Tweet
There was a movie in the 1970's about a bank robbery gone awry that starred Al Pacino and was called "Dog Day Afternoon."
That movie title aptly describes what's likely to happen next Sunday on the opening day of the NFL regular season.
The betting lines on NFL games are most out of whack the first week of the season because no one (especially the bookmakers) has a grip yet on how good the teams are or are not.
And let's get one thing straight---no NFL team stays at the same level from one year to the next.
Every team in the league, that's EVERY team, either is better or worse than it was last year.
No team stays the same.
And if you can figure out before everyone else who has improved and who has gotten worse, you can cash in!
The first week of the season, no one knows yet who's better and who's worse, and that's why the lines are usually very off.
So off, in fact, that many of the pointspreads will have the wrong team favored.
And you can take advantage of this.
That's why NFL Week No. 1 is also the easiest week in which to beat the spread.
The underdogs traditionally do incredibly well the opening NFL week, and so if you go with lot of dogs, you'll be barking with joy come Monday.
Dog Day Afternoon!
I don't proclaim to be a handicapping expert nor do I even consider myself a handicapper, but once in a while a situation comes up that is so strong it can't be ignored.
NFL Week No. 1 is such a situation.
These are my picks for the NFL's first Sunday, with expectations for lots of dogs to bark:
(Lines courtesy of Olympic Sports in Jamaica.)
Indianapolis -1 over New York Jets
Kansas City +3 over Oakland
Minnesota -9½ over Carolina
Detroit +5 over Green Bay
Cincinnati +1 over New England
Buffalo +1 over New Orleans
Seattle -4½ over Cleveland
Tampa Bay -9 over Dallas
Pittsburgh +3 over Jacksonville
Chicago +10½ over Baltimore
Philadelphia +3 over St. Louis
Atlanta +3½ over San Francisco
Washington +2½ over San Diego
Miami +6 over Tennessee
New York Giants +6½ over Denver
The best best of the week is the still-underrated Philadelphia Eagles to knock off the Rams outright.
Have you checked the Eagles record as a home underdog in recent years?
It's one of the best records of anyone in any situation in the league.
For the record, I'm going with 11 underdogs and just four favorites on Sunday.
After all, it's going to be a "Dog Day Afternoon."
That movie title aptly describes what's likely to happen next Sunday on the opening day of the NFL regular season.
The betting lines on NFL games are most out of whack the first week of the season because no one (especially the bookmakers) has a grip yet on how good the teams are or are not.
And let's get one thing straight---no NFL team stays at the same level from one year to the next.
Every team in the league, that's EVERY team, either is better or worse than it was last year.
No team stays the same.
And if you can figure out before everyone else who has improved and who has gotten worse, you can cash in!
The first week of the season, no one knows yet who's better and who's worse, and that's why the lines are usually very off.
So off, in fact, that many of the pointspreads will have the wrong team favored.
And you can take advantage of this.
That's why NFL Week No. 1 is also the easiest week in which to beat the spread.
The underdogs traditionally do incredibly well the opening NFL week, and so if you go with lot of dogs, you'll be barking with joy come Monday.
Dog Day Afternoon!
I don't proclaim to be a handicapping expert nor do I even consider myself a handicapper, but once in a while a situation comes up that is so strong it can't be ignored.
NFL Week No. 1 is such a situation.
These are my picks for the NFL's first Sunday, with expectations for lots of dogs to bark:
(Lines courtesy of Olympic Sports in Jamaica.)
Indianapolis -1 over New York Jets
Kansas City +3 over Oakland
Minnesota -9½ over Carolina
Detroit +5 over Green Bay
Cincinnati +1 over New England
Buffalo +1 over New Orleans
Seattle -4½ over Cleveland
Tampa Bay -9 over Dallas
Pittsburgh +3 over Jacksonville
Chicago +10½ over Baltimore
Philadelphia +3 over St. Louis
Atlanta +3½ over San Francisco
Washington +2½ over San Diego
Miami +6 over Tennessee
New York Giants +6½ over Denver
The best best of the week is the still-underrated Philadelphia Eagles to knock off the Rams outright.
Have you checked the Eagles record as a home underdog in recent years?
It's one of the best records of anyone in any situation in the league.
For the record, I'm going with 11 underdogs and just four favorites on Sunday.
After all, it's going to be a "Dog Day Afternoon."
Comment