baseball total moves are a joke!!!!

[jacmar]

Has anyone been following the baseball total moves? I cannot believe how poorly they have been. For example, today the kc game, the balt game, and the det game all moved up. Needless to say, all went under. Last night the Atlanta game and the cardinal game dropped, and both flew over. Is there any significance to these moves, or are they just nonsense?

[lillihammer]

I've been following them all week. Last night I laid off the CWS game 'cause it opened 10,5u-115 and closed 10,5o-130. I wanted the over but not at lay -130. It totalled 8. Same thing with ARZ: opened 10u-120 and closed 10o-120. I wanted the over again but not for that price.

As for the significance of these moves so far this week the 'favourite' side and the 'dog' side of the totals are split. But my figures have a problem. Some books will have different totals for the same game and opposite 'favourites,' like 10u-115 and 9,5o-120 at the same time. So my formula so far is flawed.

Had I wagered ALL the 'dog' sides of the totals this week I would have been even.

I guess to answere your question, I don't have the data but I AM following them.

[jacmar]

I follow the totals as well. It used to be one of the solid ways to win. But from what I have seen so far this week, I feel like going opposite every move. Had I done so, I would have won 5 out of 6 days so far. In the past, you always got a run for your money following the total moves. Nowadays, it seems just the opposite. I really am considering waiting for the moves, and just playing the other side. Had I done so the last two days, I would have cleaned up. But that's playing results.

[jinxbebe]

Followers
will never become BIG winners

Best thing to do is handicap yourself

[Allwrong]

IMHO MLB totals is the one area of sport wagering most prone to ghost moves.

I am more of an observer of MLB cappers and capping consensus than a capper myself.
(I agree with jinx about capping, but I just don't have the time to do the job I would like capping MLB.)

I did OK last year fading what I suspected were ghost moves on totals last year after I clued in.

The games to look for are ones with a higher public interest than others on the card.
Look for big moves on the line in a short period of time.
I just don't think the public hammers the total lines in one diirection that hard generally, at least not until they see big moves.
If there are no changes in the "factors" you have capped for a game total and the lines start moving big time it means either the book made a big mistake and the public has caught it, or (more likely) the book would like you to think that's what happened.
I'm of the school of thought that generally the book is smarter than me.

Fading the move and the large consensus that follows the move is worth investigation.

I should note here that fading the move doesn't always mean taking the dog. Sometimes the reduced fav is the play.

[jacmar]

Well, another over bites the dust today. The Cleve-Balt game opened at 10 1/2. By the time the game went off, it was up to 11 1/2. And as usual, there was never any doubt...final of 4-3. Well, it's time to play against these moves. From here on in, if I see any total move a 1/2 run or more, I will play the other side. Had I done this all week, I would have won 85% of the moves. I am not playing results, but just stating the facts.

[reno]

Hell, what are these originators trying to do, ruin my scalping career? These guys need to do a better job generating some "steam."
What good are they if can't move the lines enough to create earning opportunites?

[lillihammer]

jacmar,

both of my books DON'T move the the total number, they freeze it and move the -110 money line. May I ask "What book do you follow that moves the total number?"

My books do this...stl/COL 13u-125, 13o+105.
They don't do...open 13 and move to 11,5.

thanks

[jacmar]

I am refering to the books on the Don Best screen. For example, at Cris, the Cardinal game opened at 9 1/2. By gametime, it moved to 10 over. So that's another over move that lost. I wish I had the guts to play against all of these moves.

[lillihammer]

jacmar,

that's DonBest's free screen?

[sportshobby]

jacmar, I'd be a bit careful - that's like jumping into a stock market move. Just as sure as you do, a different group will be moving the baseball totals and you won't know the difference. You might then be fading a good winning streak.

[jacmar]

Youre right...But I remember not too long ago that when these totals would move even a half a run, more times than not they would hold up. Now, it seems just the opposite. Any total that moves these days does not hold up. Look at the cardinal game yesterday. Opened at 9 1/2. Went to 10 over. And it was never in doubt. 3 to 2 final. If you check over the first week, you'll see pretty much the same results as I just said. I wish I knew what the explanation is?

[lillihammer]

jacmar,

i keep hearing that sportsbooks are gambling a bit too. that they don't always move their lines when money comes in lopsided and are willing to play the public using traps. you may be watching a simple losing streak, or the books may have enough people chasing moves now that they can move a line on 'air' and draw many bettors to the 'unlikely' side of the line and cash in on more than just the juice. i think of trying to second guess the sportsbooks like trying to second guess a money hustling stripper--she'll get you to stop guessing as soon as you do what she wants ( lucky me, i think i left most of THEM guessing. it didn't pay me to do so, but it didn't cost me a cent either. )
i'll say again, i'm new at this, but i would think that if you had a winning formulae when the season started don't let a rash of bad numbers throw you off.

[jacmar]

I have been following the total moves for many years now. Sometimes its a bit streakly, like anything else. But as I have shown you, the moves on totals so far have been atrocious. I am really thinking of playing against all the moves. I just feel that as soon as I do that, they will start a new and prolonged winning streak. I want to stick with them, but losing day after day may make me do otherwise.

[sportshobby]

Jacmar, here's me advice: wait for the trend to reverse, then play on the moves. Especially if you can get down near the original number.

The unlucky or unskilled players who had all these bad moves the first week or so of the baseball season may not be the same as those who dominate the moves this week or later.