Las Vegas is not Disneyland, Part 3

[boris]

Hartley,
Megasports Australia is not a pari-mutuel set-up. It is definitely fixed-odds, but I know the parent company has other ventures which are of the no-skill, no-value variety.

[aussievamp]

Boris,

I have no doubt that Megasports is looking to get into pari-mutuel in Australia if they can though. I have read an article they provide some sort of service at Bruce Stadium. Do you know if this is just
the same thing, fixed odds type betting, or something else?

[LQQKer]

OK, this parimutual, pari-mutual...uh screw the spello, guys. What is the house %? I know in the horse business the rack is 15 to 20% making it damn near impossible to win consistantly plus the more bux you put in the more you bend the odds.

If these guys are above the 4.5% (thereabouts) of a normal book why go with them?

[reno]

Responses to post replies:

1) Hartley, I don't know anything about Joe Luppo. Regarding Bob McCowan, why bother with him if he thinks the Vegas lines are now unbettable, which is a bunch of malarkey.

2) Junior44, I can't tell you about Binion's in the 70's, as that is before my time. Maybe there are some oldtimers out there who can fill us in.

My disenchantment with Vegas is two-fold: First, because of the government crackdown on syndicate betting and the new GCB changes institued in the late 80's, I lost a great deal of money. Not only did the changes force me out of business, they also caused me to get stiffed big-time from private bookies who were closed down and had their money confiscated by the Feds. We were also moving money for a guy, now deceased, from back East, who had fronted us a couple hundred dimes. When the heat hit, he asked for his money back. And my partner, who had had his hand in the cookie jar all along, used my money to repay him. When our business ceased, my share of the operation was gone.

Second, Vegas is symbolic of what is happening to world culture. This phenomenon, aptly termed "the Los Angelization of the planet" by MIT professor William Irving Thompson, is turning America, and now parts of the the world, into a cookie-cutter clone-like facsimile of Los Angeles. In the USA, most towns look alike, with the same multi-national franchises, shopping malls, apartment complexes, and housing tracts. Now, these nauseating franchises are everywhere. Go to Asia or Central America, as I have, to take a break from the plastic, repetitive sterility that has become America, and you will see 7-11s, Mc Donalds, Pizza Huts, etc. America, via its economic success and Hollywood movies and TV shows, has won, and the results are global.

Vegas now represents the same sterility. Everything is cold, corporate, contrived, and formulaic. The sportbooks, for the most part, are run by clone-like empty suits who simply do what Roxy tells them. Thank goodness for the Internet and offshore sportsbetting.

Someone in an ealier post asked me to "spill the beans" about sportsbetting. I can't do that for a simple reason: Unlike the stock market, which literally creates new wealth, thus making a win-win situation possible, sportsbettting is a zero-sum game. If someone wins, someone else must lose. Educating others jeopardizes my position in a very fragile marketplace. If I told others exactly what I do, they might go after the same numbers at the same time in the same places. Also, the BMs who read this forum would become armed with the information and adjust accordingly.

If I recall right, some poster earlier stated something to the effect that bettors are never busted for illegal betting. Not true. I know guys in Vegas who were busted and prosecuted for simply giving betting information across state lines. The Feds would drive around Vegas in a van with a large satellite dish-like contraption in the back, aim the contraption at a phone booth, and perfectly pick up the conversation. I used to periodically see them parked in the lot where Little Caesar's and Churchill Downs were located.

[LQQKer]

I hear you Reno. Agree with everything you say except for zero-sum game. Sports betting is a negative sum game because there has to be a bookie somewhere to make a market. This is the reason most everyone is a long term loser, even a thin 11/10 margin will grind the average guy down over time.

BUT, I'll go on record to say the internet will change that. Sooner or later a Sports market will be built that provides a place where buyer and seller can get together and pay zero or close to zero commisions. Sorta like a Sports Ebay.

BTW, the Stock market has been a long term positive sum game, at least in the US, for the last 100 or so years (certainly measured by the DOW). However, my buds over here in Europe point out that due to the last two wars, that has not been the case in some countries here. At least not in the countries that lost the wars...

You pays your money and takes your chances, I guess...

Oh, one last point, re: "Vegas Lines are unbettable." This statement sorta worries me as I'm moving to the area this fall, does this statement mean: 1) lines are too sharp 2) betting limits are too low 3)or what?

Thanx, Reno. I have to echo others here: I always learn something from your posts...

[BillS]

LQQKER, Your comment about the Ebay type atmosphere where a buyer and seller could get together and bet on a game is something I have often wondered about. In effect, you would take risk out of the equation for the books; they would get their commision and bettors would not have to worry about all the bullcrap they do now( like getting chased). Is something like this possible? who knows. It would possibly take a big company to act as an exchange and a lot of volume to make it work. You might even need someone with enough knowledge to act as a marketmaker to help facilitate bets. This whole idea may be a dream and there may be problems with it that I have yet to think of, but technology could someday change the whole face of betting making something like this possible.

[oddswiz]

BillS.....not only is it possible,it's been a reality for a few years.Check out this site....http://www.betex.com/

Also,there was a company back in the early days of the net and sports wagering,called Wagernet....far as I know,they never really got off the ground,due to lawsuits,etc.etc.I think the guys name was Kerry Rogers,and they were going to be set up in Belize.

[LQQKer]

Odds: I looked at Bet-X and they charge more than the 11/10 I always see in football and I can't load up on the poor smuck I bet with (I can only do $500, man).

If they get their commision down in the 1-2% range, then they start sounding good.

[LQQKer]

Oh, I wanted to make one more point on syndicate betting.

Basically, it seems that a bunch of pros find razor thin advantages for around 1 to 2% above the vig and they pound it with everything they got just to make a few bux. It's like in the movie Rounders,the wise guys "grinding" out a small advantage over time. Sports betting being basically a very thin market (other than NFL and NBA, I guess) this pounding really rocks a lot of books and I guess I can see where they've (the Books) get seriously tired of it.

Fish like the rest of us are tamer, easier to deal with, and not subjet to all the thrashing around the "heavy breathers" do (steam I guess they call it).

I guess I'm looking for a more elegant way. I really would like to find a set of techniques that can seriously outperform the lines. Something that really gets at the essence of what makes an NFL team run, play and win. Making bux is only part of all that.

[boris]

Vamp,
Hadn't heard of the Bruce Stadium thing, too far away from me. May be just an on-venue licence like the Adelaide bookie, Thornton Sports, has at the cricket, or Vic TAB has at the footy,cricket,golf etc. I'll see what I can find out...

[aussievamp]

boris, thanks for the Bruce thing - read about it in that Sports Insider newsletter thing I think - on Canbet?

Yeah, National Sportsbet has outlets here at the MCG for example.

[grubbie]

reno - another one of your astute observations is correct, as a I don't have much regard for the "legendary" Sonny Reisner. I repect his ability as a bookmaker, but his people/managerial skills are the worst I have ever been associated with. However, my post here is to try and lend my insight into the sports book industry.
First, the assumption that Roxy is responsible for the lines seen in the Vegas casinos is not correct. To the best of my knowledge, Roxy's part of LVSC(Las Vegas Sports Consultants) was bought out by DBC(Data Broadcasting Company). The odds coming from that office today are produced by Scott, Pete, Joel, John, and Cesar ( I'm sorry if I forgot somebody). But, Roxy and LVSC still seem to remain synonymous.
Second, I believe the proliferation of sporting events in which to wager on has helped to cause "weak" lines. Having to produce odds on NASCAR, weekly golf tourneys, arena football, WNBA, etc. takes valuable time away from oddsmakers who still must try to produce accurate lines for the "major" sports. Also, how many oddsmakers/bookmakers know alot about MAC football, OVC basketball, and other relatively obscure college teams. I'm sure sharp bettors out there know more than the oddsmakers about the sports/teams I listed above. Doesn't mean these sharp bettors will win everytime...just that they have an advantage over the oddsmakers.
The most frustrating aspect of the sports book industry for me is the attitude by casino managment toward the sports books. As far as casino executives are concerned, sports/race books are nothing more than an amenity. The book is to be filled with casino customers who like to wager on sports; not sports bettors. No wonder internet wagering has become so popular.

[reno]

Response to post replies:

1) Believe it or not, my ex-partner was involved in a number of fruitless ventures with Kerry Rogers, whom I've never met. According to my ex-partner, Rogers is a smart guy who lacked the know-how and follow-through to make WagerNet or any of his other ventures successful.

2) Grubbie, it was definitely an oversight of mine not to point out that LVSC makes the lines, and not Roxy personally. I'm not sure what what kind of input Roxy has these days. Is the Pete you refer to Pete Korner, who used to be a handicapper who put out some baseball publications, and then for awhile wrote free-lance articles for national sports magazines? Is he the main baseball expert at LVSC? Also, is John the same John who came aboard in the 80's and who is a whiz in college hoops? If I remember correctly, LVSC brough on some guy named John in the late 80's, and all of a sudden
the college basketball lines got better and our computer program no longer won.

Also, be advised that in my next "Las Vegas is not Disneyland " post I'm going to play devil's advocate and take the side of the casinos. I'll explain why it makes perfect sense for them to get rid of syndicate betting and runners, and why a clone-like empty suit is now the ideal choice for managing a sportsbook in contemporary Vegas.

[freak]

Joe Luppo is indeed the manager at stardust. Very staunch and really doesn't bend the rules unless it is to cater to the corporate side.

At opic we haven't talked about yet, which I think alot may be interested in. Is to talk about the scamdicappers like Mike Warren, JIm Feist, Stu Feiner, Jack Price etc etc...

I never joined any of these services but I know of some folks that did. The stories are very indicative of just how fraudulent these guys really are.

The sad thing is people out there truly believe these guys really know something noone else does. With the wealth of information out there now, you would think people would wise up, unfortuneately they never will.

Just a twist to the conversation.

[grubbie]

reno - I'm not sure of Pete Korner's background; just that he is now Operations Manager at LVSC. John Harper is indeed the college baketball guru. Scott worked for LVSC, went to Bowman's, and now is back in Vegas at LSVC. Though I may occasionally shake my head at some of their numbers, I have nothing but respect for the job they do on a day to day basis.(they have alot more experience at this than I do!!)