BUSH/GORE DOWN TO THE WIRE

[Phil]

starting a new thread since other was taking so bloody long to load

one additional thought to the last point in the old thread. Apparently Zogby also is saying that CALIFORNIA is only 1% for GORE! Just heard that from a guy on Hardball who said he spoke to Zogby in the show's green room before coming on the air. That certainly is food for thought.

ok here are Gregg's (VC's) latest state odds, taken from Chandlers website - looks like they're on the ball with the michigan and penn Gore trends.

MICHIGAN
gore -175
bush +125

FLORIDA
bush -175
gore +125

MINNESOTA
bush +125
gore -175

MISSOURI
bush -200
gore +150

PENNSYLVANIA
+110
gore -150

TENNESSEE
bush -187.5
gore +137.5

I agree with the michigan and penn odds but wouldn't bet them since there's no value anymore.

Ditto for Missouri and Minnesota

Don't mind the +money on Gore in Florida. That would be my bet. The Tennessee state is tough. No bet there but bush probably wins it

more to come

[whiteboy]

Zogby poll: Gore 48 Bush 46 just shown on Fox News Channel.

Politics.com has some very active forums. It's too funny. Check it out.

[Phil]

The Zogby poll in CAL is GORE by only 2%. yikes!

more VC odds

BUSH # of STATES
under 23 10:1
23-30 11:10
over 30 4:5

BUSH # OF EVs
under 225 5/1
225-295 4/5
over 295 11/8

STATES: for sure for bush: BAMA, ALASKA, ZONA, COLORADO, GEORGIA, IDAHO, KANSAS, KENTUCKY (go tiznow! sorry breeders cup relapse there )LOUSIANA, OLE MISS, MONTANA, NEBRASKA, NORTH CAROLINA, NORTH DAKOTA, OKLAHOMA (bring it home Josh! - sorry, heisman tangent there ), SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTH DAKOTA, TEXAS, UTAH, WYOMING

all but locked up for Dubayia: INDIANA &
VIRGINIA

now to the "battlegrounds" as it were:

VERY LIKELY TO BUSH: ARKANSAS, MISSOURI, NEVADA, NEW MEXICO, OHIO

so adding it all up we have bush with an ABSOLUTE MINIMUM of 27

Trending to Bush: WISCONSIN and TENNESSEE

which gives us 29, and by the way at total EV of 253

Also looks good for George in New Hampshire and West Virginia. So that's 2 more states and 9 more EV's

So I figure he's good for 31 states and 262 votes.

So I definately like the OVER 30 at -125.

If he takes both Oregon and Florida then he's be at 294 EV's which may be his top amount possible I think. Although Iowa, Maine and Washington certainly may have something to say about that. But of course he may not take Florida

So take the OVER on the states and NO BET on the EV's

[david173]

That California number is frightening, but then the Zogby state polls have at least a 4% MOE, and you would think it would be Gore by 5-6% at least.

On an ominous note, I heard this morning on the radio that they have a record number of absentee ballots in Californina -- some 3.2 million. The report was to the effect that they could not all be counted by tomorrow and it would be Wednesday before they were tallied.

So let's hope Gore runs up a nice margin in tomorrow's California voting, because its a sure bet Bush has a decided edge in the absentees.

[david173]

ATTENTION PHIL:

What's the source for your state-by-state breakdown??

[Phil]

david

my projections are based on looking over any and all polls I can find for the states. Zogby's, Reurteurs, all the networks websites (love the electoral pop up maps by the way) and the campaign odds site which is great the way it converts everthing into odds just wish they'd update it more often

I think we can all agree on Bush's absolute floor of 159 right? and as well INDIANA and VIRGINIA too? so that's 184.

After that any of the others really could go either way but it would be a big surprise to see a place like ARK or NEV going DEM.

CALIFORNIA
yup, that absentee ballot business is CRAZY!! and apparently in Washington, somewhere like 50% of the ballots are MAIL BALLOTS.

So perhaps not so much in the Presidential Race, but for sure in the HOUSE we may have to wait DAYS to find out who won and who has control and fyi, control of the HOUSE may be a whole lot more important after this election than ever before.

[Phil]

Ok I'm bitter. Where the hell is DRUDGE and the EXIT POLLING. I thought he was going to follow through and not cowtow to the networks and actually put up the information. Instead I find that today there's been no website update since 12:14pm.

It is morally wrong that the networks, their cronies, and the polling agency (Voter News Service) and their friends KNOW at this point which way the vote is going and yet the general public is basically blindfolded until the polls closes. this is crap.

I NEED NUMBERS!!!!

[Chillin-the-Most]

Phil,
I too have checking the site intermittently to no avail. However, I could not disagree with you more. The information should be withheld from the GP. Unfortunately, the GP is not as smart as you and some, if they have this kind of information there is no doubt the election would be tarnished and illegitimate.
Rich

[david173]

I have personally been unable to access the Drudge site. I am sure it is being beseiged by hits.

However, reports from people claiming to have accessed the site are to the effect that although Gore is compettive in and perhaps winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida - the three states he had targeted -- he is losing ALL the minor battlegrounds, i.e., Missouri, Wisconsin, Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas, Oregon, etc, etc.

The upshot, again based on the hearsay reports, is that Bush is the winner, because even if everything that's still close based on the exit polls goes to Gore, it still does not add up to 270 EVs.

Go to www.politics.com and check out the forums, where people are reporting what they are viewing on Drudge.

For what its worth, Hillary is apparently going to the Senate -- ahead of Lazio by 6-8 points.

[Chillin-the-Most]

Drudge report is up. Here is cut and paste from Headlines:

DRUDGE REPORT... TUE NOV 07 2000 18:30:21 ET... UPDATED BY MATT DRUDGE...

BATTLE: GORE CORNERS BIG STATES, BUSH PLOWS HEARTLAND...
GORE UP 21% IN NY; 16% IN CALIFORNIA; 15% IN NJ, SAY CAMPAIGN SOURCES...
GORE MOVES AHEAD IN FLORIDA BY 3%, SAY CAMPAIGN SOURCES....
NADER VOTE COLLAPSED...
INDEPENDENTS CUT 2 TO 1 FOR GORE, SAY SOURCES...