OPINIONS PLEASE...

[REALITY]

UDOG 7 FINDS IT HARD TO BELIEVE SCORING IN THE FINAL 2 MINUTES OF A HALF IS SUCH A BIG FAVORITE.

THERE ARE MANY LOGICAL REASONS WHY, AS POSTED BY THE KNOWLEDGEABLE POSTERS IN THIS FORUM.

THEY ALL SEEM TO MAKE SENSE.

WHAT I CAN'T FIGURE OUT FOR THE LIFE OF ME IS HOW THREE CONSECUTIVE SCORES NOT NECESSARILY ON CONSECUTIVE POSSESSIONS IS SUCH A FAVORITE IN COLLEGE AND PRO FOOTBALL.

ALL OPINIONS WELCOMED.

A PROFESSIONAL OPINION SINCERELY WELCOMED.

REALITY

[Frank]

I think that it has been a bigger favorite in the Super Bowl due to the many years in a row there were blowouts. When one team started to **** out the other, they would just start to pour it on. They don't have to save themselves for next week. They can and should use every play in the book to score as much as they can. In the 1990's, almost every game was a blowout. If the game is going to be close, I think NO would be a good bet.

[Shawnee]

I think the key here is three consecutive scores by EITHER team. Thus you are deriving two separate probablilies and adding them together.

Perhaps we can get one of our math experts to elaborate.

[MonsterNco]

Its 22-3 this year on Monday Night Football and the Playoffs.

Almost like Pedro in the Winter.

[REALITY]

22-3!

THAT'S A PRETTY GOOD REASON IT'S SUCH A FAVORITE.

IF YOU STOP AND THINK ABOUT IT,WOULDN'T YOU THINK IT IS HARDER FOR A TEAM TO HAVE 3 UNANSWERED SCORES THAN NOT?

REALITY

[Hamhog]

Reality,

The team that scores first just needs two more scores. If they don't get the second score, the other team needs just two more.

A rough mathematical way to calculate:

Take a game with a total of 37. You can probably expect 7 scores in that game, 4 TD's and 3 FG's. This is not exact just a base assumption.

If both teams are 50/50 to get each score:

Team A scores Odds
1-3 in a row =.5^3 = .125
2-4, not 1 =.5^3*.5 = .0625
3-5, not 2 = .0625
4-6, not 3 = .0625
5-7, x4,x1-3 = .5^3*.5* (1-.5^3) = .055

Total = .3675
Total x 2 teams = .735

There are a few flaws in the model (one of them may be my math/reasoning). After Team A scores, the other team has a better chance than team A to get the 2nd score. Very few teams possess an even chance to score as well.

.735/.265 = 2.77 there a probably a few reasons that the 2.77 gets down graded. Late in a game, a team with a lead is not trying to score but milk the clock, where the other team is going all out for the score, etc.

Anyways, that is my hack at the problem.

[This message has been edited by Hamhog (edited 01-08-2001).]

[REALITY]

HAMHOG,

I'M IMPRESSED JUST LOOKING AT YOUR FORMULA.

THANKS FOR THE INPUT.

REALITY

[Underdog7]

REALITY - I tried playing around with that bet since football season started. I had an eye on NO because of it's huge return. I only had interest on all the odds between PK to -3 hoping that there will be an exchange of scores, it will be a close game and blowouts are less expected. Bottom line, NO is a BAD INVESTMENT. Why? Don't have any idea at all. Your guess is good as mine.

[REALITY]

UDOG 7,

I HAVE ASKED SOME OF THE MOST EXPERIENCED GUYS IN THE BUSINESS THIS QUESTION AND THE MAJORITY OF THEM SAY NO JUST LIKE YOU AND JUST LIKE ME.

MAYBE SCOTTY S. CAN GIVE US A PROFESSIONAL OPINION .

ON THE SURFACE IT LOOKS LIKE SUCH AN EASY BET...

REALITY

[DrunkenGoon]

I played the NO in the Ten - Bal game and lost. Of course Baltimore was down 10-7 and scored the last 3 times in the game via FG, FG return for TD and INT return for TD.

I had the right bet all along in this low scoring game but I still didn't cash in.

May all your bets be winners

[Dingle]

Reality,

Can I have your e-mail.

Dingle

[deepsouth]

Hamhog,

I think you're overestimating a bit. That is, you are double-counting instances of AAABBB* or AAA*BBB, when both teams score three times.

I get

A or B scores 1-3 = 0.5^2 = 0.25
scores 2-4, not 1 = 0.5^3 = 0.125
scores 3-5, not 2 = 0.5^3 = 0.125
scores 4-6, not 3 also other team not 1-3 = (1 - 0.25) * 0.125 = 0.09375
scores 5-7, not 4, not 1-3, also other team not 1-3 or 2-4 = (1 - 0.25 - 0.125) * 0.125 = 0.078125

Grand total = 0.671875

As you point out, the fact that the team who scored has to kick the ball away makes the real-life probability greater than this. However, this is somewhat though probably not completely balanced by the fact that the teams are usually not of exactly equal strength.

But all in all, my conclusion is the same as yours; it isn't surprising that 3 consecutive scores should happen more than it does not, it's what we should expect.

[wolfman]

i used to play the "no" on this prop, thinking i had the better of it. but it always seemed to lose.

i think the reason the "no" looks so good is that the nfl preaches about parity and "any given sunday". when in reality, there are a lot of good teams and a lot of bad teams, not as much parity as the nfl would like us to believe.

or it could just be the mighty "mo" going all one teams direction.