Baseball Handicapping - Umpires Pitchers

[REALITY]

SOME FRIENDS OF MINE WITH BIG COMPUTER BACKGROUNDS AND MINIMAL HANDICAPPING SKILLS HAVE ASKED ME WHAT THE FIVE BIGGEST HANDICAPPING FACTORS ARE IN HANDICAPPING BASEBALL.

THEY ASKED ME TO LIST THE FIVE IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE AND ASKED ME TO ASSIGN A % VALUE AS TO HOW IMPORTANT % WISE EACH FACTOR IS TO THE HANDICAPPING FORMULA.

EXAMPLENOT WHAT I ACTAULLY BELIEVE)

STARTING PITCHING 70%

BULLPEN L10 DAYS 10%

BULLPEN OVERALL 5%

L/R VS.STARTERS 5%

LINEUPS VS.STARTER 10%

TOTAL 100%

I'VE READ SOME EXCELLENT HANDICAPPING POSTS IN THE PAST HERE IN B.W.SO I KNOW THERE ARE SOME GREAT HANDICAPPERS OUT THERE.

ANY INPUT WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

I EXPECT MY DEAR FRIEND RENO TO BE FIRST UP TO THE PLATE.

ALL OUR SMALL DIFFERENCES ASIDE FROM READING PROFESSOR RENO'S POSTS ON BASEBALL ,I BELIEVE THIS IS HIS STRONG SUIT...

THANKS IN ADVANCE FOR YOUR HELP.

REALITY



[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 01-30-2001).]

[Ronbets]

Let's start with these #s and fine tune from here:

STARTING PITCHING= 45% with exception Pedro, Randy, and any other hurler having career year.

TEAM OVERALL RATING= 25%

BULLPEN= 15% availability et al.

TEAM TREND=10% Streaking either way. L/R etc.

INTANGIBLES= 5%

Reality, heading west for vacation. Thanks.

[sportshobby]

Oh, this one really interests me - educate the oddsmakers - NOT.

[reno]

Reality, I know the ANSWER to your questions. I know EXACTLY how much every key factor in baseball is worth. I know exactly how many cents a run is worth in each league. I know exactly how many cents the home field is worth in each league. I know exactly how to make a predicta-score for a game and how to convert it to a moneyline. I hope to find the time to make, what I believe is, an accurate mathematical line on each game (Note: If I find the time, I'll begin making lines probably 30 games into the season.) If I make lines, I plan on providing them for a Don Best book. Also, I'll bet my own picks and have Bettorsworld monitor my selections. If I prove able to pick winners, I'll sell my selections.

I'm not giving anything away. I've spent thousands of hours doing research. In fact, I just updated my research on NBA and college middling. I know exactly how much every point is worth and how profitable (or unprofitable) every 1.0 point, 1.5 point, and 2.0 point middle attempt at every line has been over the past three seasons.

Because you have emphatically stated in the forums that I am NOT a wiseguy and that I am a mere pseudo-intellectual, I have zero incentive to provide you with any answers or to educate you about anything pertaining to sportsbetting.

[REALITY]

RENO,

I THOUGHT WE HAD REACHED SOME KIND OF TRUCE OR AT LEAST SOME MUTUAL RESPECT FOR EACH OTHER,OBVIOUSLY I WAS WRONG.

WHEN JEFF FROM B.W.CALLED AND TOLD ME YOU WERE IN A PANIC ABOUT A COMPANY WHOSE COMMUNICATIONS WERE DOWN AND YOU THOUGHT THEY WERE AT THE AIRPORT I GOT OUT OF BED AND GOT DRESSED AND WENT OVER TO THE OFFICE IN QUESTION ON YOUR BEHALF.

I KNOW JEFF IS COMING OUT YOUR WAY AND YOU MIGHT BE GETTING TOGETHER WITH HIM.

WHY DON'T YOU ASK HIM ABOUT MY PROFESSIONAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS IN THIS BUSINESS.

I'M SURE HE WILL TELL YOU ENOUGH ABOUT REALITY THE PERSON.

I HAVE PAID YOU SOME RESPECT ON MORE THAN ONE OCASSION, AS WELL AS IN THIS THREAD.

REST ASSURED YOU WILL NEVER SEE A REQUEST OR A REFERENCE TO YOU AGAIN IN ANY OF MY POSTS UNLESS YOU ARE BORED AND INVOKE REALITY'S NAME IN A LESS THAN FLATTERING WAY.

REALITY

P.S.

RONBETS,

THANKS.

YOU HAVE AN OPEN INVITATION ANYTIME.

REALITY

[Hartley]

Another factor to consider that is often overlooked is the home plate umpire. There is no question that some umpires are pitchers umpires and other are hitters umpires. Plus some umpires like to call the low strike and others prefer the high strike.

This is obviously important for 2 reasons.

1) If an umpire has a very liberal strike zone the games are generally lower scoring.

2) If an umpire calls the low strikes and not the high strikes, this will hurt teams whose pitchers have a tendency to keep the ball a little higher in the strike zone and it will hurt batters who like to swing at the lower pitches.

Someone in this forum used to analyze umpires and it was amazing the discrepency between a hitters umpire and a pitchers umpire.

[REALITY]

Originally posted by sportshobby:
Oh, this one really interests me - educate the oddsmakers - NOT.

THIS IS JUST ANOTHER SET OF COMPUTER GEEKS WHO WANT TO SIT DOWN,DEVISE A FORMULA AND TEST IT ON THE LAST 3 SEASONS FOR FUN.

THIS HAS NOTHING TO WITH EDUCATING B.M.'S LEAST OF ALL MYSELF.

I DO MY BASEBALL HANDICAPPING EVERY DAY AS A B.M.

IT TAKES ME 1 HOUR.

WHEN I'M DONE I JUST TAKE A LOOK AT THE HOUSES I RESPECT AND COME UP WITH A LINE THAT REFELECTS MY NUMBER.

IT MUST BE PRETTY GOOD BECAUSE WHERE I WORKED I DEALT A DIME LINE AND HELD 6% FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE SEASONS.

THAT'S RIGHT 6%.

JEFF FROM B.W.CAN ATTEST TO THAT FACT.

THE DEVIL FROM ACROSS THE STREET CAN ATTEST TO THAT FACT.

SPIRO FROM OLYMPIC CAN ATTEST TO THAT FACT.

SO REST ASSURED I WAS NOT "BEARDING",FOR MYSELF WHEN I ASKED FOR SOME OPINIONS IN THIS FORUM.

REALITY

[REALITY]

HARTLEY,

THE UMPIRES CHART IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER WHEN HANDICAPPING TOTALS.

REALITY

[reno]

Reality, at this point I have no problem with you and actually consider you to be an entertaining addition to the posting forums.
You are obviously a high-integrity guy who is extremely loyal to your friends. And I respect you for that.

However, based on various inaccurate and derogatory statements you have made about me and my sportsbetting style and acumen, why would I want to provide you with any specific handicapping information?

[REALITY]

FOR THE SAME REASONS I PUT ASIDE YOUR LESS THAN FLATTERING REMARKS ABOUT ME.

I THOUGHT WE WERE BEYOND THAT I WAS OBVIOUSLY WRONG.

REALITY

[REALITY]

RENO,

THIS IS RESPECT:

"ALL OUR SMALL DIFFERENCES ASIDE FROM READING PROFESSOR RENO'S POSTS ON BASEBALL ,I BELIEVE THIS IS HIS STRONG SUIT..."

THIS IS DISRESPECT:

"Reality, at this point I have no problem with you and actually consider you to be an entertaining addition to the posting forums."

I'M ENTERTAINING?

NOT KNOWLEDGABLE?

NOT INFORMATIVE?

ENTERTAINING.

WELL HAVE SOME REAL ENTERTAINMENT IF YOU CAN STAND THE REALITY OF THE SITUATION.

GO OUT WITH JEFF,HAVE A FEW DRINKS,AND THEN ASK HIM,OFF THE RECORD IS REALITY THE REAL DEAL OR REALLY FULL OF S-H-I-T AND SEE WHAT HE TELLS YOU.

THAT'S ENTERTAINMENT!

REALITY

[Ronbets]

We're talking generics here. The man(Reality) is trying to stimulate discussion. Baseball has very few secrets left. It's like that frog in biology class. Maybe some of you guys are trying to flatter yourselves.

That "Serious Middling ?" post was something else though. The poster "Bigdan" wanted you to attend his classes and guarantee the final exam w/o opinions. That's a different story folks.


Hartley, during BB season I gladly will email you my list of O/U Umpires.

[AussieVamp2]

the cube root of a double exponentially smoothed time series of the last 20 games average runs for, that a possibility?

[Ace Rothstein]

You know you two ( reno and reality) sound like two girls fighting and arguing. One is saying. Look at me im so smart, i can handicap baseball games. My a** you can! Reality, you are probably down so much in your life in gambling, its not funny. You sound so insecure with your life. No one but no one should ever say I'm winning just ask Jeff, you'll see. Just right there i could tell you're not a winner in gambling, lifetime, because if you were you would not brag like that. And why would reno want to give away his secret if he really does well for himself. He's not stupid. Telling other people his work, could jeopardize himself in the long run. So reality, GET A LIFE!

[REALITY]

ASS ROTHSTEIN,

I'M A B.M.,ONE OF THE BETTER ONES AND IN TERMS OF WIN% AND NET WIN ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL.

I DIDN'T ASK RENO FOR THE COLONELS SECRET RECIPE OF 11 HERBS AND SPICES,I JUST ASKED IN HIS OPINION WHAT ARE THE FIVE MOST IMPORTANT CATEGORIES IN BASEBALL HANDICAPPING .

IF THAT INFORMATION IS ENOUGH FOR SOMEONE TO KNOCK THE POKER PLAYERS OFF THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN,THEN PLEASE ACCEPT MY SINCEREST APOLOGY FOR THE ATTEMPTED SECURITY BREACH.

SPEAKING OF SECURITY BREACH ,WHAT GUTLESS WONDER ARE YOU TOO SCARED TO POST UNDER YOUR MORE WELL KNOWN POSTING NAME HERE AT BW?

YOU JUST DECIDED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT TO JUST SIGN UP AND BECOME A MEMBER OF THE REALITY FAN CLUB.

OH YEAH...

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Date Registered: 01-31-2001
Status: Junior Member
Total Posts: 1
Current Email: Not available.
Homepage: http://
Occupation: gambler
Location: canada
Interests: gambling


NEXT!

REALITY