Linesmaker Vs. Players (Long-term Vs. Short-term)

[reno]

It is my contention that the linesmaker tends to rely more on long-term (or seasonal) performance than on recent trends when he sets his lines. On the other hand, players, in general, seem more geared toward the short-term and are usually looking to bet on hot teams.

Just out of curiosity, it would be interesting to hear from Bettorsworld members to see how many base their handicapping more on short term results and how many place greater emphasis on long-term performance. Also, it would be educational to hear from handicappers to see why they favor one approach over the other.

[Chilly]

interesting. I use model with moving averages to bet, and these are largely short term, but when I subjectively cap games, I look at long term performance to see when lines fail to reflect that.

My guess is "sharp" players still use short term, but go the other way, against the public hot teams, which seem to good to be true because the oddsmakers use longer-term performance in setting the lines.

Chilly

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I have an approach that essentially uses YTD #s.

I'm basically relying on the Law of Large #s. My contention is that larger data samples hold more credibility. Tough to determine if a hot 3-gm stretch for a pitcher is a true improvement or merely a random blip on the radar screen.

GL, all.

[Ronbets]

Reno,

I'll take my top 3 handicappers. If 2 of 3 hit on the same game it's a 1 star. If all three agree= 3 star. Oh yeah, my prognosticaters? Professor Ed Horowitz, Kevin Duffy and JR Miller. Gotta go, Robin Leach and crew are at the door..........

[This message has been edited by Ronbets (edited 04-01-2001).]