preseason football

[freefallin]

Is it worth it to bet preseason football or are you better off to wait until the regular season rolls around?

[ppeter]

For many years it was definately worth it. Certain coaches (The Tuna, Denny Green, etc.) could always be counted on to win preseason games at any cost. However, with all the coaching changes and a breakdown of certain known systems and trends, it has been a money loser (at least for me) over the past two seasons. For instance, it is no longer a good trend to bet on a team playing a second game versus a team playing a first game. This system has become to well known and the books have adjusted. Also, keep in mind that preseason lines are notoriously volitile given the lack of liquidity...it is not uncommon for a preseason nfl line to move a full touchdown by gametime.

[Jeff]

The coaching angle is worth a look, no doubt. Some coaches simply don't care.

Another angle that once was profitable (I haven't checked it in years) was to play ON a team that hadn't won yet going into it's last pre season game. The logic simply being no team wants to go into the regular season without experiencing a win. Likewise, play AGAINST a team that's undefeated going into the last game......

Also VERY important is to pay attention to starting QB's. Often times it's not known until gameday which QB's will get more playing time. This not only can give you an edge but if you're ahead of the rest you can get a jump on the line move!

Good Luck!

[The Prophet]

The Prophet on preseason NFL 'capping

I wrote the following article on preseason NFL handicapping last summer. Some of the ATS records may have changed since then, but the concepts are still valid. My offer for free preseason NFL handicapping is still valid as well.

BETTING THE NFL PRESEASON: THE CASE FOR AND AGAINST
by Jim Murphy/THE PROPHET

I've received a lot of email over the past few weeks wanting to know what I think about betting preseason football. That's not really surprising, since there doesn't seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater "lock" that preseason football. Like most things that illicit such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.

First, let's examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don't count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That's not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.

The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the "better" team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the "better" teams have not only more "marquee names" to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they'll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They'll have no need to "create a winning attitude", nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the "better" teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.

Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A "lesser" team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they'll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games--whether or not they count in the standings--are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won't have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league's elite can mean a lot more.

Even among teams that don't worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don't want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.

Perhaps nothing determines a team's approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line 'em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. Currently, Jacksonville under coach Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) has been covering preseason games in droves. Over the past three preseasons, the Jags are 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS during the preseason. They're a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, and 5-0 ATS in their final preseason affair. Clearly, this sort of dominance isn't lost on the linesmaker and Jacksonville's ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.

One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it's a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you'll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren't any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach's goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they're considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There's nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the regular season, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.

Having said all of that, I don't recommend that you bet the farm on preseason football. Actually, you shouldn't bet the farm on any sporting event, but definitely not preseason football. My personal philosophy is to play on a lot of potentially advantageous preseason situations, but to limit them to a half unit. That way if everything works like it should you'll have a few units of profit earned going into the regular season, but if things don't go well you haven't dug too deep a hole either. Typically, my clients have been able to bank at least a couple or three units of profit during the preseason. Some years have been better, but I've never had to go into a regular season NFL campaign "in the hole". Handicapping preseason football is an entirely different animal from the regular season, and must be approached in an entirely different manner. As always, discretion is the better part of valor.

So if you get tout come-ons saying that preseason football is the best money making opportunity of your life, don't believe them. In fact, what I've been doing for the past several years is just giving away my preseason football releases to anyone who wants them. I just can't bring myself to take peoplexs money for the preseason games, and hopefully what will happen is that they'll turn a profit on my exhibition releases and sign up for the regular season slate. If you'd like to get in on my free preseason NFL releases just drop me an email at free@netprophetsports.com and tell me you saw my article on the website. I'll add you to our free play list--which has hit at 59-60% for the past four years in all sports--and you'll get the entire NFL preseason free of charge. You'll also be eligible for a special rate for our regular season football service, which has never had a losing season and put 30+ units of profit into our clients' pockets last year.

In closing, the best advice I can offer is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It's a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other-and better-football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.

JRM
THE PROPHET
www.netprophetsports.com

[STEVE TURNER]

The Prophet had some great pros and cons on betting pre-season football. It has been my experience that pre-season football has been easy to beat on a limited basis. Winning in pre-season is all about information.