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Columnist Jeff Haney: Mariners, Twins hit hard in baseball future books
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at 259-4041 or [email protected]
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As their lead in the AL West grows larger, the odds on the Mariners to win the World Series grow smaller.
Seattle -- eight games up in the division heading into today's action -- was as high as 35-1 in World Series future books earlier this year, and upwards of 20-1 to win the AL pennant.
Those juicy prices are now as distant a memory as Jose Baez.
At the Stardust hotel-casino, the M's have been bet down to 7-2 to win the Series and 9-5 to win the AL.
The Minnesota Twins -- the league's other major surprise this season -- have seen an even more astounding line move, going from 150-1 to 6-1 in the Stardust's World Series future book.
Stardust sports book director Joe Lupo confirms those dramatic odds adjustments are no illusion -- they were driven by bettors' cold, hard cash.
As a result, Lupo could find himself rooting hard against the M's and Twins this summer.
"We definitely have exposure on those two teams," Lupo said. "We have had a lot of money bet on them to win the pennant. In the World Series (future book), the liability is definitely there, but to a lesser extent. I think (bettors) are saying that even if these teams don't go on to win the World Series, they do have a good shot to win the pennant."
Not only have bettors pounded Seattle and Minnesota all season, Lupo reports, but they continue to do so, even at the reduced odds.
"I think it's partly a case of tourists who may be in town but weren't here a month ago," Lupo said. "They didn't have a chance to bet on these teams earlier, so they're going to do it now."
The Twins, hanging on to first place in the AL Central just ahead of a torrid Cleveland Indians team, are 3-1 shots to win the league at the Stardust.
While it may be too late for future bettors to shoot for a big score on Seattle, the Twins were still listed as high as 20-1 to win the World Series this week at Mirage properties, 15-1 at Harrah's, Mandalay Bay and the Rio.
"I think the Mariners are for real," Lupo said. "They're in a division where their pitching should keep them at or near the top throughout the season.
"I'd be surprised if the Twins stayed up there, though. I expect to see the Indians at the top of that division when it's all over."
Lupo said he'd probably make the Red Sox the favorites to win the AL playoffs once they get under way -- especially if a healthy Nomar Garciaparra returns to the lineup.
For the NL's version of an upstart team, look no further than the first-place Cubs, who have been bet from 100-1 to 15-1 in the Stardust's World Series future book.
Lupo said he has accepted more money on the Dodgers to win the World Series than on any other NL team, but the Cubs are No. 2 on the list -- and the Cubbie money came in at much higher odds.
"Cubs fans are so loyal, you can count on them to bet their team year in and year out in Las Vegas," Lupo said. "They're almost like Green Bay Packer fans in that respect.
"This year, obviously (the Cubs) are off to a real good start ... but it's a long summer."
TRINIDAD-JOPPY: At least early in the week, there was not enough variation in the Las Vegas lines on Saturday's William Joppy vs. Felix Trinidad fight for bettors to find a "middle" or a "freeroll."
Trinidad is about a 3-1 to 3 1/2-1 favorite in the bout, which will take place at Madison Square Garden and air on pay per view.
Trinidad backers should check out Park Place (Caesars, Flamingo, etc.) or Station properties, which list the favorite at minus 300. Trinidad is as high as minus 340 elsewhere.
Joppy supporters should visit Coast properties or the Mandalay Bay, where the underdog is plus 280.
Barring a really strange line move, it's not likely bettors will find value on either side at Harrah's, which is using a whopping 90-cent straddle on the fight (minus 320/plus 230). A more favorable 60-cent straddle is prevalent at other books around town.
The round proposition is the full distance of 12 rounds, with a premium on the "won't go." The cheapest "won't go 12" is being offered at Mirage properties (minus 140), while the biggest return on "will go 12" is at the Coasts and Mandalay Bay (plus 125).
An alternate line can be found at the Venetian, where the round prop is 11 full, minus 110 on the "will" and minus 120 on the "won't."
The Joppy-Trinidad bout will serve as the second semifinal in a popular mini-tournament designed to determine the world's No. 1 middleweight. Saturday's winner will advance to meet Bernard Hopkins, who defeated Keith Holmes in the other preliminary bout.
The middleweight series is being hailed by fans of the sweet science as an example of boxing doing something right, for once.
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