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AL EAST
1) New York Yankees UNDER 99 wins
-- This is an absurd total. Despite the Yankees dominance since 1996, they've only won 100+ games twice in seven years. The 99 basically splits the difference between 2001 (95 wins) and 2002 (103). Regression to the mean brings us to the under.
2) Boston Red Sox OVER 92 wins
-- Tough call. Even with their good teams lately, the Bosox topped out at 93 wins last year, 94 in 1999 and 92 in 1998. If they go over, it won't be by much.
3) Toronto Blue Jays OVER 78½
-- For all the grief they get, the Jays have won 78+ games each of the last five years. Of course, each year their win total actually DROPPED slightly. Time for that to change.
4) Baltimore Orioles UNDER 71½ wins
-- What's their to like here? 67 and 63 wins the past two years and they've done nothing to get better.
5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays UNDER 65½ wins
-- My goodness, how bad is this franchise? They've topped this total just TWICE in five years. For they're history, the Rays AVERAGE just 63.6 wins per season. No way can you bet them to win more than 65½.
AL CENTRAL
1) Minnesota Twins OVER 87½ wins
-- But just barely. Pythag says the Twins were the luckies team in baseball last year, when they won 94. They've improved their wins three straight years. Regression to the mean sets in -- I just don't think it costs them 8 wins playing in this division.
2) Cleveland Indians OVER 71½ wins
-- Let me be the first to predict second place for the Tribe. Not necessarily because they are good, and not even because they will have a winning record. Just because their division sucks. The Indians will win more games than last year (74) but won't have a winning record. That still puts them over the total, and in second place because ...
3) Chicago White Sox UNDER 87 wins
-- When is it time to blame the manager? Jerry Manuel is still living off the year when it all came together for the ChiSox, the 95-win 2000 season where they promptly crapped their pants in the postseason. Instead of continually expecting the Sox to repeat that, isn't it wiser to figure they will fit the mold of mediocrity Manuel has produced since he became the full-time manager in 1998? Under Manuel, Chicago has won 82, 75, 95, 82, and 81 games. Why expect more? This team will piss itself once again.
4) Kansas City Royals OVER 65 wins
-- They are going to be bad this year.
5) Detroit Tigers UNDER 64 wins
-- They are going to be WORSE!
AL WEST
1) Oakland A's OVER 94 wins
-- Two straight seasons of 100+ wins are enough to convince me. With their pitching, 90 wins should be easily reached.
2) Texas Rangers OVER 80½ wins
-- There's tons of young talent bursting at the seams of the offense (Blalock, Teixiera, Mench). Health returns to Carl Everett, Juan Gonzalez and Einar Diaz (they hope). They scored 843 runs last year with Michael Young, Herbert Perry, and Gabe Kapler combining for 1,219 crummy ABs -- Young and Perry will be lucky to combine for 300 this year. If they get ANY starting pitching at all, they will be a winning team. Last year, this was one of the darling teams many expected to go to the playoffs. Now they are being dismissed. Gotta like that.
3) Anaheim Angels UNDER 91½ wins
-- Let's face it Angels, you got lucky last year! Yes, you were good, but not that out-of-nowhere good. A dozen consecutive years of 85 or less wins, then a 99-win season and World Series does not an over bet make. Back to mediocrity for Anaheim, whose woes are already beginning (Glaus wrist injury, Washburn shoulder injury).
4) Seattle Mariners UNDER 90 wins
-- That league-leading offense is long gone. Edgar Martinez is injury-prone, Brett Boone continues to sink back to normal (or worse), Ichiro has flattened out and no one else strikes fear. The pitching staff is slowly being depleted (Freddy Garcia abuse, Kaz Sasaki elbow troubles, relying on Ryan Franklin and Gil Meche in the rotation??). Uncle Lou left. Or maybe I'm just daring to be different.
Recommended plays: NYY under 99, Cle over 71½, Det under 64, Oak over 94, Ana under 91½, Sea under 90
RECAP
AL EAST: NYY (96-66), Bos (94-68), Tor (83-79), Bal (67-95), TB (59-103)
AL CENTRAL: Min (89-73), Cle (80-82), Chi (79-83), KC (69-93), Det (60-102)
AL WEST: Oak (106-56), Tex (88-74), Ana (85-77), Sea (79-83)
PLAYOFFS
Oakland d. Boston
Minnesota d. NYY
ALCS: Oakland d. Minnesota
A-Rod
CY: Tim Hudson
ROY: Brandon Phillips
MAN: Buck Showalter
NL EAST
1) Atlanta Braves OVER 91 wins
-- So wouldn't it be funny if the Braves pitching fell off but their offense finally sparked? Couldn't that prevent the Braves from losing their 19-game advantage from a year ago? And that was over MONTREAL!!! The pundits all pick Philadephia to break through this year. Vegas still paints the Braves as the favorite. They should be. They'll drop off a bit pitchingwise, but they still have the best outfield in the NL (the Joneses and Sheffield), Robert Fick will help, and a healthy Marcus Giles and Rafael Furcal give them more than enough offense up the middle. It's not over yet.
2) Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 87½ wins
-- The NL's version of the Texas Rangers. Watch that ball fly all over Veterans Stadium this year -- for both teams. Philly's team ERA of 4.50 was ninth in the NL last year, and adding Kevin Millwood won't be enough to vault them near the top. They get second just because they can score runs.
3) Montreal Expos OVER 75 wins
-- Does anyone remember that the Expos finished second and over .500 last year at 83-79? They still aren't a contender, but they will give foes fits. The rotation is solid all the way through, they always find good arms for the pen, and there are some fine hitters on this squad. Any injury will kill them, as well as any edicts from the Commissioner's office to cut costs.
4) Florida Marlins OVER 74½ wins
-- This is a poorly run franchise, yet still the Marlins have managed between 76 and 79 wins each of the last three years. This year's squad isn't any worse. It just should be better -- but with a Torborg-led coaching staff and Jeff Loria running the operation from above, fuggetabouitit.
5) New York Mets UNDER 86 wins
-- They haven't hit rock bottom yet, not if they are planning on running Jeromy Burnitz, Ty Wigginton, Roger Cedeno, and Rey Sanchez out there every day. There's not near enough pitching to overcome that; in fact, the back end of the rotation is an implosion waiting to happen.
NL CENTRAL
1) Chicago Cubs OVER 82 wins
-- When all things look equal, why not go with the longshot? St. Louis, Houston, and Chicago look pretty even. The Cards and Astros are the favorites, but the Cubs fave more than 5/1 odds. But the Cubs pitching looks like the best, and that's even before factoring in breakout candidates. Any of Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Matt Clement, and Carlos Zambrano could suddenly dominate. There's plenty of good arms in the pen -- and Dusty Baker will use them wisely. They just need to figure out a way to prevent Alex Gonzalez and Mark Grudzielanek from sucking up 1,300 ABs up the middle.
2) Houston Astros OVER 89 wins
-- Not by much, though. Too much uncertainty in the starting rotation (Brian Moehler, Tim Redding, and Jeriome Robertson as the 3-5 starters) and the Biggio experiment could cause a Chernobyl-like meltdown. At the same time, there are enough studs on this team to offset the weak areas.
3) St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 90 wins
-- Three straight 90-plus win seasons and three straight division titles for Tony LaRussa and company. But doesn't it always seem like this team is held together by thread and Ace bandages? Last year, only Matt Morris started more than 24 games. In 2001, only four players managed more than 500 ABs -- and one was Placido Polanco! And that was double the number of 500+ AB hitters in 2000. Either the position players or pitching staff is falling apart. What if both go at the same time? Third place, that's what.
4) Cincinnati Reds OVER 78½ wins
-- Face reality, Reds -- you cannot cobble together a championship team. There are some young stud hitters here (Kearns, Dunn, Boone) and plenty of offensive talent. BUT GET A REAL PITCHING STAFF!
5) Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 73½ wins
-- Intriguing. They'll probably flirt with .500 most of the season. But ultimately they will remember they are the Pittsburgh Pirates and flop. They are destined not to have another winning season until Barry Bonds retires.
6) Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 64
-- Worst ... record ... ever? Sure, why not. This team is so sad, there is only one player you can say is a real candidate to hit more than 10 HRs. And none to win more than 10 games.
NL WEST
1) Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 86 wins
-- Using the NL Central strategy of taking the longshot when everything looks equal, we present the 2003 L.A. Dodgers. At 3/1, they aren't quite as long a shot as the Cubs, but the D'Backs are favored with the Giants right behind, yet L.A. looks just as good. No Johnson and Schilling to anchor the pitching staff here, but for total staff, the Dodgers could be as good as anyone. There's really no one to HATE in the offense, but they do need a couple of breakout performances (like maybe from Adrian Beltre, or a ROY-like performance from Joe Thurston) to make it happen.
2) Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 90½ wins
-- As long as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling live, pencil them in for 45-50 wins between them. That means everyone else can suck and they still win 91. There's enough here to make a race out of it once again -- and make everyone wonder about the benefits of Geritol.
3) San Francisco Giants OVER 86 wins
-- They've won 86+ each of the last six years. Though they lost their manager and Jeff Kent, they've done a lot to improve this season. Ray Durham, Jose Cruz, Edgardo Alfonzo, Damien Moss, and Marquis Grissom all join the squad, not to be stars but to fill roles. The star role belongs to Barry Bonds, and as long as he's at the top of his game, the Giants are near the top of the division.
4) Colorado Rockies UNDER 73½ wins
-- They've won 73 or less three of the last four years, and nothing makes me believe a huge step up is coming. The offense is still not up at the levels when the Rockies were first born, and the pitching is a bunch of goofballs. This is too tough a division for someone to come without their cannons loaded.
5) San Diego Padres UNDER 72½ wins
-- Maybe next year. Already two studs are down for the count (Phil Nevin, Trevor Hoffman). The youth movement is nice, but won't pay off til next year.
Recommended plays: NYM under 86, ChiC over 82, Mil under 64, AZ over 90½, SF over 86
RECAP
NL EAST: Atl (95-67), Phil (84-78), Mon (81-81), NYM (78-84), Fla (74-88)
NL CENTRAL: Chi (93-69), Hou (90-72), St.L (84-78), Cin (82-80), Pit (74-88), Mil (50-112)
NL WEST: LA (95-67), AZ (92-70), SF (87-75), Col (70-92), SD (67-95)
PLAYOFFS
Arizona d. Atlanta
Los Angeles d. Chicago
NLCS: Los Angeles d. Arizona
WORLD SERIES Los Angeles d. Oakland
MVP: Sammy Sosa
CY: Randy Johnson
ROY: Joe Thurston
MAN: Jim Tracy
1) New York Yankees UNDER 99 wins
-- This is an absurd total. Despite the Yankees dominance since 1996, they've only won 100+ games twice in seven years. The 99 basically splits the difference between 2001 (95 wins) and 2002 (103). Regression to the mean brings us to the under.
2) Boston Red Sox OVER 92 wins
-- Tough call. Even with their good teams lately, the Bosox topped out at 93 wins last year, 94 in 1999 and 92 in 1998. If they go over, it won't be by much.
3) Toronto Blue Jays OVER 78½
-- For all the grief they get, the Jays have won 78+ games each of the last five years. Of course, each year their win total actually DROPPED slightly. Time for that to change.
4) Baltimore Orioles UNDER 71½ wins
-- What's their to like here? 67 and 63 wins the past two years and they've done nothing to get better.
5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays UNDER 65½ wins
-- My goodness, how bad is this franchise? They've topped this total just TWICE in five years. For they're history, the Rays AVERAGE just 63.6 wins per season. No way can you bet them to win more than 65½.
AL CENTRAL
1) Minnesota Twins OVER 87½ wins
-- But just barely. Pythag says the Twins were the luckies team in baseball last year, when they won 94. They've improved their wins three straight years. Regression to the mean sets in -- I just don't think it costs them 8 wins playing in this division.
2) Cleveland Indians OVER 71½ wins
-- Let me be the first to predict second place for the Tribe. Not necessarily because they are good, and not even because they will have a winning record. Just because their division sucks. The Indians will win more games than last year (74) but won't have a winning record. That still puts them over the total, and in second place because ...
3) Chicago White Sox UNDER 87 wins
-- When is it time to blame the manager? Jerry Manuel is still living off the year when it all came together for the ChiSox, the 95-win 2000 season where they promptly crapped their pants in the postseason. Instead of continually expecting the Sox to repeat that, isn't it wiser to figure they will fit the mold of mediocrity Manuel has produced since he became the full-time manager in 1998? Under Manuel, Chicago has won 82, 75, 95, 82, and 81 games. Why expect more? This team will piss itself once again.
4) Kansas City Royals OVER 65 wins
-- They are going to be bad this year.
5) Detroit Tigers UNDER 64 wins
-- They are going to be WORSE!
AL WEST
1) Oakland A's OVER 94 wins
-- Two straight seasons of 100+ wins are enough to convince me. With their pitching, 90 wins should be easily reached.
2) Texas Rangers OVER 80½ wins
-- There's tons of young talent bursting at the seams of the offense (Blalock, Teixiera, Mench). Health returns to Carl Everett, Juan Gonzalez and Einar Diaz (they hope). They scored 843 runs last year with Michael Young, Herbert Perry, and Gabe Kapler combining for 1,219 crummy ABs -- Young and Perry will be lucky to combine for 300 this year. If they get ANY starting pitching at all, they will be a winning team. Last year, this was one of the darling teams many expected to go to the playoffs. Now they are being dismissed. Gotta like that.
3) Anaheim Angels UNDER 91½ wins
-- Let's face it Angels, you got lucky last year! Yes, you were good, but not that out-of-nowhere good. A dozen consecutive years of 85 or less wins, then a 99-win season and World Series does not an over bet make. Back to mediocrity for Anaheim, whose woes are already beginning (Glaus wrist injury, Washburn shoulder injury).
4) Seattle Mariners UNDER 90 wins
-- That league-leading offense is long gone. Edgar Martinez is injury-prone, Brett Boone continues to sink back to normal (or worse), Ichiro has flattened out and no one else strikes fear. The pitching staff is slowly being depleted (Freddy Garcia abuse, Kaz Sasaki elbow troubles, relying on Ryan Franklin and Gil Meche in the rotation??). Uncle Lou left. Or maybe I'm just daring to be different.
Recommended plays: NYY under 99, Cle over 71½, Det under 64, Oak over 94, Ana under 91½, Sea under 90
RECAP
AL EAST: NYY (96-66), Bos (94-68), Tor (83-79), Bal (67-95), TB (59-103)
AL CENTRAL: Min (89-73), Cle (80-82), Chi (79-83), KC (69-93), Det (60-102)
AL WEST: Oak (106-56), Tex (88-74), Ana (85-77), Sea (79-83)
PLAYOFFS
Oakland d. Boston
Minnesota d. NYY
ALCS: Oakland d. Minnesota
CY: Tim Hudson
ROY: Brandon Phillips
MAN: Buck Showalter
NL EAST
1) Atlanta Braves OVER 91 wins
-- So wouldn't it be funny if the Braves pitching fell off but their offense finally sparked? Couldn't that prevent the Braves from losing their 19-game advantage from a year ago? And that was over MONTREAL!!! The pundits all pick Philadephia to break through this year. Vegas still paints the Braves as the favorite. They should be. They'll drop off a bit pitchingwise, but they still have the best outfield in the NL (the Joneses and Sheffield), Robert Fick will help, and a healthy Marcus Giles and Rafael Furcal give them more than enough offense up the middle. It's not over yet.
2) Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 87½ wins
-- The NL's version of the Texas Rangers. Watch that ball fly all over Veterans Stadium this year -- for both teams. Philly's team ERA of 4.50 was ninth in the NL last year, and adding Kevin Millwood won't be enough to vault them near the top. They get second just because they can score runs.
3) Montreal Expos OVER 75 wins
-- Does anyone remember that the Expos finished second and over .500 last year at 83-79? They still aren't a contender, but they will give foes fits. The rotation is solid all the way through, they always find good arms for the pen, and there are some fine hitters on this squad. Any injury will kill them, as well as any edicts from the Commissioner's office to cut costs.
4) Florida Marlins OVER 74½ wins
-- This is a poorly run franchise, yet still the Marlins have managed between 76 and 79 wins each of the last three years. This year's squad isn't any worse. It just should be better -- but with a Torborg-led coaching staff and Jeff Loria running the operation from above, fuggetabouitit.
5) New York Mets UNDER 86 wins
-- They haven't hit rock bottom yet, not if they are planning on running Jeromy Burnitz, Ty Wigginton, Roger Cedeno, and Rey Sanchez out there every day. There's not near enough pitching to overcome that; in fact, the back end of the rotation is an implosion waiting to happen.
NL CENTRAL
1) Chicago Cubs OVER 82 wins
-- When all things look equal, why not go with the longshot? St. Louis, Houston, and Chicago look pretty even. The Cards and Astros are the favorites, but the Cubs fave more than 5/1 odds. But the Cubs pitching looks like the best, and that's even before factoring in breakout candidates. Any of Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Matt Clement, and Carlos Zambrano could suddenly dominate. There's plenty of good arms in the pen -- and Dusty Baker will use them wisely. They just need to figure out a way to prevent Alex Gonzalez and Mark Grudzielanek from sucking up 1,300 ABs up the middle.
2) Houston Astros OVER 89 wins
-- Not by much, though. Too much uncertainty in the starting rotation (Brian Moehler, Tim Redding, and Jeriome Robertson as the 3-5 starters) and the Biggio experiment could cause a Chernobyl-like meltdown. At the same time, there are enough studs on this team to offset the weak areas.
3) St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 90 wins
-- Three straight 90-plus win seasons and three straight division titles for Tony LaRussa and company. But doesn't it always seem like this team is held together by thread and Ace bandages? Last year, only Matt Morris started more than 24 games. In 2001, only four players managed more than 500 ABs -- and one was Placido Polanco! And that was double the number of 500+ AB hitters in 2000. Either the position players or pitching staff is falling apart. What if both go at the same time? Third place, that's what.
4) Cincinnati Reds OVER 78½ wins
-- Face reality, Reds -- you cannot cobble together a championship team. There are some young stud hitters here (Kearns, Dunn, Boone) and plenty of offensive talent. BUT GET A REAL PITCHING STAFF!
5) Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 73½ wins
-- Intriguing. They'll probably flirt with .500 most of the season. But ultimately they will remember they are the Pittsburgh Pirates and flop. They are destined not to have another winning season until Barry Bonds retires.
6) Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 64
-- Worst ... record ... ever? Sure, why not. This team is so sad, there is only one player you can say is a real candidate to hit more than 10 HRs. And none to win more than 10 games.
NL WEST
1) Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 86 wins
-- Using the NL Central strategy of taking the longshot when everything looks equal, we present the 2003 L.A. Dodgers. At 3/1, they aren't quite as long a shot as the Cubs, but the D'Backs are favored with the Giants right behind, yet L.A. looks just as good. No Johnson and Schilling to anchor the pitching staff here, but for total staff, the Dodgers could be as good as anyone. There's really no one to HATE in the offense, but they do need a couple of breakout performances (like maybe from Adrian Beltre, or a ROY-like performance from Joe Thurston) to make it happen.
2) Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 90½ wins
-- As long as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling live, pencil them in for 45-50 wins between them. That means everyone else can suck and they still win 91. There's enough here to make a race out of it once again -- and make everyone wonder about the benefits of Geritol.
3) San Francisco Giants OVER 86 wins
-- They've won 86+ each of the last six years. Though they lost their manager and Jeff Kent, they've done a lot to improve this season. Ray Durham, Jose Cruz, Edgardo Alfonzo, Damien Moss, and Marquis Grissom all join the squad, not to be stars but to fill roles. The star role belongs to Barry Bonds, and as long as he's at the top of his game, the Giants are near the top of the division.
4) Colorado Rockies UNDER 73½ wins
-- They've won 73 or less three of the last four years, and nothing makes me believe a huge step up is coming. The offense is still not up at the levels when the Rockies were first born, and the pitching is a bunch of goofballs. This is too tough a division for someone to come without their cannons loaded.
5) San Diego Padres UNDER 72½ wins
-- Maybe next year. Already two studs are down for the count (Phil Nevin, Trevor Hoffman). The youth movement is nice, but won't pay off til next year.
Recommended plays: NYM under 86, ChiC over 82, Mil under 64, AZ over 90½, SF over 86
RECAP
NL EAST: Atl (95-67), Phil (84-78), Mon (81-81), NYM (78-84), Fla (74-88)
NL CENTRAL: Chi (93-69), Hou (90-72), St.L (84-78), Cin (82-80), Pit (74-88), Mil (50-112)
NL WEST: LA (95-67), AZ (92-70), SF (87-75), Col (70-92), SD (67-95)
PLAYOFFS
Arizona d. Atlanta
Los Angeles d. Chicago
NLCS: Los Angeles d. Arizona
WORLD SERIES Los Angeles d. Oakland
MVP: Sammy Sosa
CY: Randy Johnson
ROY: Joe Thurston
MAN: Jim Tracy
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