Las Vegas is Not Disneyland, Part 8 (Cont. 3)

[Heath]

Must say I agree 100% with the comments about an independant bookmaker making the most money.

One of my closest friends in Atlanta is a bookmaker, and he hired me to make a 1st quarter side and total for every NFL game played last year.

I had no clue other than just general mathematical knowledge on how to do this. I had heard that one other book (CRIS maybe?) was offering them on every game as well, but
my friend told me we'd seek outside advice if his players were beating his number.


The results were phenomenal. The players loved it. In a year when many books SUPPOSEDLY didn't win as much as years past due to the "public" sides winning, he did very well. He'd take a dime parlay or 2 dimes on a 1st quarter side or total without blinking an eye.

He wasn't a rich man, and I say this not because my friend's brilliant or a big shot. Even the smallest of offshore bookamakers probably have more money than him.

But here's the thing: He knew what his bankroll was. He knew what his expectation was. He understood standard deviation, and he kept his limits in line with his starting capital. It was mathematically IMPOSSIBLE for him to go broke.

But a funny thing happens when you book "correctly" - your revenue model becomes much more effective.

What does "correctly" mean??? It means having enough money to pay off, and then taking as much action as possible on every single thing that can walk, crawl or cry. He had half time lines half way through the 2nd quarter of football games. He'd let guys bet an NBA game at half-time - provided they bet the same amount and they bet EVERY SINGLE GAME AT HALF TIME. (try this sometime for fun if you think its easy).

I'm amazed at how many bookmakers live in fear. I'm amazed at how many bookmakers live in utter ignorance of the mathematical principles that make them so wealthy.

My 'nothing special' bookmaking friend will soon be a millionaire, but he'll never be a genius. Its simple: The higher your handle the more you win.

I cringe when I hear of bookmakers that will only take a nickel parlay. I laugh when I see even the big shops put up a total like 9un70 or move an NBA total based on the vig.

Doesn't matter - the lot of them may be stupid, ignorant and heartless - they can't help but to stay in the money because the average players mix of poor money management and 11:10 will pretty mich make up for most if not all of the bookmakers mistakes.

I also laugh at the online advertising budgets of some Offshore Bookmakers. What idiots. If these guys would devote more time to increasing their handle from the players they have, they wouldn't have to worry about spending 10k=20k a month to advertise on the internet. Booking the Stock Market is a start (gee - what took these guys so long to figure this one out? If I was offshore, it take me about 5 minutes to start doing this. It took the bravest offshore outfits 5 YEARS do it. I'd make the average IQ of a bookmaker around 97). Its so simple: get creative on what you'll take action on. With the rest of the Bookmakers living in utter fear, word will get out, your handle will go up and you'll make more money and spend less.

Forgive the rant. Its also the only free consulting advice I'll ever get a bookmaker. Not they would listen - most think that because they've got safety deposit boxes full of hundred dollar bills that they know EVERYTHING.

[Heath]

After reading my previous post and seeing all the spelling and grammar errors, its quite conceivable than one may think I don't have a clue as to what I'm talking about.

I'd still be interested in hearing comments pro or con from some "in the industry"...

[BBKing]

I agree totally with Heath's comments. While I am not a bookmaker of any sort, i never understood why some of these shops couldn't get creative. If they're really worried about the bottom line and don't trust their own judgment, just set some low initial limits until they get the hang of it. So maybe the wiseguys don't play. But you still get action from the squares. Most small players I know like new bets. They get people talking, they bring attention. And in the competitive world of offshore booking, attention is good.

I'd love to hear one of the books comment on this. Maybe we're missing something.

[LQQKer]

Heath: I don't know if you caught an earlier post where I mentioned sharp line vs. "splitting the action." Turns out a buddy and I (this was some 8 years ago) got into an argument over what's best. To settle it, we built a monte carlo simulation where we put in reasonable assumptions and it was no contest, the sharper your line, the more bux you make. We also tried to get in "steam moves" but not sure we really sim'ed what happens there.

So, I totally agree on posting a solid opinion and doing everything you can to increase the handle...shoot maybe we ought to book ("Luke, come to the dark side; the dark side is stronger.")

re: spellos. Use da spel ckr, Luke! er, Heath in MS Word like I don't.

[WWTS Marketing]

Once again I'm forced to enter into your land of aliases and faceless individuals. Why is it none of you like your given names? I began reading this forum thinking I might get a feel for the pulse of the public. WRONG! It's turned into a book-bashing center filled with mundane questions such as... Should I post up with some no-name book with an unheard of reputation in some god-forsaken land?
Every player should have as many outs as he can afford. This enables him to shop for value. Why even consider some "Pie" in the "Sky Joint" when there are so many solid stores. (If a place offers the moon - remember you can only con a greedy person.) Forget about it, and get this site back to what it should be... A place to learn from others and have fun while doing so.
BOOK BASHING - How many people read the thread on Casablanca's sending fees? The administrator was, as usual, on his toes and did the right thing, but where's the retraction or apology from the alias that ran to his little keyboard and then "threw dirt?" Does an alias entitle you not having to check if a person has a father before labeling him a "bastard?"
Heath you asked how we overcome "Steam" and the amounts bet on those "moves" and then mention your friend in Atlanta. I ask you this. Does he have 10 phones ringing off the hook with all 10 trying to "get down" the limit at one number? By the way these 10 phones are for "Steamers" ONLY. Does he pay $100K a year for a license or the same amount per month for his phone bill? Does he have a payroll for 120 people? Your friend is a lucky man as most of us were until we took a few "busts." I wish him well. You're on the money when you say book correctly. Volume overcomes everything... So we don't overcome "Steam"... We naturalize it. We move the number to get the "buy-back" creating an "earn" for the house. Each player will bet what he can afford so the only way to increase your handle is to add to your customer base. If your bankroll is $100 or $10,000 a week I cannot expect you to bet more no matter what I offer. Wal-Mart advertises and they offer plenty of "props!" As for Stock Market wagering, Rugby etc., I will "book it" when I see enough demand to create action on both sides. I'll know this when I ask my friends at other offices how much they're writing on these gimmicks.
In closing, it's easy to play monopoly but would any of you buy that hotel on Boardwalk if you had to spend your own real money?

Thanks!
Roger

[BBKing]

Thanks for the input, Roger. Your post was very informative. Incidentally, I haven't heard many, if any, complaints with WWTS.

As far as well-managed bankrolls are concerned, it seems like most of the gamblers I know love action, and if they like something enough, they might stray from their usual limits. That's why bankroll management is always pounded into the reader by most worthwhile gambling texts.

I wasn't even thinking about action you have to book both ways. Remember when the Rockies scored in every inning for the first time in 35 years or something? I figured the odds of that happening are 28 (# of teams, averaged) times 162 * 35. That comes to 1 in 158,760 games. Granted, this is overly simplified, but I can't imagine that somebody would want to get down on their favorite team at, say, 200 to one for the season. Given that it takes place once every 35 years, on average, true odds are 980 to one. That's a lottery like take for a longshot.

Heck, maybe nobody would bet it. But what would it cost, 3/4 inch of online space?

Just a thought.

[BBKing]

Thanks for the input, Roger. Your post was very informative. Incidentally, I haven't heard many, if any, complaints with WWTS.

As far as well-managed bankrolls are concerned, it seems like most of the gamblers I know love action, and if they like something enough, they might stray from their usual limits. That's why bankroll management is always pounded into the reader by most worthwhile gambling texts.

I wasn't even thinking about action you have to book both ways. Remember when the Rockies scored in every inning for the first time in 35 years or something? I figured the odds of that happening are 28 (# of teams, averaged) times 162 * 35. That comes to 1 in 158,760 games. Granted, this is overly simplified, but I can't imagine that somebody would want to get down on their favorite team at, say, 200 to one for the season. Given that it takes place once every 35 years, on average, true odds are 980 to one. That's a lottery like take for a longshot.

Heck, maybe nobody would bet it. But what would it cost, 3/4 inch of online space?

Just a thought.

[Heath]

Roger -

Thanks a million for responding.

However, I don't really understand your arguments.

First, you say (about my friend in Atlanta):

Does he have 10 phones ringing off the hook with all 10 trying to "get down" the limit at one number? By the way these 10 phones are for "Steamers" ONLY. Does he pay $100K a year for a license or the same amount per month for his phone bill? Does he have a payroll for 120 people?

First - you guys are the exception, not the rule. Many offshore bookmakers aren't nearly this busy. Second, so what if he did have all these things that seem to come with running a very successful sports book? He'd still be brash and creative - If someone wanted to lay 11,000 to 10,000 that tomorrow's National Weather Forecast Offical High tempature in Kudzo, Nebraska would be an even number he'd take it. If that person wanted to parly it with the Nicks, he'd take that too. And, you could get down a lot more than most of those sissies in Vegas would dream of taking. Again, doesn't make him anything FANTASTIC - just smart enough to understand that HANDLE = MONEY as long as the number is good.

Third, I don't understand what this has to do with anything - are you saying you're too busy to try and increase your handle through exotic wagering? If so, then you are too busy to ad to your customer base as well. I don't think this is what you mean, though.
I think you mean that when the phones are ringing off the hook with folks looking to play a move, you couldn't care less what the casual "man on the street" does, right?

Also - 10 phones for steam? Makes sense - that way only one person (maybe 2?) can get a move in on each game. The rest are going to get a bad number - am I correct in this assumption? During the NBA season, how many people beat your guys to a number? More than 1 or 2 per play and I'd think his job would be in jeapordy.

Therefore, "overcoming steam" or neutralizing it really isn't a concern for you is it? The followers may put you heavy on a side, the buy backs even you out. You're fine.

When I spoke of "overcoming steam" - I was trying to figure out how the other books -spots like Skybook or CRIS where you see 99% of the moves originate - how do THEY overcome it? I'm assuming they are taking at least 5 figures on NBA sides from someone very close to the "order". They KNOW its sharp. Hell, the guy making the play is probably THE originator of the order in the first place. How, and why would they take such a big hit to a number from such a successful group of people - that was my question. Ego? Boredom? They've got plenty of "gamble". Maybe a combo of all of the above. I dunno, but I'm sure you do...

I'm sure that with a book your size its a waste of time for 99.9% of those people pounding your 10 phone lines trying to play a move. Your limits for these folks is such that you can't really get hurt unless all the folks taking the worst of the number - the followers - get hot.

Also I don't think this was directed at me, but I'm curious:

In closing, it's easy to play monopoly but would any of you buy that hotel on Boardwalk if you had to spend your own real money

If I had 500 dimes and the market was still there, I'd be down there in a heartbeat trying to be the best sports book on the planet. You guys have a big time head start on the rest.

Also:

Wal-Mart advertises and they offer plenty of "props!" As for Stock Market wagering, Rugby etc., I will "book it" when I see enough demand to create action on both sides. I'll know this when I ask my friends at other offices how much they're writing on these gimmicks.

I guess down there, where everyone's a "multi", its okay to share intimate knowledge of your business with your competition. I don't know if they'll give you a truthful answer - but my guess is these gimmicks are a lot like parlay cards - popular and profitable but a ton of extra work.

Thanks again for taking time to comment. BTW - I concur with the whole "name game". Answering allegations from someone that won't even identify themselves seems like a complete waste of time...

[Hartley]

>>Does an alias entitle you not having to check if a person has a father before labeling him a "bastard?" <<

Thanks for insulting so many people, with the number of single parent families out there.

[WWTS Marketing]

I want to apologize for the error made in my earlier posting. Instead of "naturalize" it's "neutralize." The error occurred in the statement below.

Roger


You're on the money when you say book correctly. Volume overcomes everything... So we don't overcome "Steam"... We naturalize it.

[WWTS Marketing]

.

[ray]

After reading Roger's post, here are my 2 cents.

I think Roger may want to read his post again. I believe you expressed yourself in a wrong way.

I understand there's another thread that bushed WWTS by freak is totally uncalled for. I haven't seen the Casablanca thread but I don't think most of the people here are trying to bush the books.

If you know what I mean, most of the books bushing in here are created by some other books, shills. But not the real players.

OK, sometimes some players may feel frustrated when they lost and vented in here, they haven't used a right way to express themselves but hey,

isn't it all about the same for all business if I am a customer and you need to take care of it?

"Should I post up with some no-name book with an unheard of reputation in some god-forsaken land?"

First of all, why would those people want to do that, because those "Pie" in the "Sky Joint" have something that those solid books will never match with.

For example, bonus.

Of course, if they want to try those un-named books, they also need to take the risk by themselves. But after they got cheat or hurted, I believe they still have the rights to say something or to vent in here, right?

Isn't it what this board all about?

We need to learn the good thing BUT we also need to hear the bads as we can avoid them in the future.

"If your bankroll is $100 or $10,000 a week I cannot expect you to bet more no matter what I offer. Wal-Mart advertises and they offer plenty of "props!" As for Stock Market wagering, Rugby etc., I will "book it" when I see enough demand to create action on both sides. I'll know this when I ask my friends at other offices how much they're writing on these gimmicks."

I don't agree with your statement. Even my bankroll is just 100 a week, it makes a big difference with what will you offer to me. Of course I would not suddenly bet 1000 per week but at least I WILL HAVE MORE CHOICES TO BET.

I will feel better about you and in the long run, you will get yourself more business.

I understand its not an easy thing to do for the books, its all about cost and benefit. But its more than just some gimmicks, they are also something about customer service and marketing.

Thats what solid books should be, thats why they were in front of the no-named books, thats why they have a better customer service, thats why they have more customers.

One more question, during the Spuer Bowl every year, most books will have about 200 different props for the event, do you really think there are such a great demand for all of those props?

How many times will John Madden say "Woo"?

Don't you think my reason above makes sense more?

Again, we maybe talking about 2 different direction here. If your book is only interested in those high rollers, then you are probably right and I apologize for my comments but if you are going to be a solid book and open your arms to the public, I think you should also think about my comments.

Thank you for your time.

[WhiteShoes]

many opinions galore......its given however,
that besides expenses, (this has to come
from the start up kitty and profits area)
a sportsbook has a great thing going with
the 11-10 (and higher). The average
manager should be able to swing a generous
profit while the great managers can
maximize the profit. It seems like
doing better than avg. requires two things: a good volume or handle, and good booking practices (odds) or a combination of both.
No mystery or conspiracy theories.

[WhiteShoes]

though i didn't mean to imply that
bookmaking and/or running is a sportsbook
is "easy", and/or something that doesn't
require an investment in time and work...

one would contemplate the fact thatthe business of bookmaking,
without having to formulate one's
own odds (on a more-or-less constant)
is easier (in theory) than beating a
sportsbook through handicapping!!

[Unregistered]

.