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Sportsbook Scene - Buzz Daly

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  • Sportsbook Scene - Buzz Daly

    September 7, 2001

    Absent Columnist Back on Job,
    Focusing on Weekend Football Coverage

    Out of sight, out of mind … from the emails sent our way, we realize we are flirting with the implications of that comment so, after a three-week dry spell, here’s some fresh material.

    We have a mountain of good stuff to pass along, but with the arrival of a big football weekend, including the launch of the 2001 NFL season, we’ll concentrate on picks and handicapping analysis.

    Jimmy Vaccaro and I resumed our radio show for the 2001-2002 season on August 30. The Winning Line is broadcast 9-10 PM every week on KRLV 1340 AM Las Vegas. The show is streamed live and archived for a week at www.audiovegas.com. If there is a game on – like there was the night of our first show – we are on when the game concludes.

    Jimmy was 2-0 last week, and Thursday night he gave out Michigan +3.5 at Washington. He thinks the Huskies will have a difficult time replacing three-year starter Marques Tuiasosopo, who was a brilliant field general. Also, the offensive line has four new faces, which will take time to work cohesively as a unit.

    In the NFL, New Orleans -1 at Buffalo is a solid play, says Jimmy. He didn’t get the opening number of Buffalo -1, or the move to Pick, but feels the Saints have more talent and are headed in a different direction than the Bills.

    A third play that wasn’t mentioned on the air is Boston College +5 at Stanford. B.C. has already shown a tough running game, powered by a ferocious offensive line. Stanford doesn’t figure to stop this team.

    Kelso Sturgeon, who is featured on Friday morning’s Sports Gaming Report on the same Las Vegas station, is taking Alabama at Birmingham +29 over Florida State. It is a look-ahead game for the Seminoles, who have Georgia Tech on tap next week in a season-make-or-break game. UAB’s defense figures to keep the distracted favorite within the generous margin.

    Fresno State +4 at Wisconsin is his other college pick. In two games this year, the 2-0 Bulldogs have demonstrated that they are not an average team, but an outstanding unit that plays with attitude. After giving a tough Oregon State team all it could handle last week, Wisconsin figures to be FSU’s last major test enroute to a potentially perfect season.

    Looking to the NFL, Kelso has a big bias toward the under 34 between Miami and Tennessee. Both teams play tenacious D, with neither having a predilection towards running up scores. Both teams are powered by a running back – George (Tennessee) and L. Smith, Miami – which should chew the clock.

    Rounding out his plays, Sturgeon picked Tampa Bay -9 over Dallas. The Buccs should dominate Dallas, whose defense is not nearly what it used to be, while T.B. should easily cover the medium impost.

    Marketing Renaissance. Despite a preponderance of me-too marketing among offshore books, which is simply raising the ante on signup bonuses, there is a lot of smart, innovative, highly targeted advertising being generated by some of the industry’s top players.

    The sports betting industry’s longest running handicapping publication, The Gold Sheet, this year has added two offshore sportsbooks to its small, select roster of recommended sportsbooks. WWTS and Pinnacle join Canbet, which has been with TGS for several years.

    “WWTS is proud and delighted to be affiliated with such an outstanding organization as The Gold Sheet,” said marketing manager Salma. “We know how fussy it is about making certain that it lends its good name to a reputable book … one that will honor commitments to customers,” she added. WWTS is licensed and regulated by the government of Antigua.

    At Curacao-based Pinnacle, which is licensed under the auspices of the government of the Netherlands Antilles, we spoke with Javier, the marketing manager. He said The Gold Sheet’s recognition of Pinnacle was most appreciated, and is vindication for the way Pinnacle conducts its business.

    “We don’t give away the store to sign up players,” advised Javier, adding, “It’s not the seasoned bettors who insist on big bonuses. It’s the rookies, who don’t know any better.

    “We offer advantages that the player generates for himself by virtue of low vig, no vig and better payoffs on parlays and teasers, with reduced prices on the Internet. Savvy players ‘get it’, and jump all over themselves to sign up with us. By the nature of our book, its high limits and attractive betting menu, we appeal to a more sophisticated group of players.

    “But even novices – who can tell the difference between a meager, one-time signup bonus versus the attractiveness of everyday edges and advantages Pinnacle offers its players – are quick to sign up at Pinnacle,” Javier noted.

    In recommending these shops to its audience, The Gold Sheet wants to give readers the opportunity to play with confidence among several books, said TGS publisher Mort Olshan. “Shopping for the most favorable numbers can affect your bottom line,” he added.

    “In selecting these three books to recommend to our players, we did our due diligence very carefully. Our customers are our greatest asset and we would not take any chances where they are concerned.

    “We know these companies to be among the most respected sports facilities in operation. That is precisely why we can in good faith recommend three widely respected international ‘stores’ to shop at.”

    However, Olshan noted that, “Despite the fact they are paid advertisers, our commitment to beat them remains uncompromised.”

    WWTS is at www.betwwts, Pinnacle Worldwide is www.planetpinnacle.com, and Canbet can be found at www.canbet.com.au.

    Film Junkie Debut. Each week on our site, www.buzzdaly.com, we’ll include analysis and picks from an ex-Big 12 wide receiver who is now a professional man in the midwest, but who spends an inordinate amount of time analyzing game film. Hence the moniker “Mike, the Film Junkie”. Of course, Mike is a serious bettor.

    Since our site won’t be up ‘til next week, we are using this space to launch Mike’s analysis and picks. Here’s his analysis of selected games this Saturday, September 8:

    Finally, we have matchups where film was obtainable on both teams! As you may know, film study is the only reliable method of analyzing games. Alas, if one has no film from both teams, one cannot offer meaningful analysis.

    The first two weekends have produced a few surprises but probably none bigger in the average fan’s eyes than Fresno State. This week’s opponent for the “other FSU” is Wisconsin, which has also played back-to-back games against credible opponents in Virginia and Oregon.

    Wisconsin-Fresno State. About 85% of Wisconsin’s offense revolves around four basic plays including off tackle left, off tackle right, draw, and the stop passing route. They also ran the sweep left 11 times in their first two games, but all were in the Virginia game and thus must be a situation play rather than a “pet” play. One must also keep in mind that Virginia’s defense is fairly slow compared to speed defenses such as Oregon and Fresno State, which probably accounts for the sweep left calls against Virginia that were lacking against Oregon.

    How did Fresno State handle the Badgers’ pet plays in the first two games against Colorado and Oregon State?

    * Off tackle left: Only gave up 2.0 yards per play (13 attempts) to All-American type backs in Ken Simington (OSU) and Cortlen Johnson (CU). This play will get stuffed by Fresno.

    * Off tackle right:: Gave up 3.5 yards per play (18 attempts) but Colorado and Oregon State each only had one gain longer than five yards in each game while Wisconsin has averaged 2.89 per play (on 18 attempts) with only 3 plays over 4 yards which accounted for the great bulk of their yards on this play thus far this year. Wisconsin might crack one nice play here but that is likely about it.

    * Draw: FSU has given up an average of 6 yards per carry but that average could be a bit misleading because there have only been 4 attempts in the 2 games. The lack of attempts by both OSU and CU – both having big time backs – suggests that neither OSU nor CU thought such was likely to be a good play and thus the low amount of attempts (which gained –1, 0, 5 and 10 yards on the four attempts). Wisconsin has averaged 7.54 yards on 13 attempts on this play and it is by far their most productive running play. But of the 98 yards gained on this play, 69 came on one play. When that one play is excluded, the remaining 12 attempts only gained 29 yards (2.4 per carry). Again, not a play which has a high chance of being consistently successful for the Badgers.

    * Stop route: Wisconsin averaged 15.6 per play (4 attempts) while Fresno has given up 11.83 (6 attempts). What made this play work for Wisconsin in its first two games was that the defensive backs for Virginia and Oregon were so afraid of getting beat deep that they play 8-10 yards off the receivers at the line of scrimmage. FSU will play a tight man to man and not give Wisconsin any cushion at all. That may open up other routes for the Badgers, but this route will not be open all day.

    In the first two games, Fresno State had trouble with a few plays including a tight end release pattern (no attempts by Wisconsin in its first two games; and the Badgers only threw to the tight end once on any type of route in the first two games), the short slant (less than 10 yards, and the medium/deep slant (over 10 yards). On the short slant, Wisconsin was 2 for 2 but for only 20 yards. On the longer slants, Wisconsin was only 1 out of 3 for 15 yards while FSU gave up 1 completion in 2 tries (though 1 busted for a 65-yard touchdown). Because of FSU’s tight man to man coverage, Wisconsin has to execute the slant routes to have any chance for big passing plays. Whether the Badgers can do that remains to be seen.

    The comparison of the FSU offense and the Badger defense reveals several plays which should work for FSU while there are several other plays which will be critical to the outcome. On the positive side for FSU, they should be able to execute the following plays:

    * Draw: FSU has averaged 4.40 yards per play (14 attempts) while WU has given up 13.71 yards per play (7 attempts).

    * Reverse: Averaging 9.33 yards per play (9 attempts) while Badgers have given up 13.67 per play (on 3 attempts).

    * Stop: Averaging 8.33 yards per play (6 attempts) while WU giving up 9.7 yards per play (10 attempts). The Badger defense gave up the following which FSU might be able to exploit.

    * Screen pass to the running back: 22.33 yard average (3 attempts).

    * Skinny post: 16.67 average (3 attempts).

    * Tight end cross/streaks: FSU has a great tight end on these plays, which have averaged 15+ yards per catch. FSU threw to its tight end 12 times in the first 2 games and this will be critical in order to move the Badger linebackers off the line of scrimmage to open up the Fresno running attack.

    If you watched Fresno’s first two games, two things would have impressed you. First, QB David Carr is a big time player and will be worth a high draft choice (though his short passes could be a bit better). Second, Fresno’s defense is outstanding against the run and pass. Either you hit a big play against it or you punt.

    Another factor in FSU’s defensive dominance is FSU’s punter averages 5-10 yards more per punt which should gain at least 10 yards per return more than the Badgers will. Over the course of the game, these special teams’ advantages will add at least 100 yards for FSU. Moreover, putting Fresno on the Astroturf in Madison is comparable to taking a horse that has only run in the mud and putting it on a fast track.

    Oregon State has one of the fastest teams in the nation, but it did not appear that way against FSU. FSU is a speed team in all phases of the game but, because FSU played two other speed teams (OSU and Colorado), its speed advantage was hard to see. However, if you were to watch both teams’ films back to back, FSU’s speed is noticeable.

    One comparison point on this game is that OSU made Notre Dame look like a very slow team in last year’s Fiesta Bowl. If FSU is faster than OSU while the Irish are faster than Wisconsin, what does that say about this game? Pat Hill is a coach who obviously loves the big games against big name schools. Barry Alvarez is a coach who will always win the games he should win but not win the games against equal or better teams (much like Barry’s former roommate and close friend Frank Solich at Nebraska).

    The last word on this game is that Fresno is the better team and absent being -3 or worse in turnovers, FSU should win easily.

    Texas-North Carolina. Texas lived and died on 3 plays last week against New Mexico State including off tackle left, off tackle right, and the stop route – accounting for 37 attempts just from those 3 plays. Oklahoma only attempted 6 such plays against North Carolina in the opening game and NC stopped 5 of those 6 plays to 4 yards or less. OU threw for a high percentage (20 of 29) against NC but did not get a lot of yards off those completions. The play that has to work for Texas in this game is the stop pattern and NC did give up about 8.5 yards per stop pass against OU.

    While NC probably will not put a lot of points up this weekend against Texas, its defense and special teams have a reasonable chance of keeping this from being a blowout. If NC can be on the positive side of the turnovers, this could be a much closer game than some think.

    Ohio-West Virginia. This game might be called the battle of the opposites. The game will come down to Ohio’s ability to run its option plays against West Virginia’s short passing game. West Virginia gave up over 10 yards per option play to Boston College last week while Ohio gained about 9 yards per option against Akron. On the flip side, West Virginia had great success with its out and stop patterns which Ohio had a hard time with against Akron.

    This should be a close game but how each team will defend the other team is hard to tell in advance. So is whether this turns into a shootout or a low scoring contest. Neither punter is good but Ohio might have the better kick returners.

    Mike will give us his picks every week throughout the college season.

    One More Play. Here’s our play in a contest we are in. Rutgers +44½ at Miami. After routing Penn State (33-7), Hurricanes look ready to rumble in '01. But hapless Rutgers will stay within spread because Miami is looking ahead to big revenge matchup next week with visiting Washington, which was the only team to stop the 'Canes last year and derail their BCS express. Scarlet Knights lost LY at home to Miami 64-6, so lack of challenge does not indicate all-out 60-minute effort. Added Scarlet Knight edges:Top Miami receiver hurt vs. Nittany Lions is out this week, Rutgers new head coach Schiano was def coord at Miami LY, so embarrassment blowout not likely.

    Coming Soon. If all goes well, our new website should be up on Tuesday. It won’t be a “soft opening” like the Vegas hotels which open without having many amenities and facilities available. We should be about 90-95% finished.

    Please send questions, comments, etc., to [email protected].
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