey and OLB LaVar Arrington — due raises and extensions after this season. KEY OVER trends: 5-1 O/U as home FAVS of 3< pts… and 7-1 O/U after scoring 35> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 1-5 O/U playing with REST…. 3-9 O/U with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts… and 1-8 O/U away vs .600> opponents.
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The “forgotten” world of NFL Handicapping: TOTALS PLAYS….. With updated information and a NEW Over / Under publication, the previously unaccessable data in this area is now available to ALL sharp players!
From Victor King / KING CREOLE Sports
As we prepare to PROFIT in the 2003 NFL season, there’s a area of Pro Football handicapping that’s been neglected for far TOO long: TOTALS PLAYS….. Sure, there’s tons of data, results, trends and history in the field of NFL Side Plays….. but there’s been no help available for the player who likes to wager on the OVER / UNDERS. But NOT any more! The PLAYBOOK “ULTIMATE” OVER / UNDER Report is a publication that the team at KING CREOLE Sports created last season and it’s debut was SMASHING success. Containing over 4400 Situational and Technical O/U trends….. It’s now been updated for 2003 and this publication is ready to be delivered to all interested parties. Total cost for this “must have” subsciption is $69.95. For that price, you get the following: A copy of the 2003 ANNUAL with updated O/U statistics through last year’s results. A full-season weekly subsricption for 2003 updated each Monday and mailed out on Tuesday mornings. Two FREE weekly OVER / UNDER winners in each issue. Available via the mail or DOWNLOADABLE each week off the Playbook website.
If you like playing ther TOTALS in NFL action, then this publication is for you! Call the PLAYBOOK offices at 1-800-321-7777 to order your full-season subsciption today. To “whet your whistle”, we proudly submit our NFL Totals Plays PREVIEW for the upcoming season. The trends revealed below are just a “taste” of what you can get when you are a full-season subscriber to the “ULTIMATE” Over / Under Report. Good luck this season, and don’t forget that KING CREOLE Handicapper selections are offered on a daily basis on the PLAYBOOK website (www.playbook.com)!
All NFL teams are covered. First off there are statistics on Offense from last year (yards per game and points per game)…. And then Defense. We then tackle key additions and subtractions for each team’s offense for this season. Finally, we reveal 4-5 pertinent “OVER” and “UNDER” numbers for each team in the League.
ARIZONA CARDINALS - OFFENSE: 285.2 ypg (113.9 rush / 171.3 pass / 16.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 376.3 ypg (134.1 rush / 242.1 pass / 26.1 ppg). Offensive additions: Jeff Blake (QB), Emmitt Smith (RB), Bryant Johnson (rookie WR / Penn St), and Anquan Boldin (rookie WR / Florida St). Offensive subtractions: Jake Plummer (QB), David Boston (WR). The Cardinals will look to jump-start their offense this season with Jeff (the “Bomber”) Blake and the two rookie additions at wide out. The result should be some slightly higher point totals on offense…. And a few more “picks” (for touchdowns!) on defense. Either way, the trends that have been favoring the UNDER in recent Cardinal seasons should begin to gradually “skew” to the OVER side. 5 out of their last 6 games went “OVER” last season. Playing in a division where they are clearly the No. 4 team, five wins is probably as optimistic as any Cardinals fan can be. KEY OVER trends: 5-1 O/U as a road dog of 10> pts…. and 4-1 O/U away off BB SU wins. KEY UNDER trends: 7-14 O/U with a line of 36.5 – 39.5…. 1-5 O/U home vs .400 < opponents…. and 0-4 O/U playing off the BYE week.
ATLANTA FALCONS - OFFENSE: 345.9 ypg (147.9 rush / 197.9 pass / 25.1 PPG). DEFENSE: 333.4 ypg (127.9 rush / 205.4 pass / 19.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Peerless Price (WR), Martay Jenkins (WR), Jon Olinger (rookie WR / Cincinnati). Offensive subtractions: Shawn Jefferson (WR), Reggie Kelly (TE). The Falcon playoff season of 2002 was actually two seasons in one, “Totally”-speaking. 2-6 O/U in the first half…. And 6-2 O/U in the second. The offense came on like gangbusters late in the year, while the defense totally collapsed. With the addition of Peerless Price and Martay Jenkins, we see Atlanta airing it out a little more in 2003 and the maturation of Michael Vick (only 197 passing yards per game last year) should accelerate that process. If the Falcons want to take the next step to title contender, they'll need T.J. Duckett to be more productive. KEY OVER trends: 8-3 O/U away off a SU win…. and 6-3 O/U away vs after scoring 24> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U home vs .600> opponents…. 8-14 O/U vs Division foes… and 0-6 O/U as a home FAV of 3< pts.
BALTIMORE RAVENS - OFFENSE: 289.9 ypg (112.0 rush / 177.9 pass / 19.8 PPG). DEFENSE: 334.6 ypg (110.1 rush / 224.4 pass / 22.1 PPG). Offensive additions: Frank Sanders (WR), Marcus Robinson (WR), Kyle Boller (rookie QB / California), Musa Smith (rookie RB / Georgia). Offensive subtractions: Jeff Blake (QB), Sam Gash (FB). Baltimore should once again field one of the best defenses in the NFL, and there should be major improvement in the rushing yards ALLOWED category. Last year was the first in four seasons that they allowed over 100 yards per game on the ground. With a healthy Jamal Lewis… the free-agent wide receiver signings… and the development from Chris Redman and Todd Heap, offensive scoring should improve as well. With their Defense, Baltimore will be in a lot of games and if they can win more of the close ones than they lose, a spot in the playoffs is a possibility. KEY OVER trends: 5-2 O/U as a home FAV of 3.5 – 6.5 pts…. and 4-1 O/U off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 0-6 O/;U away with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts…. 1-6 O/U as a double-digit home FAV…. and 3-15 O/U vs non-conference opponents.
BUFFALO BILLS - OFFENSE: 349.4 ypg (99.8 rush / 249.7 pass / 23.7 PPG). DEFENSE: 324.3 ypg (132.6 rush / 191.7 pass / 24.8 PPG). Offensive additions: Olandis Gary (RB), James Jett (WR), Bobby Shaw (WR), Sam Gash (FB), Willis McGahee (rookie RB / Miami), Rian Lindell (K). Offensive subtractions: Peerless Price (WR), Mike Hollis (K), Shawn Bryson (RB), Larry Centers (RB). It’s not surprising that he Bills drafted Defensive players in 3 of the first 4 rounds of the 2003 Draft. Improving the RUSH defense is a top priority for this season. On the Offensive side, they made up for the loss of Price with the addition of deep threat Jett. Last season, they started off with six straight “OVERS”… but actually finished on a 1-9 “UNDER” run. If the Bills indeed make major strides on defense and continue to score in bunches, they should contend for a playoff spot. KEY OVER trends: 4-1 O/U as a home DOG of 3.5 > pts…. 8-2 O/U away vs non-conference opponents… and 6-2 O/U away off BB SU wins. KEY UNDER trends: 2-7 O/U home with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts…. and 2-5 O/U home off a SU win.
CAROLINA PANTHERS - OFFENSE: 267.5 ypg (99.1 rush / 168.4 pass / 16.1 PPG). DEFENSE: 290.4 ypg (103.3 rush / 187.1 pass / 18.9 PPG). Offensive additions: Jake Delhomme (QB), Ricky Proehl (WR), Kevin Dyson (WR – but OUT for the year), Mike Seidman (rookie TE / UCLA), Stephen Davis (RB). Offensive subtractions: Wesley Walls (TE), Lamar Smith (RB). You can also add the name of Deshaun Foster (RB) to the “addition” category… as the Panthers should have last year’s rookie healthy for the entire season. Carolina is a team with a lot of “upside” potential. They already field one of the best Defenses in the NFC, and they improved on the offensive line in the Draft (Jordan Gross / OT / Utah and Bruce Nelson / C / Iowa). Success this season on the offensive side will ride squarely on the shoulders of Delhomme/Weinke at QB…. Mushin Muhammed at WR… and Foster/Dee Brown at RB. KEY OVER trends: 4-1 O/U as a home DOG of 3.5 - 6.5 pts… and 6-2 O/U away after scoring 10< pts. KEY UNDER trends: 1-8 O/U as a DOG of 6.5< pts…. 0-6 O/U away with a line of 36< pts…. and 3-11 O/U after scoring 24< pts.
CHICAGO BEARS - OFFENSE: 274.7 ypg (84.0 rush / 190.7 pass / 17.6 PPG). DEFENSE: 350.4 ypg (129.8 rush / 220.6 pass / 23.7 PPG). Offensive additions: Kordell Stewart (QB), Rex Grossman (rookie QB / Florida), Desmond Clark (TE). Offensive subtractions: Jim Miller (QB), Marcus Robinson (WR). With the poor showing on the Defensive side of the ball last year, the Bears attempted to beef up their “D” in the Draft with 5 out of their first 6 selections on Defensive players. The signing of Kordell Stewart is an upgrade at the QB position…. and a healthy Anthony Thomas at RB should help reverse some of the “UNDER” action that came in last year (as last 8 out of 11 games went UNDER). Good news: Bears middle linebacker Brian Urlacher won't be going anywhere else for a long time -- not after signing a $56 million contract on June 3 that will keep him in Chicago through 2011. KEY OVER trends: 7-2 O/U home after scoring 24< pts… and 4-2 O/U as a road DOG of 3.5 – 6.5 pts. KEY UNDER trends: 12-21 O/U as an underdog… 7-14 O/U with a line of 36.5 – 39.5 pts… and 4-11 O/U home off a SU loss.
CINCINNATI BENGALS - OFFENSE: 325.4 ypg (108.1 rush / 217.3 pass / 17.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 329.1 ypg (125.4 rush / 203.7 pass / 28.5 PPG). Offensive additions: Carson Palmer (rookie QB / USC), Shane Matthews (QB), Reggie Kelly (TE), Kelley Washington (rookie WR / Tennessee). Offensive subtractions: Lorenzo Neal (FB), Akili Smith (QB… addition by subtraction?). The Bengals made some big strides on the Defensive side of things last season (allowed only 204 ypg passing)….. but improvement MUST come in stopping the BIG PLAYS, as they still allowed almost 29 ppg. If new coach Marvin Lewis accepts the fact that this team WILL improve by taking “baby steps”, then the potential is there for an up-and-coming power in the AFC….. Built around a solid Defense, a strong running game with Corey Dillon, and a future superstar in Carson Palmer. KEY OVER trends: 4-1 O/U as a road DOG of 3< pts… and 7-0 O/U home vs non-division Conference foes. KEY UNDER trends: 0-6 O/U as a road DOG of 7 – 9.5 pts… 5-11 O/U away off a SU loss… and 1-4 O/U home vs .400< opponents.
CLEVELAND BROWNS - OFFENSE: 314.2 ypg (100.9 rush / 213.3 pass / 21.5 PPG). DEFENSE: 334.2 ypg (129.9 rush / 204.3 pass / 20.0 PPG). Offensive additions: Jeff Faine (rookie C / Notre Dame). Offensive subtractions: Mark Campbell (TE). The Browns have all the ingredients in place for a hell of an Offensive banquet… and they better produce points because there are a ton of question marks on the Defensive side of the ball. With one of the League’s best 1-2 punches at QB (Couch / Holcombe)… at RB (Green / White / Jackson)… and WR (Johnson / Morgan / Davis / Northcutt), look for a lot of 27-24 type games this season…… and some rock-solid OVER numbers! In a division where at least two foes could find themselves struggling to reach the .500 mark, the Browns could very well finding themselves fighting for the AFC North crown. KEY OVER trends: 15-7 O/U in ALL road games… 9-1 O/U vs non-division Conference opponents… and 3-0 O/U playing with rest. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U home with a line of 36.5 – 39.5 pts… and 4-9 O/U home vs division foes.
DALLAS COWBOYS - OFFENSE: 273.4 ypg (109.6 rush / 163.8 pass / 13.6 PPG). DEFENSE: 329.2 ypg (113.6 rush / 215.6 pass / 20.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Terry Glenn (WR), Richie Anderson (FB), Dan Campbell (TE), Al Johnson (rookie C / Wisconsin). Offensive subtractions: Emmitt Smith (RB), Raghib Ismail (WR). There’s a new Sheriff in town as the Bill Parcells reign begins in “Big D”. With Emmitt gone to Arizona, it’s all up to Troy Hambrick in the backfield… and the addition of Anderson at the FB position should open things up, as well. Both Quincy Carter and Chad Hutchinson will see plenty of playing time at the QB position this season. The Cowboys have an excellent Defensive foundation and if Parcells’ track record is any indication, Dallas has a three- to four-year window to turn things around. Look for immediate improvement in 2003…. and a possible playoff push in 2004. KEY OVER trends: 8-4 O/U as a home DOG of 6.5< pts… and 4-2 O/U home off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 6-12 O/U away off a SU loss… 0-4 O/U as a home FAV of 3< pts… and 3-11 O/U vs non-division Conference foes.
DENVER BRONCOS - OFFENSE: 380.6 ypg (141.6 rush / 239.0 pass / 24.5 PPG). DEFENSE: 301.6 ypg (93.1 rush / 208.6 pass / 21.5 PPG). Offensive additions: Jake Plummer (QB), Quentin Griffith (rookie RB / Oklahoma). Offensive subtractions: Brian Griese (QB… addition by subtraction?), Olandis Gary (RB). How does a team finish 2nd in the AFC in total Defense (allowing less than 100 ypg on the ground)…. Finish 2nd in the AFC in total Offense (including 141 ypg on the ground)…. Yet miss the Playoffs? That is the question in Denver. And the answer is: No “Knock Out” punch. 5 of their 7 losses last year were by 6 points or less. Totals wise, we look for the Broncos to once again to put up their fair share of points on offense…. while also struggling to stop opposing offenses. Jake Plummer has more talent around him than he ever had in Arizona. But to win a title, the stars have to be aligned. KEY OVER trends: 10-2 O/U on Monday nights… 14-7 O/U home with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts… and 16-9 O/U off a SU win. KEY UNDER trends: 1-4 O/U away off BB SU losses… and 1-3 O/U home after scoring 10< pts.
DETROIT - OFFENSE: 279.4 ypg (92.3 rush / 187.1 pass / 19.1 PPG). DEFENSE: 382.3 ypg (122.9 rush / 259.4 pass / 28.2 PPG). Offensive additions: Charles Rogers (rookie WR / Mich St), Shawn Bryson (RB), Shawn Jefferson (WR). Offensive subtractions: Germaine Crowell (WR), Jacquez Green (WR), Desmond Howard (KR). With a new coach in place (Steve Mariucci) look for big-time improvement from the Lions. After all, it can’t get much worse! Detroit went 11-5 O/U last season and we can look for more of those same OVER numbers this year. Joey Harrington showed a lot of potential last year and the Lions figure to “air it out” in 2003 with potential rookie-of-the-year Charlie Rogers…. and bounce-back seasons from Az-Zahir Hakim and Bill Schroeder. Steve Mariucci has goals…. Outsiders may view them as lofty or unrealistic, but Lions’ players have absorbed the team-oriented aspirations as divine prophecy…. KEY OVER trends: 7-1 O/U away with a line of 36< pts… 10-5 O/U vs .400 < opponents… and 6-1 O/U home after scoring 24> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 4-9 O/U as a road DOG of 3.5 – 9.5 pts… and 1-5 O/U away with a line of 45> pts.
GREEN BAY PACKERS - OFFENSE: 347.5 ypg (120.8 rush / 226.7 pass / 24.9 PPG). DEFENSE: 311.6 ypg (124.9 rush / 186.7 pass / 20.5 PPG). Offensive additions: Lamar Smith (RB). Offensive subtractions: Terry Glenn (WR). Think the Packers were focusing on Defense in the off-season? You betcha….. Their first four picks in the Draft were on the “D” side. Not surprising, as they look to improve a rush defense that allowed almost 125 yards on the ground last year. On the offensive side of things, it’s imperative that the Packer tight ends take some of the pressure off their young receiving corps….. and the signing of Lamar Smith provides an able back-up to starting RB Ahman Green. The Packers keep trying to remedy their big hole at kick returner, as well. Signed with Antonio Chatma (broke the Arena Football League record for all-purpose yards). KEY OVER trends: 7-3 O/U with a line of 45> pts… 10-3 O/U as road FAVS… and 5-1 O/U away vs non-conference opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 3-7 O/U as a home FAV of 6.5< pts…. 1-4 O/U as a road DOG of 3< pts… and 2-6 O/U home vs .600> opponents.
HOUSTON TEXANS - OFFENSE: 223.3 ypg (84,2 rush / 139.1 pass / 13.3 PPG). DEFENSE: 326.9 ypg (130.6 rush / 196.3 pass / 22.3 PPG). Offensive additions: Stacey Mack (RB), Andre Johnson (rookie WR / Miami Fla), Bennie Joppru (rookie TE / Michigan). Offensive subtractions: Jermaine Lewis (WR / KR). The Texans focused primarily on Defense last year, very smart for a 1st-year expansion team. The result was the AFC’s 8th best squad… with a highlight of less than 200 passing yards allowed per game. In 2003 the Rush Defense MUST improve, and given all their Defensive free-agent signings… look for an improved effort “up front”. A priority for this year on the Offensive side is too improve ALL numbers… including punching the ball into the end zone (only 13.3 PPG LY). David Carr’s off-season regiment: Body fat reduced by almost half, from 19 to 10 percent… dropped 10 pounds of fat and replaced that with 15 pounds of muscle… a 40 to 45% increase in weight lifting maximums. KEY OVER trends: 4-2 O/U vs non-division Conference opponents… and 5-2 O/U off BB SU losses. Key UNDER trends: 1-5 O/U vs .600< opponents… 2-4 O/U after scoring 10< pts… and 1-3 vs non-conference opponents.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - OFFENSE: 351.0 ypg (97.6 rush / 253.4 pass / 21.8 PPG). DEFENSE: 306.8 ypg (124.5 rush / 182.3 pass / 19.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Dallas Clark (rookie TE / Iowa). Offensive subtractions: Quadry Ismail (WR). In Tony Dungy’s first year, there was big-time Colt improvement in (what else?) the area of Defense. Their 182.3 passing yards allowed per game was ranked #1 in the AFC. If they can achieve that same improvement in Rush defense this year, the Playoffs will be waiting. On the “O” side, look for improvement on the ground this season with a healthy backfield tandem of Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes. The personnel and coaching staff are now in place for the Colts to be one of the AFC’s “ELITE” teams. Look for a breakout season from WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis' top draft pick in 2001, as well. KEY OVER trends: 15-4 O/U as road DOGS… 8-2 O/U vs non-conference opponents… and 14-3 O/U away off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 1-3 O/U away after scoring 35> pts… 1-3 O/U home off BB SU wins… and 3-7 O/U vs non-division Conference opponents.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - OFFENSE: 303.2 ypg (130.6 rush / 172.6 pass / 20.5 PPG). DEFENSE: 333.4 ypg (129.4 rush / 204.0 pass / 19.7 PPG). Offensive additions: Byron Leftwich (rookie QB / Marshall), Jermaine Lewis (WR / KR), Donald Hayes (WR). Offensive subtractions: Stacey Mack (RB), Patrick Johnson (WR), Bobby Shaw (WR). No problem with the Jag running game (over 130 rush ypg LY)… and the upgrade at the wide out position should help to improve the passing yards per game stats, which were awful last year.. The question is: How long before we see Byron Leftwich? Jack Del Rio did a marvelous job in revamping an absolutely awful defense….. and the signing of the best available defensive free agent (Hugh Douglas) should help to accelerate that improvement. It’s no surprise that that the Jags went UNDER in their last 4 games of last season. KEY OVER trends: 6-2 O/U as home DOGS… 13-6 O/U vs non-conference opponents… and 4-1 O/U after scoring10< pts. KEY UNDER trends: 0-6 O/U as home FAVS of 3< pts… and 2-6 O/U after scoring 35> pts.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - OFFENSE: 375.0 ypg (148.6 rush / 226.4 pass / 29.2 PPG). DEFENSE: 390.5 ypg (129.2 rush / 261.3 pass / 24.9 PPG). Offensive additions: Larry Johnson (rookie RB / Penn St). Offensive subtractions: none. For the most part, the Chiefs seem set on Offense. They led the NFL in scoring last year… and beefed up at RB with the drafting of Larry Johnson. The Defense is the area that needs improvement as only 4 other NFL teams allowed more than the Chiefs did last season (24.9ppg). They utilized half of their 8 draft picks on defense this year… and signed 3 of the most sought-after free agents at their positions on the “D” side (Shawn Barber, Vonnie Holiday, Dexter McCleon). Even with the additions, it remains to be seen how the secondary handles division competition that now includes Jake Plummer, David Boston and an already explosive Oakland offense. KEY OVER trends: 10-3 O/U away with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts… 6-2 O/U off BB SU wins… and 5-2 O/U after scoring 35> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 6-12 O/U home vs .600> opponents… and 2-5 O/U with a line of 36.5 – 39.5 pts.
MIAMI DOLPHINS - OFFENSE: 337.0 ypg (156.4 rush / 180.6 pass / 23.6 PPG). DEFENSE: 291.0 ypg (97.1 rush / 193.9 pass / 18.8 PPG). Offensive additions: Brian Griese (QB), Derrius Thompson (WR), Marco Battaglia (TE). Offensive subtractions: Dedric Ward (WR), Desmond Clark (TE), Jed Weaver (TE), Ray Lucas (QB). The signing of Griese gives Miami a solid, accurate 1-2 punch at QB…. which every team seems to need these days in the NFL. The running game was rejuvenated by the acquisition Ricky Williams… as the Dolphins led the AFC in rushing last year (156.4 ypg). On the flip side, a Championship Defense is now in place as Miami was the League’s third-best “STOP” unit last season (and they added Junior Seau, as well). With a great “D”….. a great running game… and above-average special teams, ALL the parts are in place for a big year for the Fish. KEY OVER trends: 8-2 O/U on Monday nights…. and 6-3 O/U away off BB SU wins. KEY UNDER trends: 0-8 O/U home vs .600> opponents…. 3-9 O/U vs non-conference opponents…. and 5-13 O/U after scoring 24> pts.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS - OFFENSE: 387.0 ypg (156.7 rush / 230.3 pass / 24.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 360.6 ypg (104.1 rush / 256.4 pass / 27.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Gus Frerotte (QB), Nate Burleson (rookie WR / Nev-Reno). Offensive subtractions: none. No worries on Offense for the Vikings. 150+ rushing yards per game has opposing defenses thinking “Stop RUN” before concentrating on Daunte Culpepper. Minnesota used their first two draft picks on Defense and the free agent signing of LB Chris Claiborne (from Division rival Lions) was a real coup. First-year defensive coordinator George O’Leary has his work cut out for him, but the draft picks and Defense FA signings will definitely help…. especially in the “nickel and dime” Defensive schemes….. On offense, the goal is to diversify the offense by asking FB Jimmy Kleinsasser to diversify his game less. Second-year running back Michael Bennett had the second-biggest single-season rushing year in team history. KEY OVER trends: 4-0 O/U as home FAVS of 3.5 – 6.5 pts… 4-1 O/U as road FAVS of 3< pts… 14-7 O/U vs Division foes… and 15-8 O/U away after scoring 24> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 3-6 O/U home vs .600> opponents… and 3-9 O/U vs non-conference opponents.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – OFFENSE: 317.8 ypg (94.3 rush / 223.6 pass / 23.8 PPG). DEFENSE: 336.1 ypg (137.4 rush / 198.7 pass / 21.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Dedric Ward (WR), Bethel Johnson (rookie WR / Texas A&M), Kliff Kingsbury (rookie QB / Texas Tech). Offensive subtractions: Donald Hayes (WR), Cam Cleland (TE). There are two things that the Patriots need to do to return to the playoffs: Improve the running game on Offense….. and STOP the run on Defense. The pressure is on RB Antowain Smith to upgrade his conditioning and enhance his durability. Bill Bellichick changed his Defensive scheme to a 3-4 and used 4 of his top 5 draft picks on this side of the ball. He also signed NINE defensive free agents… including names like Rodney Harrison (S), Tyrone Poole (CB), and Chris Akins (S). The Pats finished last year on a 3-10 “UNDER” run and hopefully a revamped Defense will maintain those O/U numbers. KEY OVER trends: 5-1 O/U on Monday nights…. and 8-4 O/U as a home DOG. KEY UNDER trends: 2-8 O/U as a road DOG of 3< pts… 5-13 O/U off BB SU losses… and 3-7 O/U vs .400< opponents.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - OFFENSE: 325.3 ypg (110.4 rush / 214.9 pass / 27.0 PPG). DEFENSE: 362.3 ypg (124.4 rush / 237.8 pass / 24.4 PPG). Offensive additions: Kareem Kelly (rookie WR / USC), Talman Gardner (rookie WR / Flor St). Offensive subtractions: Jake Delhomme (QB), Lamont Hall (TE). The Saint problems last season weren’t on Offense as they put up 27 PPG (12-4 O/U)….. but rather on defense. They addressed many of these needs thru the Draft and F/A signings, and have done everything they can this off-season to add speed to what was a sluggish defense. Faster doesn’t always mean better, but head coach Jim Haslett didn’t have a problem with making changes because not only did he believe he had to get faster to compete with his division rivals (like Tampa and Carolina), but also because last year’s squad — more effective or not — just was not very good. KEY OVER trends: 11-2 O/U vs .600> opponents… 9-3 O/U as road DOGS… and 14-6 O/U off a SU loss. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U home vs .400< opponents… and 2-5 O/U home after scoring 17< pts.
NEW YORK GIANTS - OFFENSE: 364.1 ypg (117.2 rush / 246.9 pass / 20.0 PPG). DEFENSE: 309.3 ypg (114.4 rush / 194.9 pass / 17.4 PPG). Offensive additions: Brian Mitchell (RB / KR), Mike Hollis (K), Doresy Levens (RB), Vishante Shiancoe (rookie TE / Morgan St). Offensive subtractions: Dan Campbell (TE). Compared to previous seasons, it was very surprising to find that the Giants were the NFCs 2nd BEST team on offense last year (364 yards per game). Big time improvement from Kerry Collins was one of the reasons why as he passed for over 4000 yards… and had a 61.5 completion percentage. But the MAIN reason was head coach Jim Fassell. When he took over the play-calling duties from Sean Payton after Week 8, the Giants went from 12 points per game to 27 (and finished on a 6-2 “OVER” run)! The Giants have put last year's playoff collapse behind them by addressing the real culprit -- special teams. And as a result, they believe they are on the cusp of a championship run. KEY OVER trends: 5-2 O/U as home DOGS of 3< pts…. and 9-5 O/U off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 4-10 O/U with a line of 36.5 – 30.5 pts… 6-15 O/U vs .400< opponents… and 1-9 O/U away off BB SU wins.
NEW YORK JETS - OFFENSE: 314.8 ypg (101.1 rush / 213.6 pass / 22.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 341.4 ypg (123.3 rush / 218.1 pass / 21.0 PPG). Offensive additions: Curtis Conway (WR), Doug Brien (K), Albert Johnson (WR), BJ Askew (rookie RB / Michigan). Offensive subtractions: Richie Anderson (FB), John Hall (K), Laveranues Coles (WR), Chad Morton (KR). In terms of TOTALS, the Jets were split right down the middle last season (8-8 O/U… 4-4 O/U home… 4-4 O/U away). The signing of Curtis Conway will more than pick up the slack from the departing Laveranues Coles. With another year of maturity under his belt, look for QB Chad Pennington to pick up where he left off….. as he had a fantastic 68.9 completion percentage in 2002. Can he possibly improve on a solid 22-6 TD / INT ratio? If Pennington can…. the Playoffs are once again a possibility for the Jets. KEY OVER trends: 4-1 O/U away with a line of 36< pts… 4-2 O/U as road DOGS of 7> pts… and 4-2 O/U as a home DOG. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U off BB SU losses… 4-10 O/U after scoring 24> pts… and 0-6 O/U home vs .400< opponents.
OAKLAND RAIDERS – OFFENSE: 389.8 ypg (110.1 rush / 279.7 pass / 28.1 PPG). DEFENSE: 311.2 ypg (90.8 rush / 220.4 pass / 19.0 PPG). Offensive additions: Cecil Martin (FB), Ronney Jenkins (KR), Teyo Johnson (rookie WR / Stanford), Justin Fargas (rookie RB / USC). Offensive subtractions: Terry Kirby (RB), James Jett (WR), Jon Ritchie (FB). The Raiders led the entire NFL in offense last season, with almost 390 total yards per game. The question is, can this aging offense duplicate last year’s great statistical numbers? Kudos to Oakland for spending two of their top five Draft picks on potential impact players. Considering last season’s tremendous offensive production, it’s quite a surprise that the Raiders finished the year on a 1-9 “UNDER” run. But a look “inside” those numbers reveals that 7 of those 9 “Unders” were by 4 points or less…. KEY OVER trends: 11-3 O/U as home FAVS of 7> pts… 16-7 O/U with a line of 40 44.5 pts… and 9-4 O/U vs .400< opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 2-7 O/U away vs .600> opponents… and 1-4 O/U home after scoring 10< pts.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - OFFENSE: 350.3 ypg (138.8 rush / 211.5 pass / 25.9 PPG). DEFENSE: 297.1 ypg (103.8 rush / 193.4 pass / 15.1 PPG). Offensive additions: Jon Ritchie (FB), LJ Smith (rookie TE / Rutgers), Billy McMullen Jr (rookie WR / Virginia). Offensive subtractions: Brian Mitchell (RB / KR), Doresy Levens (RB). With 12 veterans lost to free agency over the last two years, the pressure was on HC Andy Reid to find a few more gems during mini-camp and pre-season . A tough task, considering the late summer crop of free agents was considered one of the weakest in years because of better cap management around the league. On the offensive side Eagle scoring was up +4 ppg last year and that improvement will need to continue in 2003 because there’s no way they can allow only 15 PPG on Defense like they did last year…. Not with all of the impact players that were lost on “D”. KEY OVER trends: 8-3 O/U as home FAVS of 7> pts…. and 3-0 O/U away after scoring 35> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 1-5 O/U away vs non-division Conference opponents… 4-9 O/U off a SU loss… and 13-26 O/U after scoring 17< pts.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS - OFFENSE: 372.0 ypg (132.5 rush / 239.5 pass / 24.4 PPG). DEFENSE: 302.2 ypg (85.9 rush / 216.3 pass / 21.6 PPG). Offensive additions: Chris Doering (WR), Brian St. Pierre (rookie QB / Bost Coll). Offensive subtractions: Kordell Stewart (QB… addition by subtraction?), Todd Peterson (K), Marco Battaglia (TE). There was Big-time Steeler improvement on the Offensive side last year, as they averaged 27 PPG from game 4 on out. No surprise that the OVER went 9-4 during this time span, either. They will need to maintain these scoring increases this season as well….. with expected problems in the Defensive secondary, there could be quite a few “Steeler SHOOTOUTS” this year. At least Bill Cowher addressed these shortcomings in the off-season. It will take time, but he draft selections of Troy Polamalu (SS) and Ivan Tayor (CB) should pay dividends down the road….. KEY OVER trends: 7-2 O/U home off a SU loss… and 10-4 O/U as road FAVS or DOGS of 3< pts. KEY UNDER trends: 5-9 O/U away vs .600> opponents… 1-5 O/U home after scoring 24> pts… and 2-6 O/U home vs non-division Conference opponents.
ST LOUIS RAMS - OFFENSE: 347.4 ypg (87.8 rush / 259.6 pass / 19.8 PPG). DEFENSE: 314.1 ypg (113.5 rush / 200.6 pass / 23.1 PPG). Offensive additions: Cam Cleland (TE), Kevin Curtis (rookie WR / Utah St), Shaun McDonald (rookie WR / Ariz St). Offensive subtractions: Jamie Martin (QB), Ricky Proehl (WR), Trung Canidate (RB). Injuries to the Rams superstars Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk were two big reasons why St. Louis missed the playoffs for the first time since 1998. But coach Mike Martz is optimistic that Warner will return to his MVP form. Faulk will need to as well, as the Rams rushed for less than 90 YPG last season. Acquiring right tackle Kyle Turley from the Saints for a 2004 second-round choice gives the Rams one of the NFL's most talented offensive lines. The Rams signed free-agent center Dave Wohlabaugh, who will play alongside Adam Timmerman and Andy McCollum. KEY OVER trends: 10-4 O/U away vs .600> opponents… 5-0 O/U after scoring 10< pts… and 8-3 O/U home vs division. KEY UNDER trends: 0-5 O/U as road DOG of 3< pts… and 4-10 O/U vs non-division Conference foes.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - OFFENSE: 332.8 ypg (133.6 rush / 199.3 pass / 20.8 PPG), DEFENSE: 377.1 ypg (108.7 rush / 268.4 pass / 22.9 PPG). Offensive additions: Lorenzo Neal (FB), David Boston (WR). Offensive subtractions: Curtis Conway (WR), Terrell Fletcher (RB). The Chargers allowed a very alarming 268 passing yards per game on “D” last year…. So it’s no surprise that Marty Schottenheimer devoted his Draft to Defensive players (CB Sammy Davis, CB Drayton Florence, S Terrance Kiel with the first three picks). The signing of free agent Ram safety Kwamie Lassiter will also help in the overhaul of the secondary. On the flip side, the addition of wide receiver David Boston suggests that Schottenheimer might open up the offense some and give third-year quarterback Drew Brees more chances to display his talents. And Lorenzo Neal’s presence should continue to help elevate LaDainian Tomlinson, who was second in the NFL with 1,683 rushing yards in 2002. KEY OVER trends: 6-1 O/U as home FAVS of 6.5< pts… 5-1 O/U away vs non-conference opponents… and 11-5 O/U vs .400< opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 2-9 O/U home off BB SU losses… and 3-10 O/U as home DOGS.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - OFFENSE: 356.3 ypg (140.3 rush / 216.1 pass / 22.9 PPG), DEFENSE: 322.4 ypg (103.3 rush / 219.1 pass / 21.9 PPG). Offensive additions: Jed Weaver (TE), Brandon LLoyd (rookie WR / Illinois), Aaron Walker (rookie TE / Florida). Offensive subtractions: JJ Stokes (WR). New HC Dennis Erickson has his work cut out for him in San Francisco. The Niners finished the 2002 season on a 0-8 spread run… and the Defense allowed more than 25 PPG in that stretch as well. The lines were “beefed-up” through the Draft, as line man were chosen in each of the first 3 rounds. About the only starting position on offense up for grabs is at running back, where third-year player Kevan Barlow has a good chance to unseat veteran Garrison Hearst. Erickson said he does not have a plan how to distribute the carries between those two backs. That will be a decision to be made during the course of the exhibition season. KEY OVER trends: 14-6 O/U as a road DOG… and 6-1 O/U away vs non-division Conference opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 4-8 O/U home with line of 44.5 > pts… and 0-6 O/U as home FAVS of 3.5 – 6.5 pts.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - OFFENSE: 363.6 ypg (108.8 rush / 254.9 pass / 22.2 PPG). DEFENSE: 365.8 ypg (152.6 rush / 213.2 pass / 23.1 PPG). Offensive additions: Seneca Wallace (rookie QB / Iowa St), Josh Brown (rookie K / Nebraska). Offensive subtractions: Rian Lindell (K). The Seahawks would love to pick up in 2003 where they left off last season…. as they won their last 3 games in a row, and finished on a 5-1 ATS spread run. All the pieces are in place on Offense. A stud running back (1175 rush yrds for Shawn Alexander LY)…. A smart, veteran starting quarterback (Trent Dilfer)….. a very good second-stringer (Matt Hasslebeck)….. and a deep receiving corps (Koren Robinson, Bobby Engram, and Darrell Jackson). Improvement for 2003 must come on the Defensive side, as the Seahawks must improve their yards allowed (365 ypg)…. especially in the Rushing area (153 rush yards allowed per game LY). New defensive co-ordinator Ray Rhodes was a brilliant hire, and many veterans took no time in warming up to him during off-season mini camps. KEY OVER trends: 11-2 O/U as home DOGS of 6.5< pts…. 4-1 O/U off BB SU wins… and 12-2 O/U vs .600> opponents. KEY UNDER trends: 2-6 O/U as home FAVS of 6.5< pts…. and 3-6 O/U as road DOGS of 3< pts.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - OFFENSE: 312.6 ypg (97.3 rush / 215.3 pass / 21.6 PPG). DEFENSE: 252.8 ypg (97.1 rush / 155.6 pass / 12.3 PPG). Offensive additions: Chris Simms (rookie QB / Texas), Terry Kirby (RB), Jacquez Green (WR), Jim Miller (QB). Offensive subtractions: Rob Johnson (QB). Jon Gruden did the unconventional last season. Despite having the league's 27th best running attack, The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. Gruden disguised his backfield inadequacies in a smart, accurate passing attack and generated just enough offense to be a winner. The good news for the Bucs is that times have changed and running attacks don't have to be great. They just need to be good. The bad news is that the Bucs were barely acceptable last year on the ground and did not improve themselves in the Draft. On the other side, the Defense is set. Allowing only 12.3 PPG and less than 160 passing yards per game were phenomenal numbers last season…. and there’s no reason why they can’t be just as good in 2003. KEY OVER trends: 6-2 O/U home after scoring 17< pts… and 7-1 O/U off BB SU losses. KEY UNDER trends: 3-7 O/U home vs non-conference opponents… 5-13 O/U off BB SU wins… and 10-20 O/U vs .400< opponents.
TENNESSEE TITANS - OFFENSE: 329.7 ypg (122.0 rush / 207.5 pass / 22.9 PPG), DEFENSE: 310.3 ypg (89.0 rush / 221.3 pass / 20.3 PPG). Offensive additions: Chris Brown (rookie RB / Colorado), Tyrone Calico (rookie WR / Mid Tenn St). Offensive subtractions: Kevin Dyson (WR), Neil O’Donnell (QB), Mike Green (FB). CB Samari Rolle and QB Steve McNair both gave rookie WR Tyrone Calico rave reviews after the team’s summer mini-camps. Rolle said he is just the kind of receiver they need — the new style of NFL receiver — big and fast. With the loss of Kevin Dyson and the Titan passing yardage going down last year, Calico will need to make an immediate impact. For Tennessee to contend for a 2003 Playoff spot, improvement will be needed in the Defensive secondary area, too. Hopefully, first-round pick Andre Woolfolk (CB) and fifth-round pick Donnie Nickey (FS) will pay instant dividends. KEY OVER trends: 12-2 O/U as home FAVS of 6.5< pts… 9-3 O/U vs non-conference opponents… and 10-5 O/U after scoring 17< pts. KEY UNDER trends: 3-8 O/U as road FAVS or DOGS of 3< pts…. and 4-10 O/U away vs division opponents.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS - OFFENSE: 321.4 ypg (118.1 rush / 203.4 pass / 19.2 PPG). DEFENSE: 299.2 ypg (109.6 rush / 189.6 pass / 22.8 PPG). Offensive additions: Trung Canidate (RB), John Hall (K), Chad Morton (KR), Laveranues Coles (WR), Patrick Johnson (WR), Taylor Jacobs (rookie WR / Florida), Rob Johnson (QB). Offensive subtractions: Stephen Davis (RB), Derrius Thompson (WR), Shane Matthews (QB). The ‘Skins raided the Jet cupboards during the off-season, and came away with some STUD players (Coles, Morton, Hall) that will help immediately on Offense. Also expect improvement from their off yardage ranking of #20 with the maturation of QB Patrick Ramsey and the acquisition of RB Trung Canidate. With an impatient owner, the pressure is on Steve Spurrier in 2003. Washington spent some major bucks in the off-season, and with a payroll that likely could exceed $86 million, the Redskins are on pace to be one of the top five clubs in terms of salary this year. And the team still has to be concerned with the futures of CB Champ Bailey and OLB LaVar Arrington — due raises and extensions after this season. KEY OVER trends: 5-1 O/U as home FAVS of 3< pts… and 7-1 O/U after scoring 35> pts. KEY UNDER trends: 1-5 O/U playing with REST…. 3-9 O/U with a line of 40 – 44.5 pts… and 1-8 O/U away vs .600> opponents.
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