steam.....what to do?

[Frank]

The last couple days there has been a lot of steam in the college hoops. I've been getting big middles. I bet whatever the limit is if I can get the original number. What should I do? Bet equally on the other end? Bet 80% off on the middle and hold 20%? Hold 40%? Hold 50%? Or hold none?

The steam seems to be winning early so far this season in college hoops. Is this an early season thing or is the steam always this dangerous? The BM's are moving the numbers quickly and more than a point or two.

I'm sure it's got to be different each year but what do you guys think I should do if I can get down on games at original numbers?

[reno]

Fred, you could make money by either holding the "original" number or by middling it. On the other hand, you could lose money by either holding it or by middling it.

Middling is no walk in the park. Lots of guys don't like it because you can get "juiced out" when the middles don't fall. I've been through long streaks when I thought I'd never hit a middle again. College basketball middling was great last season; however, the two previous years, middlers starved. M the J, a Hall-of-Fame middler, told a friend of mine who works with him that he lost money those years. I don't know how football middling is going this year, but last year was tough.

Following the "steam" is not always a picnic, either. Some years it is unprofitable. Big groups can go bad and have losing seasons, like the Poker Players did in baseball. My ex-partner did "steam" studies for college hoops, and the three season prior to last year, the "Steam" did not win. Futhermore, you are sure to see powerful two-way action on many games. The sharpest players are on the side of the "steam" when they agree with it. When they disagree. they get great value going the other way.

In fact, REALITY himself, though he hates scalpers, does not mind middlers. He knows that middling is a tough gig. In fact, he stated that he lost his bankroll of $150,000 one year trying to middle.

[REALITY]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Frank:
[B]The last couple days there has been a lot of steam in the college hoops. I've been getting big middles. I bet whatever the limit is if I can get the original number. What should I do? Bet equally on the other end? Bet 80% off on the middle and hold 20%? Hold 40%? Hold 50%? Or hold none?

I USED TO KEEP 3X 0F THE BET AT THE BEST NUMBER IN MY POCKET AND BET 1X GOING FOR THE MIDDLE.

EXAMPLE:

1,500 ON THE STEAM SIDE

500 ON THE COLD SIDE.

The steam seems to be winning early so far this season in college hoops. Is this an early season thing or is the steam always this dangerous? The BM's are moving the numbers quickly and more than a point or two.

BEFORE CONFERENCE PLAY BEGINS THE NUMBERS ARE WEAKER THAN A NEW BORN BABY.

THE TALENT ALWAYS OUTSHINES THE B.M.'S THE FIRST MONTH OF COLLEGE BASKETS.

I'm sure it's got to be different each year but what do you guys think I should do if I can get down on games at original numbers?

YOU MUST KEEP A PIECE FOR YOUR POCKET.

IF YOU COULD PLAY THE ORIGINAL NUMBER IN EVERY GAME THAT MOVES AND BUY BACK WHEN THE ORIGINATOR BUYS BACK ,YOU SHOULD MAKE MONEY EVERY SEASON.

GETTING THE BEST OF THE NUMBER IS THE KEY TO WINNING IN ANY SEASON...

AS RENO SAID MIDDLING IS HEARTBREAKING WHEN NUMBERS DON'T FALL.

I HAD MIDDLES AS WIDE AS A FOOTBALL FIELD ONE YEAR AND I GOT CLEANED AND PRESSED.

NUMBERS NOT FALLING FOR A MIDDLER CAN MAKE A BANKROLL DISAPPEAR FASTER THAN JUMBO GULF SHRIMP AT A $9.99 BUFFET ON THE STRIP IN VEGAS...

REALITY

[Ronbets]

Come on reno, stop trying to glamorize middling. If you have your hand on the pulse of the market as you and I and many others, it's not curing cancer. Matter of fact it is a "walk in the park" practically risk free. If you got the staying power, they will land. Inevitably, armed with the DBScreen, you'll break the slower or 'non-cloning' outs. And you know where that leads!! Slow/no pay.

My advice to FRANK would be an aggressive 2or 3 to 1 heavy on the steam position early. As info and lines stabilize down to 1.5 to 1 steam.

[Frank]

I built just about my whole BR middling between slow, but paying locals in the past 8 or so years. It does get frustrating when they don't land but it seems the harder you work and the quicker you are, the bigger middles you can get. They will eventually land and help you recoup. As long as your getting the right amount of points. I try to stick to 1.5 in the NBA, 3 pts on totals and 2 pts in colleges over -8 and 1.5 if lower than -8.

Personally, I always did bet equal amounts before because during crunchtime, it was too hard to write, watch the screen, and call at the same time let alone calculate. The reason why I ask is because I always seem to be losing with the same 4 or 5 sharper guys and beating up the rest. It doesn't always work that way but more times than not, and for a lot over the course of the season.

That's why I decided to ask you guys if I should hold some and don't give most of it back. Really, I hate to gamble and mostly just middle and scalp. But if the steam is really that much sharper in the first month, I think I might hold about half.

BTW reno, middling football sucks. Especially in the colleges. Forget totals in the colleges, even if its 5 or 6 points. They never land and there isn't enough games to wait around to hit any. I lost 10 dimes in juice this weekend alone. This will definately be the last year I mess with football middling ever again. Frank

[lv711]

Hello Group...

Now this was a good read...

Let me ask you "sharps" a question.

If I was to start with a bankroll of $10,000 and was looking to stay in action for the long haul, what % of your bankroll would you play in trying to middle a side or total?

Thanks,
LV711

[REALITY]

BETWEEN 1 AND 2% PER POSITION DEPENDING ON WHAT YOUR COMFORTABLE WITH.

SO YOU CAN SHOOT FOR BETWEEN A DIME AND TWO DIME MIDDLES AT A RISK OF BETWEEN A 100 AND 200 A CRACK.

REALITY

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 11-22-2000).]

[Railbird]

No,

If your middling go all in.your on a free roll.you get to steal 2nd and keep your foot on 1st.

[sportshobby]

I'm not a middler, but I think Reality's 1-2 % is probably the maximum one should conservatively consider for middles. The old rule fo thumb of 2-5% for straight bets is a good one; but wagers that have only a 10% or less chance of winning will have longer losing streaks.

For a true scalp there is no theoretical risk, so the more the better. Of course in reality there are risks (screwing up, not getting down on the other side, waiting too late, not getting paid, etc.)