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Las Vegas is Not Disneyland, Part 8 (Cont. 3)

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  • Las Vegas is Not Disneyland, Part 8 (Cont. 3)

    One basketball season I worked as a runner for the same outfit that Robbie (Polar) did. And like Robbbie, I learned a lot from the Boss, a guy named Jeff. Working for Jeff, and seeing how he ran his operation, gave me the background to start my own betting/middling/money-moving operation.

    The season that I worked for Jeff I was stationed in the Tropicana, which was managed by Bobby Davis, a perky, positive red-headed guy who had learned how to book at Santa Anita before it closed down.

    Bobby had no interest in Roxborough's updates, wasn't afraid of the steam, and only moved his line on action. Furthermore, he welcomed runners and all action. Moreover, he claimed that the Tropicana's profit percentage on bets was well above the Vegas sportsbook industry average, a fact that he attributed to his own booking ability. I mention this as a testament to the fact that an astute, independent BM will always, in the long run, generate the most profit.

    Does a good BM, such as Bobby always impart his wisdom, sportsbetting and otherwise, to his assistants? I think not. Consider the following evidence:

    Bobby's assistant was a fat, bald, Italian guy whose name I can't remember. Anyway, I took a vacation to Thailand, and when I returned I told him about the wonders of the 16-20 year old females that I had spent my nights with. Well, the pervert wasn't interested in females that old; he said he was only interested in 12 year olds. He claimed that he was like his hero, French Existentialist guru, Jean Paul Sartre, who, the older he got, the younger the females he needed as company. Well, I was so disgusted by his depravity that I burned my copy of Sarte's existential Bible "Being and Nothingness," and converted my philosophical orientation from that of existential phenomenology to that of neo-Taoism.

    Gene Mayday was an innovative BM. He was the only BM I knew who offered teasers on NFL totals. If I remember correctly, the teaser odds on totals that he offered were the same as on the sides: even money on a two-team 6-point teaser and 6/5 on a two-team 7-point teaser. I researched these teasers and found that a book had between a 2-3% greater edge booking these teasers than they did on the sides. Gene was grateful when I showed him my research, and he said he did better percentage-wise booking totals teaser than he did sides teasers.

    Speaking of teaser odds, all of Vegas used to have the old NFL teaser odds, which I believe ABC still offers, of even money an two-team 6-point teasers and 6/5 on two-teaam 7-point teasers. Then, one year in the mid-80s, Chuck Sharp, a very famous Vegas sportsbettor who, since, partly because of hassles from the IRS, has retired to a life of golf and girls--older than 12 I hope--in Thailand, hammered the Dust for a few hundred dimes. Then, Vegas sportsbooks upped the teaser odds 10 cents.

    Middling college basketball was, as I stated in an earlier post, the best thing going in the 80s for middler/scalpers. The best thing going for bettors, if not NBA totals, was two-team 5-point teasers in college hoops. Points around 1-3 were so valuable that just crossing these number actually gave someone just guessing a slight mathematical edge over the house. Since the books weren't in business to lose money, the juice on 2-team 5-point teasers was upped from -120 to
    -130. And when the new rules--shot clock and 3-point shot--were introduced to college basketball, teasers went completely down the tubes as as a good deal.

    One of the biggest edges a player can have over a bookies is knowing exactly how much every number is worth. The Buddha said that the two worst sins are ignorance and laziness. Bookies, like most players, suffer from both. I've never met a bookie who knows close to what I do about the exact value of every number. (For example, exactly how many cents is it worth it to pay to buy off and on "3" in pro football? Is it worth 20 cents, 25 cents , or 30 cents?) No one publishes this information. I have thick notebooks from all the research I've done on the subject.

    What do bookies know? Is there a school for BMs? Why doesn't Roxborough provide an in-depth training program for Vegas BMs? Because knowledge is power. As soon as they know what he knows, they are no longer mindless clones dependent upon him.

    All BMs, including Monty and Roxborough suffer from periodic brain cramps. A couple of days ago, these guys opened Saberhagen and Boston on the road at pick against Montreal. When I saw that, I nearly **** in my pants. I knew it was the steam game of the day. The game never stopped moving until Saberhagen went to -138. Boston lost, but regardless, the BMs had royally screwed-up on their opening line.

    Because most bookies are ignorant and lazy, they have to be clones who copy someone else's betting lines. Someone once told me that Jesus adressed some sportsbettors and when one complained to him about bookmakers, Jesus said, "Forgive them, for they know not what they do."



  • #2
    Reno, Roxy used to have a little question and answer segment on his web site and people would ask him questions about lines, books etc. As it turned out, he felt he was "giving away too much information" and closed down the segment.

    FWIW, I think Roxy's lines suck - especially for the non-traditional sports like auto racing, horse racing and golf. The lines are incredibly skewed in favor of the bettors. When I asked WSEX why they no longer offered NASCAR matchups they told me that using Roxy's lines they were consistently losing 20-25% each year. Now what I've noticed is that for NASCAR nobody uses Roxy's lines. If you go to Intertops, WWTS, Bowman's, DAS etc. every book has different lines and completely different matchups. But the one thing that all these books have in common is that they are foreign owned and operated.

    I have a feeling that as British, Australian, Austrian etc. books become more predominant you will find a different set of lines than Roxy's and much slower movement. Overseas, gambling has been legal for years and they are true bookmakers. Once they start feeling more comfortable with American sports I think you'll see more independant linemaking from these books. After all, in reality William Hill has a lot more experience in bookmaking than LVSC or Cris.

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    • #3
      Good point Hartley. However, my guess is that the foreign books will stick with Roxy unless and until the bottom line suffers. Although these guys could always hire somebody from the States, I presume that it would be difficult for them to develop a thorough understanding of American sports without any history on their side. On the other hand, as Reno said, what we are really dealing in is mathematics and I agree these guys really know what they are doing on that score or they would have been gone long ago. When I was in London back in '91, I wanted to bet Barcelona with points against London in World Football. They didn't have such a bet; they had certain odds for each team winning by 1-6 points, 7-10 points, 11-19 points, and so on. I have enough trouble picking a winner without having to guess close to the exact margin of victory.

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      • #4
        -
        Last edited by Don Best; 03-17-2003, 12:38 PM.

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        • #5
          Obviously by Roxy we mean LVSC. I think Roxy is still somewhat involved in setting the lines though, albeit most of it now is done by UCLA, Stanford and UNLV grads. I remember seeing a post in the question and answer phase where someone asked him about how to become a bookmaker and he told the person to get courses from the best universities in probability studies and also to major in mathematics. If they were good LVSC would consider them as statisticians for the business. I guess this is proof that intuition and knowledge of the games means little in setting lines nowadays.

          The question and answer segment on DBC was Roxy's, but from what I understand others at LVSC asked him to get rid of it because he was leaking too much info. I don't know how true that is.

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          • #6
            Hartley, Good post...but this forum should not be used to educate bookmakers. Any comments about Roxy’s weak Nascar lines belong in Bookie’s Hell or in your weekly article. Now we’ll never find a book using Roxy’s Nascar lines.

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            • #7
              I apologize for constantly using Roxy's name instead of LVSC. Just an old habit from my days in Vegas.

              Roxy is actually a real nice guy, and far from a know-it-all. He was always all ears when I talked to him, very eager to pick up information of any kind. He told me that he knew there were always holes in his lines, and that the rare bettor who is able to combine mathematical astuteness with feeling-perception (left brain and right brain integration?)for what the right line on a game should really be, would always be able to beat his numbers. He also said, and this was in the 80s, that bettors had gotten a lot sharper and more sophisticated. As a result, making a betting line that would attract equal action on both sides (the goal of conservative BMs) had become virtually the same as making the best line mathematically.

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              • #8
                Reno - more informative and very intriguing posts. I agree that not many bettors are really willing to put in the time to determine the true edges they can get over the books.

                loved the line on left and right brain integration. those that can pull that off are the ones that really come out ahead.
                yes

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                • #9
                  Reno, and with the internet now everyone has access to tons of information

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                  • #10
                    Allot of the purely mathmatical
                    holes (5 point college hoop teasers, football
                    teasers, college hoop middles, nba middles...
                    sort of..) have been discovered and corrected,
                    but the individual game "holes in the line"
                    seem to be there still
                    One stat to look
                    at is the "avg. number of points that teams
                    win or lose by, compared to the line". This
                    number hasn't changed much either way (for
                    any sport) since 1984. (don't know about
                    before this) What this means is that there's still a tremendous
                    amount of money bet on games which aren't,
                    fully researched! Hardly anyone it seems gets
                    beyond a few basic team or league stats,
                    even some of the pros!

                    Reno: I know what you're talking about with
                    the password problem. Just copy your message to your computer clip board before you send it. Sometimes just hitting the back
                    button does the trick too.


                    12 years old?....i thought you had to be
                    Elvis or Jerry Lee Lewis for this

                    w.s.

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                    • #11
                      Making the right mathematically is easy in basketball but more complicated in baseball and football.

                      For example, consider the NBA. It is easy to make a PR for each team, based on their average margin of victory or loss.(AOPR balances out after a number of games in professional leagues. In college hoops, you need a computer or access to the information for this) A big mistake that bettors suffer from in all sports is using H/A stats. In every sport that I researched, I found it better to use the league average for the home field, or court, over the previous 3 seasons. Creative research is the key to success. For example, if you took all the teams in a particular sport, say the NBA, that were good on the road and poor at home the first half of the season, on the average, in the second half of the season, their home court average will revert back to the league average. The only exceptions for using the league average for home court would be Utah and Denver, simply due to the altitude effect. Regression-to-the-mean is a powerful factor that most sportsbettors don't consider.

                      When Vegas oddsmakers first started putting out NBA totals--before I arrived in town--they were mathematically-challenged. They were too stupid to understand basic principles of math. For example if the league average is 200 points per game, and two teams each averaging 220 total points in their games play each other, what should the line, from a purely mathematical standpoint, be? They would make the total line 220. Well, the Crab knew the insanity of this and he made enough money betting NBA totals in the early days of NBA totals to retire at an early age. In reality, the right mathematical line should be 242. ( If team A is averaging 220 against the league average of 200, and they are playing a team that is also averaging 220--which is 1.1 times the league average, you would simply multiply 220 x 1.1 = 242.

                      You don't need calculus, algebra, geometry, or trig for sportsbetting. It's simple junior-high level math, but creatively applied.

                      In baseball, I believe home teams have won 54.5 % of the time over the past three seasons, which equals 20 cents if two even teams play each. In other words, If team A is at home, they would be -120, and if team B is at home, they would be -120. If you make team A -200 on a neutral field,then you would have to add 40 cents for the home field advantage instead of 20 cents.

                      These are just some examples to help neophytes understand some of the basics that go into making the right line mathematically. Also, it will help them start thinking about how to do creative statistical research.

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                      • #12
                        Reno I must confess. To me the Italian guy you mentioned and those like him are the biggest threat to gambling. A lot of people equate gambling with organized crime, prostitution, perversion and drugs. The truth is that absolutely none of the things are related and for the most part gambling is just a business. Hell, every government runs lotteries, casinos etc. but the bad apples in gambling who do turn to these other tactics give people like Kyl the fodder to go after the gamblers. That's why when I look at a gambling related site (whether it be a forum like this or a sportsbook) and on the front page I see a pornographic image I get totally turned off. As soon as I see the image I feel like I no longer have any interest to see more of the site. This has nothing whatsoever to do with my tastes or my feelings about pornography, but it seems to me that a sportsbook or forum that feels it has to stoop to these tactics doesn't deserve my business. In reality the biggest pervert and sex addict is president of the United States but Kyl can't shut him down.

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                        • #13
                          I would say the reason it's easier to
                          come up with a decent, hard number in
                          basketball is the nature of the game.
                          Fewer players, higher number of scoring
                          plays leading to less abberrant results,
                          no weather to factor in, and the higher
                          number (nba) of games one has to look at.
                          (baseball has many games for teams, but not
                          for pitchers)

                          However, in basketball you have more
                          important player on player matchups to
                          consider than say baseball or football, where one or two player matchups may not have much
                          effect. So hoop has, imo, more subjective
                          handicapping involved than other sports.
                          (in addition to he travel, rest factors)

                          hoop is like a long-distance foot race with
                          dribbling added, wrestling moves allowed to take place, and the goal being to put
                          as many balls into hoops as possible before
                          you "lose your legs".

                          where this thread is heading I'm not sure...
                          been fun so far.

                          w.s.

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                          • #14
                            Reno

                            Very interesting theory on NBA home and away.

                            Please help me understand your example.

                            Take the last three years avg. from the differential between home and away of all the teams in the league?

                            that should be somewhere around 3 pts. correct?

                            I really appreciate the time you put in yout posts...very informative.

                            MV

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                            • #15
                              Yeowie, first Hartley talks about using regression for his NASCAR picks, now I'm seeing some basic math concepts and J. P. Sartre discussed by Reno. I flung out some math during the NFL season and got the equivalent of electronic "blank stares."

                              Maybe Baseball season brings out the non-bellyrubbing, pencil-neck geek types, but I love it.

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