baseball total moves are a joke!!!!

[jacmar]

Yes Sportshobby, I would agree with you. Only when do we know when to start to play the total moves? Do we wait until we see them start to win, or just continue to play them small, and start increasing as they start doing better?

[lillihammer]

jacmar,

6 days of my records show that the way i'm monitoring MLB totals the 'dog' side of the total has a record of 38-27 at -105 to +110. I show only one losing day, the 7th, where the dogs lost, 4-8, and 5 days where they were anywhere from 6-5 up to 9-4.

i'm going to dig in one of my sportsbetting archives and try to get numbers for all 105 MLB regular season games and see what i come up with.

[lillihammer]

jacmar,

my quick run over this phenomenon has produced the following results for 04 02 thru 04 10...

'dog' side of total 52 wins
'fav' side of total 38 wins
all other totals 20

the 'dog' side of the total varied from -105 to + 130 and averaged maybe +105

10-12 games had no clear fav/dog side

this is a 58% win rate for the 'dog' side of the total. you say you've had long term success with the favourite side. how well did they preform for you before this season?

[jacmar]

I am not sure what you mean by the dog side of a total or a favorite side of a total. I look to play the totals that move either up or down substantially. For instance, the Atlanta-Florida game on friday opened at 8 under. By the time the game went off, the total was at 7 1/2 under. To me, that is a strong move on under. How would you rate that under move? Would that be a dog side or a favorite side?

[lillihammer]

jacmar,

trying to speak the same language...

atl/FLA open 8,0 -110 close 7,5 -110
open 8,0o-110/u-110 close 8,0o+105/u-125

i beleive the two above lines BOTH say the same thing. when i say 'dog' side of the total in this case i mean the over, as money is coming in on the under, forcing the line move in your example and the change in the 11-10 line in my example. the 'dog' side of the total ( i made the expression up, if you have a more common term please let me know what it is ) would be the OPPOSITE of the line move.

[jacmar]

Yes, I see what you mean. My point is that the sides that move usually hold up a lot better than they have showed so far. Today's Cardinal game opened at 9 under and closed at 8 1/2 under. Some places will go to 9 under 40 or 9 under 50 instead of going off the number 9 to 8 1/2. But either way, the under is the move. Now, whether it holds up or not is another story.

[lillihammer]

jacmar,

my indicators for the STL total were were crossed. it opened with my book at 9u-115 and closed 9u-130. CRIS had it 9u-145. i put no money on it because i was leaning to the under but not for -130.

i think it'll go under but i play these like a 'virgin' everytime---i won't put out till EVERYTHING is right!

[jacmar]

This game in past seasons would be a solid under. 2-0 after 6 innings. But as usual this year, the move doesn't hold up. It's just hard to believe how many move games have lost in the last 12 days. I am starting to believe that the total moves mean nothing. It never used to be this way, but it is this way now.

[jacmar]

And speaking of total moves not coming in, how about the dodger game last night. The total opened at 9 1/2 over. This was a double move. It went to 10 flat in the afternoon, and then jumped to 10 1/2 over by gametime. A sure over, right?....... WRONG...final score was 5-4. Has anyone kept track of these total moves since the first game? Oh yes, do we remember the first game? Texas Toronto opening at 11 1/2 and closing at 14 over. Final score...8-1. So when are we going to start playing against these ridiculous moves? I hope to starting today....

[lillihammer]

jacmar,

at this point i think i'm all totalled out. after ten days of it i'm 4 - 2. yes, wonderful to be 4 - 2, but this means after considering conditions for over 100 MLB games i'm only comfortable wagering on less than 6% ( and i would have laid off one of these games had i properly checked the weather forecast ).

the only thing i can think of that would support your move is that if a game opens 10 and closes at 11 taking 11u gives you a slight edge--it's one more run someone has to bat.

as for watching it happen, i thought both the STL and MIL games were going under yesterday just like the line move predicted. they both went over, STL at +125 and MIL at +110.

[jacmar]

I have never seen so many big moves in totals lose. In the first 12 days of baseball, I would have to say that there have been at least 15 games that would be considered as big moves which lost. Today the cubs opened at 10 1/2 and closed at 9 1/2. I am just waiting to see the game go over. It's to the point that I expect it to.

[lillihammer]

you asked about keeping track of total moves. i don't keep complete track of them all but at donbest.com go to 'archives,' select 'lines' and a small calander should pop up. from the calander click on the day you want and a record of every game's opening line and it's closing at 15 or so books will come up. the opening line is on the left, the final score on the right.

so the answere is 'donbest keeps track.'

[jacmar]

I can't believe the Cub under held up. This is the first legitimate total move that i can remember winning. Maybe they will start a good trend. Let's see if any others come in tonight.

[Unregistered]

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