JR year end wrapup

[wintermute]

Well I've tracked JR for a year.

In 2000 he lost 50.62 units. I don't know the exact number of plays but he had 972 picks in the last 6 months of the year. I thought he would do better because I think he has made money in the past.

Assuming he had about the same number of plays in the first 6 months of the year as he did at the end then he's losing at the rate of 2.5 percent for his clients. With shopping around his clients might break even.

This is considerably off his claimed + 5 percent. I'm not belittling JR - I think it's probably next to impossible to handicap 2000 games a year and win. He has started to post his results on a month by month basis which given his horrendous performance the last few months of the year shows lots of guts. Are there any Bettorsworld posters that handicap this many games who came claim a decent win percentage? And I mean handicappers - not scalpers and middlers.

Anyway, JR. Better luck in 2001, the start of the REAL 3rd millenium.

wintermute

[Frank]

Personally, I try to average about 10 plays per week. Sometimes more, sometimes less. That's with all sports combined and not including scalping/middling. I don't think anyone can consistently win yearly with almost 2000 plays a year.

[Walt]

JRs philosiphy is that professional gamblers will bet on any number of games that they feel have a 55 percent or better chance of winning. It could be a ton of games in one day if the situations arise. Lets track him for at least a three year period to get a feel for it.

[Ronbets]

I agree with the philosophy of playing any game that I perceive to have an edge with. Whether it's one game or 30 games, I have enough confidence to pull the trigger.

Walt, as far as tracking JR for 3 years? We all have a life to live That's more time than Lt. Gerard had tracking Dr. Richard Kimball.

'Mute, nice to see you've come out of hibernation. We Yanks blame you guys for any weather below 50. Nice to know you haven't frozen

[Walt]

Who said I have a life. This is how JR rang in the new year.

http://download.consumptionjunction....ia/cj_1434.mpg


[This message has been edited by Walt (edited 01-01-2001).]

[Frank]

I agree that if I can find 30 games where I have an edge that i should bet all of them. Who in the world can find 2000 games in a year in only the 4 major US sports. Only someone who is selling their plays will have this many games. I don't see too many professionals who bet this many games.

[AussieVamp2]

Originally posted by Frank:
I agree that if I can find 30 games where I have an edge that i should bet all of them. Who in the world can find 2000 games in a year in only the 4 major US sports. Only someone who is selling their plays will have this many games. I don't see too many professionals who bet this many games.

Well, no need to limit yourself to US sports.

However, if you have a couple of thousand college basketball games, a few hundred college football games, three hundred NFL games, 1300 NHL games, 1300 NBA games, and 2500 MLB games. That is what, 8000 games give or take a few hundred here or thre.

This is not counting totals of course, which would make it 12000 possibilities.

2000 = 1/6th of that.

Add in 15000 soccer games, hundreds of tennis matches, motor racing, AFL, NRL, etc., etc. Pretty easy to get 2000 games.

[AussieVamp2]

winning percentage hard to say, too, 'mute

going to be low if you are backing soccer underdogs at 9.00 included in your selections......

found 800 odd hockey selections last year in the various leagues ..........

[AussieVamp2]

Of course, I am at the complete opposite end to the professional, but I find it hard to believe a professional can do that badly in a year?

A couple of thousand selections and losing doesn't say much for the skill there - pretty decent sample.

[AussieVamp2]

anyway, 2000 games is 5-6 a day for the pro type, not that many.........

[reno]

AussieVamp, a "professional" cannot afford to do that badly, or else he would end up broke--unless, of course, he was slick enough
to con others into paying him money for his high-quantity, low-quality picks.

As far as I'm concerned, if a guy is below 50% on 2,000 + plays, it's time for him to find another line of work. Maybe J.R. can become an agent for Pamela Anderson or open a chain of nightclubs with a sportsbetting motif. If he goes the nightclub route, how about Vigorish Hollywood as the name?

[AussieVamp2]

Exactly, not many people at all can afford to do that badly, unless, as you say they have some other deal going

[PerpetualCzech]

If the games JR was releasing were actually 55% games then the chances he would have a losing record (below 50% that is, not even counting juice) after 2000 selections would be about 0.0005%, or about 1 in two hundred thousand.

Even if the games were rated as 52% games (not even enough to overcome juice!) then the chances are still less than 4% he would have a losing record after 2000 games. How can this leave any doubt about the legitimacy of his service??

[AussieVamp2]

It can't, unless you believe in really really bad luck.

To subscribe, you would hope Pamela Anderson was associated with him

[Bookiebar]

J.R. Millers 2000 season record makes for some interesting reading... (W-L-P record includes some parlays and ML winners so the units won is more a reflection on his "ability")

NFL 2000
111-137-9 44.4% Units -23.94

NBA 2000
76-91-1 45.5% Units -13.96

NHL 2000
72-103-5 41.1% Units -22.8

Take into account he won 30.5 units in NBA in 1999, 26.7 Units in NFL 1999 and 5.2 Units in the MLB 1999, you are so far after 2 YEARS of his picks up 1.7 units, and he still has not posted up his NHL record from last year, and my guess is that it aint pretty judging by the fact that to win in all four sports in one year is damn near imposible (for him) + his NHL record for 2000 is making the offshores smile!

Hows that for and I quote "We expect to gain between 40 and 120 betting units per 1,000 picks (BUT NOT EVERY 1,000 PICKS!) and we expect upwards of 2,100 picks per year - a 54%-58% winning percentage against 11-10 bets with a like return on investment against money lines."

Over 4000 picks for TWO SEASONS OF PICKS and you have 1.7 units in your back pocket minus the $1798 fee for 2 years! You need to do some pretty serious shopping lines to improve that record

He has however (if it makes any differance) lost most of this in the last 3 months, since 1st November 2000 he has over 66 units... ouch!