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Look at H. Clinton - 170 ($550 limit) at Intertops & if you prefer a scalp Lazio +235 at Carib. GLTA, Ticker
Chest, How's the Prez race looking to ya?
Chest, How's the Prez race looking to ya?
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Thanks Ticktape for the info. I was aware of the Intertops number but not the Carib. Considering how close the race is, +235 on Lazio might be a nice play. Last I heard, he was within 3% or so of Hillary.
As for the Presidential race, the numbers are about the same, it seems. Depending on who you believe, there are anywhere from 10-14 states up for grabs still. What's a bit alarming for anyone trying to figure this out is that anywhere from 8-10% of "likely voters" still say they're undecided. That's rather high this late in the game. My gut feeling is that most of them simply won't vote. But assuming they all do vote, Gore has to carry that group by 3-1 to pull this off. That seems extremely remote. Another way to look at this is to assume that the undecideds split 50/50 among Gore and Bush or simply don't vote. Then, assuming turnout similar to 1996, approx. 1.5 million people have to change they're mind between now and next Tuesday for Gore to win the popular vote. That's also extremely remote. BTW that's based on a 5% Bush lead in the popular vote at this point, which he may or may not have. To save anyone the trouble, you can find numbers ranging from Gore ahead by 1-2 all the way to Bush ahead by 10%. But take them all and average them out and you'll get 4-5% for Bush. But I stand by what I said last week. How much of an edge do you have to have to pull the trigger on a play? Right this moment, it's not difficult to create a reasonable scenario with Bush at 270 or even 300+ electoral votes. You have to pretty creative to do the same for Gore, with almost no margin for error. The problem for Gore's camp, among many I suspect, is this. You'd have a monumentally tough time devising a strategy that does not concede 245-250 Electoral votes to Bush (assuming he wins Florida)That leaves Gore with the task of virtually sweeping all the "toss-up" states to win, not to mention winning all the ones he's supposed to. For Bush it's a lot simpler. Win Florida, win 3-4 of the toss-ups or just Florida, Penn and say New Mexico. And the fat lady can sing!
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Rick Lazio is now leading Hillary Clinton in a NY Post poll by 5%. You can still get Lazio at more than 2-1 at Carib (odds have been slipping down for a week, currently +230) and SIA (+225), as well as +130 at Itops (a scalp can also be done (-170 for Clinton)). Might be worth a few bucks on a very live 2-1+ Dog!
Here's the link. http://www.nypostonline.com/campaign2000/15022.htm
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chestrockwells, Some of these polls have Gore winning Florida. Michigan is a dead heat. It's not worth laying a heavy price on Bush at this time. I think Lazio is worth a shot at +2.00.Comment
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What heavy price? You can still get Bush at
-130 or so. Hey,everybody is entitled to their own opinion and I'm not going to rehash all this again. My opinions on this election are not political. In my posts on this and in the other thread last week I tried to explain why this is a very good play. Hopefully some of you will play it and make some money. That would make me happy as it would be my small contribution back to this site, which has helped me a lot in the past few years. With the exception of a flyer here and there on autoracing, I never come here with picks......because I pale by comparison to some here that do know what they're talking about re:football or hoops or whatever. But this is what I know. I'm not trying to be condescending, but frankly some of the counter arguments I've heard here seem to be of the "well this can happen and that can happen" variety. Sure, anything can happen. I mean the Rams could go scoreless next weekend......it could happen. But is it likely to? The Ravens could score 5 TD's this weekend. It could happen, but is it likely? IMHO this is where we're at on the elections as well. There's a lot of things that can happen, but is it likely to?Comment
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Lazio down to +150 at SIA and +190 at Carib. Guess they read the posting boards and the NY papers.Comment
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