ELECTIONS 2004 Yes you're reading it right

[chestrockwells]

When I saw this, I figured I had to post it. For all of you who didn't take my adamant advice on the elections that seemed never to end.........here's your chance to get a head start on 2004. VC has Bush at +150 to win the 04 elections.
PS. I'm not recommending this....yet, or maybe ever. It's just "too close to call" LOL

[Fedya Fussball]

What are the odds for Hilarious Rodney Klingon???

I'm sure there'll be a big push from behind to get her to the front...

mhehehehehehe

[Chilly]

I have no idea on earth why I'm doing this....

Chester,

I think you overstate your predictive abilities on the bush victory. Of course, you won your bet, and I lost on Gore +200. In the end, its the outcome, not how they covered, right?

True enough, but regarding our pre-election discussion, I think I hit the nail on the head except for a few votes in florida. I'm not saying I got it right, but my analysis was pretty close to the mark, and my main point was that Gore at +140 was WAY off the true odds of him winning. That much seems to be correct, and that was my contribution to the discussion, to point out that the true odds were really around Bush -115. I missed a few states, but not many, as I called PA and MI as Gore's, and said the only thing left he needed with those two was fla, and I thought he'd win it (and, honestly, he probably did have the support of a majority of the voters based on how they thought they voted). I also told you gore would eliminate the gap in the polling, which you basically called me a loon for doing--in fact, he did better than I thought as I thought he'd wind up about 1% behind, and he actually won the popular vote.

So, congrats on your winnings, all I got was chad pie.

Chilly

[Frank]

Victor Chandler has to love if anyone is willing to place a bet on this. By time 2004 rolls around, they will have made enough interest on your money to have no risk whatsoever.

[deepsouth]

Sports Interaction has 5/2 on Bush, last time I checked. Gore was 9/2, Hillary Clinton was 10/1.

Bush is guaranteed to be the Republican nominee in 2004, or at least close to guaranteed. Realistically, it's not possible to make bold predictions far into the future, so the chances of the Republicans winning in 2004 can't be very much more than or less than fifty percent at this point.

So ... it seems like 3/2 might be a good bet, and 5/2 seems great. But factoring in the hassle of tying up your money for four years with no interest, I still don't think it's worth it.

[chestrockwells]

Chilly, I understand what you're saying and you were right about some of the things you said. However, you came into that discussion fairly late and fairly strong. I had actually made most of my Bush plays in April/May, and I came out here at that point with those issues. If I were to average all my plays on Bush out, it would come out to Bush +135. I could easily contend that THAT number was way off also. But who cares at this point. Who cares how many times the ball bounced off the rim before it went in? I just posted this 04 thing cause I thought it was funny. Note that I didn't try do tap dance over anyones loses when it was all over, and I'm not doing it now. If I came off as being dismissive about the topic, so be it. Would have, could have, should have mean nothing. Somebody wins, somebody loses.

[Frank]

Both of your bets were at good value IMHO. Taking either side at a plus was definately good value now that the results are in. I can't say that either one of you were on the WRONG side.

[Cons]

Four years is a long time to tie up your money. I would wait at least two years before taking a bet on this.

My outlook on 2004 is that it will be a landslide victory for the Republicans. Bush will go for the presidency once again and alongside him will be none other than Colin Powell. Hence, the next election won't even be worth counting...

[Railbird]

With the Demographics of the nation,the Democrats win the next few elections.

[Cons]

Can't see it happening that way, but everything is possible.

I still think the next one will be a landslide, so the democrats won't even be able to stage a vote-rigging recount. If Bush plays his cards right, he's got the next one in his pocket.

One thing is certain: if Colin Powell decides to run alongside Bush as vice-president, the election will be decided months in advance.

[Jeff K]

CW... Let's face it, you and all the other Bush bettors got lucky, BIG TIME. If it wasn't for the Butterfly ballot, Gore would have won Florida by several thousand votes. I've always said, I'd rather be lucky than good.

Cons... If the Dem's were rigging the recount, how come they didn't come up with enough votes to overcome Bush's lead? In reality, the election was STOLEN by the THREE STOOGES on the US Supreme Court. The ironic thing is if the recount was allowed to continue, Bush would have probably held on to his lead. The Miami Herald projected that Bush would have picked up 60 to 150 votes.

P.S. Bush has no chance in the next election, because all the Dem's will go out to vote against him. I may even vote for the first time in 20 years.

[MadameX]

Con, I have a question concerning your remark: "One thing is certain: if Colin Powell decides to run alongside Bush as vice-president, the election will be decided months in advance."

Do you think that will be a winning ticket because Powell will drawn enough of the black vote away from the democrat party to elicit a victory? It was fairly common knowledge during this election, that Bush was going to select Powell for Secretary of State, however, that did nothing to attract the black voters - in fact, fewer blacks voted republican in this cycle than the last one! I hope you're correct and I find the prospect of a Bush/Powell ticket quite attractive.

I also agree that waiting a couple of years to place a bet on 2004 makes a lot of sense.

[chestrockwells]

Spin it any which way you want. Frankly I'm pretty tired of all the election yada yada. And I do agree that now is certainly not the time to bet on 2004. A lot can happen between now and then. Who knows Bush might not even seek re-election. After all, his dream job as Commisioner of Baseball might come open???
But here's one final spin for all the people who felt Gore was cheated.....If Gore had won, he would have won the presidency with 49% of the votes and only 41% of the states......maybe even less. In fact if the Republicans had challenged the results in New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa and got 1 of the 3.....Gore could have become President by winning only 20 states. See, it just comes down to how you spin it.