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My Humble Super Bowl Opinion
SUPER BOWL XXXVII
Sunday, January 26th
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA
OAKLAND (13-5 SU/12-6 ATS) vs. TAMPA BAY (14-4 SU/12-6 ATS)
The Super Bowl this year will feature the Oakland Raiders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The game will showcase Oakland's number one rated offense against Tampa Bay's number one rated defense. Hollywood couldn't have scripted a better match-up than this one. The game will feature Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden facing a Raiders team he coached for four season prior to this year. He steered the Raiders to a 40-28 mark in his four seasons (1998-2001) with the club, including postseason appearances in 2000 and 2001. Under Gruden, the Raiders advanced to the AFC title game in 2000 and lost last season in a divisional playoff game to eventual Super Bowl champion New England. Gruden's offenses have finished among the league's top 10 in each of the last three seasons. Prior to his four seasons with Oakland, Gruden spent 1995-97 as offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles and three years (1992-94) as wide receivers coach for Green Bay Packers. He also worked as offensive assistant for San Francisco 49ers in 1990. Gruden's last game with the Raiders ended with a spirit-sapping loss in the snow in New England. It came after an apparent fumble the Raiders recovered late in the game was ruled an incomplete pass, and it provided these Raiders even more motivation. His counterpart will be Oakland head coach Bill Callahan. Callahan became the 13th head coach in Oakland Raiders history on March 12, 2002. Callahan, 45, spent the past four seasons as offensive coordinator for the Raiders. In addition to serving as offensive coordinator, Callahan also coached the Raiders' offensive line for the past three seasons and doubled as tight ends coach in 1998. In 2001, with Callahan as offensive coordinator, the Raiders captured their second consecutive American Football Conference Western Division title, finishing second in the AFC (fourth in NFL) in passing at 231.7 yards per game and fourth in the conference in total offense (seventh in NFL) with 335.1 yards per game average. Last year under Callahan's tutelage, the Raiders allowed only 27 sacks, the least ever in franchise history in a 16-game regular season as Oakland advanced to the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. Oakland is in the Super Bowl after defeating the Jets and the Titans in the playoffs. Oakland beat New York 30-10 as -5½ point chalks two weeks ago and disposed of Tennessee 41-24 as -9 point chalks last week. Against Tennessee, they did it their way, blending a renegade past with a pass-happy present to defeat the Titans. Rich Gannon, the 37-year-old league MVP, led the way with three touchdown passes and another score he ran in himself. His thirty-something teammates -- Bill Romanowski, Rod Woodson and Tim Brown -- along with 40-year-old Jerry Rice, sent the Raiders and maverick owner Al Davis to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1984. The Raiders had a split personality against the Titans. The one we are all accustom to saw Oakland get called for 14 penalties for 127 yards, including a handful of cheap shots and a bevy of vicious hits on Steve McNair, who paid a huge price for his 194 yards passing and two rushing touchdowns. The new side of the Raiders saw Oakland call exactly one running play over the first three quarters, leaving the work to Gannon, who threw 41 times for 286 yards and scrambled for 41 more, including a fourth-quarter touchdown. The Raiders took the lead for good late in the second quarter, when linebacker Eric Barton stripped Tennessee's Robert Holcombe, giving Oakland the ball at the Tennessee 16. Two plays later, Gannon hit tight end Doug Jolley for a score and a 21-17 lead. On the next play, special teams got into the act, forcing a fumble by John Simon and setting up a field goal for a seven-point lead at the half. For the Raiders, this trip to the Super Bowl is especially sweet considering their recent playoff past. There was the New England game last year. And two seasons ago, they had home-field advantage in the title game, but the Baltimore Ravens brought one of the NFL's best-ever defenses to town, knocked Gannon out of the game and left the Raiders empty. WR Tim Brown will go to the Super Bowl for the first time in his sterling career. He led the Raiders with nine catches for 73 yards. Jerry Rice will go for his fourth title. He made five catches, including two that gave the Raiders first downs inside the 10, en route to touchdowns. Tampa Bay is in the Super Bowl for the first time in team history. The Bucs are in the big game via playoff wins over 31-6 win over San Francisco as -6½ point home chalks and a 27-10 win at Philadelphia last week as +4½ point road underdogs. Against the Eagles, the Buccaneers forgot about the cold and their past. They simply rolled up their sleeves and let their league-leading defense go to work. After being stunned by a Philadelphia touchdown in the first minute of the NFC Championship game Sunday, the Bucs shut down Donovan McNabb and company to beat the Eagles. After the Eagles' early flurry, sparked by Brian Mitchell's 70-yard return of the opening kickoff, it was all Tampa Bay. The Bucs led 17-10 at halftime and stifled Philadelphia after intermission. Mike Alstott was one of several Bucs wearing short sleeves, almost in defiance of the 26-degree cold at kickoff. The wind chill was 16. Alstott scored on a 1-yard run at the end of a 96-yard drive in the first quarter that was highlighted by Joe Jurevicius' 71-yard catch-and-run. Brad Johnson threw a 9-yard TD pass to Keyshawn Johnson in the second quarter, and Ronde Barber's 92-yard interception return with 3:12 left in the game clinched it after the Eagles had driven 73 yards to the Bucs 10. Martin Gramatica kicked two field goals. The Bucs had lost three consecutive games at Veterans Stadium, unable to score even one offensive touchdown. They had only one victory ever in temperatures under 40. They were 0-6 in postseason road games. And they had to face some of the league's toughest fans on slippery turf in the Vet's final NFL game. They overcame it all, dismissing a dismal 20 years as the league's worst franchise that only changed direction when they discarded the orange jerseys they had worn from their inception in 1976 to 1997. Since then, Tampa Bay has missed the playoffs just once. QB Brad Johnson finished 20-of-33 for 259 yards against a Philadelphia secondary with three Pro Bowl selections, allowing the Bucs to control the ball and the clock, especially in the first half. The defense, meanwhile, totally controlled McNabb, who finished 26-of-49 for 243 yards in just his second game back after missing six games with a broken right ankle. Simeon Rice and Barber had sacks that ended potential rallies. The Bucs started playing in 1976, lost their first 26 games, then made a brief run at the playoffs. Then, from 1983-96, they did not have a winning season and lost 10 or more games in 13 of those 14 seasons. Until December 29th, when they beat the woeful Chicago Bears in temperatures in the 30s in Champaign, Illinois, the Bucs were 0-21 when it was colder than 40. And the past two years, they had been bounced from the playoffs in Philadelphia, where they also lost in October. The chill didn't bother them Sunday, nor did the surroundings. The Raiders strength is passing the football. The Bucs have the best pass defense numbers in the past two decades. During the regular season, opponents had a 48.4 quarterback rating against the Bucs and Tampa Bay had 31 interceptions. They allowed only 10 passing touchdowns. Oakland and Tampa Bay played three common opponents this season. San Francisco - Tampa Bay beat the 49ers 31-6 as -6½ point home chalks, while Oakland lost to the 49ers 23-20 as -3 point home favorites. Pittsburgh - Tampa Bay lost to the Steelers 17-7 at home as -4½ point chalks, while Oakland beat Pittsburgh 30-17 as +3½ point road underdogs. St. Louis - Tampa Bay beat the Rams 26-14 as +3 point home underdogs, while Oakland lost to the Rams 28-13 as -8 point road favorites. Tampa Bay and Oakland have net four time since 1993. In the last meeting between them on December 19th, 1999, Oakland beat Tampa Bay in Oakland 45-0 as -1½ point home favorites. Prior to that, Tampa beat the Raiders 41-7 (+2½) in an exhibition game on August 24th, 1998. In 1996, Tampa Bay (+5) beat the Raiders 20-17 and in 1993 the Raiders beat the Bucs 27-20. Here are some recent trends that favor both teams: Oakland -Oakland ranks first in the NFL in offense, averaging 389.5 yards per game. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and the "under" is 10-2 in Raiders last 12 games overall. Tampa Bay - The Bucs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 9-3 ATS on grass surfaces this season. The NFC is 14-2-2 ATS in the past 18 Super Bowls. The team that has the better defense in the Super Bowl is 18-6 ATS the last twenty four years. Now let's take a look at how these two teams compare statistically. As mentioned, Oakland sports the NFL's number one offense, averaging 389.5 yards per game, while Tampa Bay counters with the NFL's 24th rated offense, averaging 312 yards per game. Defensively, Tampa bay ranks first in the NFL, allowing a mere 252.8 yards per game. Oakland comes in with the NFL's 11th ranked defense, allowing 311.2 yards per game. Surprisingly, Oakland has the better rushing defense, allowing 90.8 yards per game (3rd in NFL), while Tampa Bay ranks 6th, allowing 97.1 yards per game. Tampa Bay's passing defense is ranked number one in the NFL, allowing 155.6 yards per game, while Oakland's pass defense ranks 23rd in the league, allowing 220.4 yards through the air per game. It is always said that defense win championships, and that is usually the case in any sport on any level. With that being said, Tampa Bay plus the points seems like the logical choice in this one.
Sunday, January 26th
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA
OAKLAND (13-5 SU/12-6 ATS) vs. TAMPA BAY (14-4 SU/12-6 ATS)
The Super Bowl this year will feature the Oakland Raiders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The game will showcase Oakland's number one rated offense against Tampa Bay's number one rated defense. Hollywood couldn't have scripted a better match-up than this one. The game will feature Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden facing a Raiders team he coached for four season prior to this year. He steered the Raiders to a 40-28 mark in his four seasons (1998-2001) with the club, including postseason appearances in 2000 and 2001. Under Gruden, the Raiders advanced to the AFC title game in 2000 and lost last season in a divisional playoff game to eventual Super Bowl champion New England. Gruden's offenses have finished among the league's top 10 in each of the last three seasons. Prior to his four seasons with Oakland, Gruden spent 1995-97 as offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles and three years (1992-94) as wide receivers coach for Green Bay Packers. He also worked as offensive assistant for San Francisco 49ers in 1990. Gruden's last game with the Raiders ended with a spirit-sapping loss in the snow in New England. It came after an apparent fumble the Raiders recovered late in the game was ruled an incomplete pass, and it provided these Raiders even more motivation. His counterpart will be Oakland head coach Bill Callahan. Callahan became the 13th head coach in Oakland Raiders history on March 12, 2002. Callahan, 45, spent the past four seasons as offensive coordinator for the Raiders. In addition to serving as offensive coordinator, Callahan also coached the Raiders' offensive line for the past three seasons and doubled as tight ends coach in 1998. In 2001, with Callahan as offensive coordinator, the Raiders captured their second consecutive American Football Conference Western Division title, finishing second in the AFC (fourth in NFL) in passing at 231.7 yards per game and fourth in the conference in total offense (seventh in NFL) with 335.1 yards per game average. Last year under Callahan's tutelage, the Raiders allowed only 27 sacks, the least ever in franchise history in a 16-game regular season as Oakland advanced to the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. Oakland is in the Super Bowl after defeating the Jets and the Titans in the playoffs. Oakland beat New York 30-10 as -5½ point chalks two weeks ago and disposed of Tennessee 41-24 as -9 point chalks last week. Against Tennessee, they did it their way, blending a renegade past with a pass-happy present to defeat the Titans. Rich Gannon, the 37-year-old league MVP, led the way with three touchdown passes and another score he ran in himself. His thirty-something teammates -- Bill Romanowski, Rod Woodson and Tim Brown -- along with 40-year-old Jerry Rice, sent the Raiders and maverick owner Al Davis to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1984. The Raiders had a split personality against the Titans. The one we are all accustom to saw Oakland get called for 14 penalties for 127 yards, including a handful of cheap shots and a bevy of vicious hits on Steve McNair, who paid a huge price for his 194 yards passing and two rushing touchdowns. The new side of the Raiders saw Oakland call exactly one running play over the first three quarters, leaving the work to Gannon, who threw 41 times for 286 yards and scrambled for 41 more, including a fourth-quarter touchdown. The Raiders took the lead for good late in the second quarter, when linebacker Eric Barton stripped Tennessee's Robert Holcombe, giving Oakland the ball at the Tennessee 16. Two plays later, Gannon hit tight end Doug Jolley for a score and a 21-17 lead. On the next play, special teams got into the act, forcing a fumble by John Simon and setting up a field goal for a seven-point lead at the half. For the Raiders, this trip to the Super Bowl is especially sweet considering their recent playoff past. There was the New England game last year. And two seasons ago, they had home-field advantage in the title game, but the Baltimore Ravens brought one of the NFL's best-ever defenses to town, knocked Gannon out of the game and left the Raiders empty. WR Tim Brown will go to the Super Bowl for the first time in his sterling career. He led the Raiders with nine catches for 73 yards. Jerry Rice will go for his fourth title. He made five catches, including two that gave the Raiders first downs inside the 10, en route to touchdowns. Tampa Bay is in the Super Bowl for the first time in team history. The Bucs are in the big game via playoff wins over 31-6 win over San Francisco as -6½ point home chalks and a 27-10 win at Philadelphia last week as +4½ point road underdogs. Against the Eagles, the Buccaneers forgot about the cold and their past. They simply rolled up their sleeves and let their league-leading defense go to work. After being stunned by a Philadelphia touchdown in the first minute of the NFC Championship game Sunday, the Bucs shut down Donovan McNabb and company to beat the Eagles. After the Eagles' early flurry, sparked by Brian Mitchell's 70-yard return of the opening kickoff, it was all Tampa Bay. The Bucs led 17-10 at halftime and stifled Philadelphia after intermission. Mike Alstott was one of several Bucs wearing short sleeves, almost in defiance of the 26-degree cold at kickoff. The wind chill was 16. Alstott scored on a 1-yard run at the end of a 96-yard drive in the first quarter that was highlighted by Joe Jurevicius' 71-yard catch-and-run. Brad Johnson threw a 9-yard TD pass to Keyshawn Johnson in the second quarter, and Ronde Barber's 92-yard interception return with 3:12 left in the game clinched it after the Eagles had driven 73 yards to the Bucs 10. Martin Gramatica kicked two field goals. The Bucs had lost three consecutive games at Veterans Stadium, unable to score even one offensive touchdown. They had only one victory ever in temperatures under 40. They were 0-6 in postseason road games. And they had to face some of the league's toughest fans on slippery turf in the Vet's final NFL game. They overcame it all, dismissing a dismal 20 years as the league's worst franchise that only changed direction when they discarded the orange jerseys they had worn from their inception in 1976 to 1997. Since then, Tampa Bay has missed the playoffs just once. QB Brad Johnson finished 20-of-33 for 259 yards against a Philadelphia secondary with three Pro Bowl selections, allowing the Bucs to control the ball and the clock, especially in the first half. The defense, meanwhile, totally controlled McNabb, who finished 26-of-49 for 243 yards in just his second game back after missing six games with a broken right ankle. Simeon Rice and Barber had sacks that ended potential rallies. The Bucs started playing in 1976, lost their first 26 games, then made a brief run at the playoffs. Then, from 1983-96, they did not have a winning season and lost 10 or more games in 13 of those 14 seasons. Until December 29th, when they beat the woeful Chicago Bears in temperatures in the 30s in Champaign, Illinois, the Bucs were 0-21 when it was colder than 40. And the past two years, they had been bounced from the playoffs in Philadelphia, where they also lost in October. The chill didn't bother them Sunday, nor did the surroundings. The Raiders strength is passing the football. The Bucs have the best pass defense numbers in the past two decades. During the regular season, opponents had a 48.4 quarterback rating against the Bucs and Tampa Bay had 31 interceptions. They allowed only 10 passing touchdowns. Oakland and Tampa Bay played three common opponents this season. San Francisco - Tampa Bay beat the 49ers 31-6 as -6½ point home chalks, while Oakland lost to the 49ers 23-20 as -3 point home favorites. Pittsburgh - Tampa Bay lost to the Steelers 17-7 at home as -4½ point chalks, while Oakland beat Pittsburgh 30-17 as +3½ point road underdogs. St. Louis - Tampa Bay beat the Rams 26-14 as +3 point home underdogs, while Oakland lost to the Rams 28-13 as -8 point road favorites. Tampa Bay and Oakland have net four time since 1993. In the last meeting between them on December 19th, 1999, Oakland beat Tampa Bay in Oakland 45-0 as -1½ point home favorites. Prior to that, Tampa beat the Raiders 41-7 (+2½) in an exhibition game on August 24th, 1998. In 1996, Tampa Bay (+5) beat the Raiders 20-17 and in 1993 the Raiders beat the Bucs 27-20. Here are some recent trends that favor both teams: Oakland -Oakland ranks first in the NFL in offense, averaging 389.5 yards per game. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and the "under" is 10-2 in Raiders last 12 games overall. Tampa Bay - The Bucs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 9-3 ATS on grass surfaces this season. The NFC is 14-2-2 ATS in the past 18 Super Bowls. The team that has the better defense in the Super Bowl is 18-6 ATS the last twenty four years. Now let's take a look at how these two teams compare statistically. As mentioned, Oakland sports the NFL's number one offense, averaging 389.5 yards per game, while Tampa Bay counters with the NFL's 24th rated offense, averaging 312 yards per game. Defensively, Tampa bay ranks first in the NFL, allowing a mere 252.8 yards per game. Oakland comes in with the NFL's 11th ranked defense, allowing 311.2 yards per game. Surprisingly, Oakland has the better rushing defense, allowing 90.8 yards per game (3rd in NFL), while Tampa Bay ranks 6th, allowing 97.1 yards per game. Tampa Bay's passing defense is ranked number one in the NFL, allowing 155.6 yards per game, while Oakland's pass defense ranks 23rd in the league, allowing 220.4 yards through the air per game. It is always said that defense win championships, and that is usually the case in any sport on any level. With that being said, Tampa Bay plus the points seems like the logical choice in this one.
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