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  • Are Shrewd But Honest Players Welcome?

    Is a skilled sportsbettor an undesirable customer, from the sportsbooks’ perspective?

    Clearly there are a lot of things players can do that are unambiguously dishonest and wrong, and that are to be condemned as much as are the actions of disreputable books. For example, getting multiple bonuses by signing up under several fictitious names, betting through a beard at a place where you have been banned, exploiting software flaws to past post or bet clearly inaccurate lines, losing as a credit player and then disappearing without paying, etc.

    But what I’m asking about is not someone who behaves dishonestly or dishonorably like that, but someone who is simply a shrewd and skilled enough player to win more than he loses.

    Is there an unspoken “Gentlemen’s Agreement” that a player will not take full advantage of all the (honest) angles that are available out there? For instance:

    1. At a sportsbook with a “no juice” special certain days and times, Player makes 100% of his plays during those times, and thus never pays juice.

    2. At a sportsbook with parlay odds like the Dunes (juice can be as low as the equivalent of -102 or -103 straight bets), Player only bets parlays there and never straight plays.

    3. Player fulfills the bare minimum betting requirements for obtaining the sign-up bonus and immediately withdraws his money, deposits it with another book for another bonus, and cycles through books like this indefinitely.

    4. Player is a scalper who is content to bet only the infrequent plays where it is not necessary to take a position and anticipate a line move. Thus, Player is, in effect, never risking any money at all, but is always guaranteed of a small profit.

    5. Player is simply a good handicapper, or obtains his plays from some person or group who is, and establishes a clear and consistent pattern of winning more often than he loses over a long period of time.

    Etc.

    Are bettors who do one or more of these things doing something shady? If I’ve benefited from making a lot of no juice plays at a sportsbook, should I throw them a few –110 plays that are available for less elsewhere just to be sporting or to show my appreciation?

    I want to say that there is no such obligation. On the other hand, why would a sportsbook want such customers? Granted, they might not be technically violating any rules, but what are they contributing to the sportsbook’s overhead and such if they are only making the plays they can make with no juice, or only betting scalps with a guaranteed profit? Are they simply to be grudgingly tolerated because it is too complicated to exclude them without also losing the kind of customers you want to have? As a book, would you feel justified in giving such players lesser treatment in the hopes that they’d voluntarily take their business elsewhere?

    I want to improve to where I can do as well as possible at sportsbetting. I’d hate to think that being smart enough to shop lines, take advantage of bonuses and promotions, make skilled picks, etc. makes me an undesirable customer, but I have to wonder. After all, we know what casinos think of blackjack card counters—at least the few who can really do it successfully. To the layman, there seems to be a huge ethical difference between a cheater and a skilled card counter, but to the casino, the bottom line is that both are taking money from them, and both should be eliminated if possible. Is the same true of a sportsbook customer who plays in such a way as to withdraw more money than he deposits over the long run? Do sportsbooks have that same attitude as toward the card counters that all that really matters is the bottom line that ultimately the money is moving in the wrong direction?

    What do you guys think? Can a player be too savvy about such things? Should he tone it down and not take full advantage of each and every opportunity that comes his way? One would think that the answer is obvious, but I would be curious to hear various perspectives, including from sportsbooks themselves.

  • #2
    This should be an interesting thread. I'll bet there are a very diverse set of answers, depending on the book and the bookmaker. Some books clearly (by stated policy) don't want this type of customer (one that wins). Others may see him as a help in sharpening their lines or in getting buyback when they need it.

    Comment


    • #3
      Zippy,

      I am guessing a player like you would need these advantages to have any chance at all to break even.I am pretty good at guessing so I am pretty confident you dont hurt a BMs bottom line.

      Comment


      • #4
        Your guess about my abilities may or may not be accurate, Railbird, but it is of dubious relevance, since obviously my questions were intended more generally.

        A lot of the things I mention in my post happen not to apply to how I play anyway. But I still think, with sportshobby, that the general topic could be an interesting one to explore.

        Comment


        • #5
          Having worked on both sides of the counter, you can soon pick which players fit this profile, and which are your regular players that will bet anything anytime.

          The trick for sportsbooks is to make sure the ratio of 'mugs' to 'shrewds' is in their favour. When shrewds are small-size players, it's a great help to the book - not much risk, gives you an idea immediately about whether you are 'over the market', etc. It's the bigger shrewd players that keep you on your toes, and that you'd rather not see. If you can't balance the action against them regularly, then you have to consider 'laying off' their money at another book. Only hack sportsbooks get rid of these players. If they are that good, then move their bet, and then have more on it, so you can profit from their knowledge and research. Any book that expects to only have 'mug' clientele is in dreamworld.

          If a shrewd player can manage to do it without getting noticed, then well done. Any book worth its salt will have profit/loss figures on clients, and the style of betting will soon show whether it's a lucky streak or sheer hard work to get that number.

          Comment


          • #6
            Fantastic post Zippy!

            I have wondered about most of these questions myself and have never really gotten a clear indication of other players' thinking.

            Looking forward to some good info here!

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            • #7
              Nice informative post, Boris. I thought only us Yanks had that savy Chong Ming(phoenically Cantanese).


              Comment


              • #8
                I would say that NO BOOK wants these type of customers. It's like the super market that has specials every week. Nobody wants the customer that SHOPS FOR VALUES.

                The thing is, Just like the super markets, The books know this is going to happen. It comes with advertising to the public. You will get all kinds of customers... good and bad.

                Some 7-11 clone books (and even these so-called biggest books) will just treat this customer like he's a low life for TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THEM! That's how they look at them. Other books will just book their action and not worry about this because this happens in this business and they are big boys who don't cry.

                The wildest thing about it is that the biggest off-shores today are there because THEY took advantage of the HUGE amounts of the so-called (Public Sucker). They put them on INFLATED LINES if they could. They rounded down parlay payoffs so they PAID LESS. Anything they could get away with. At the time most betters didn't have an option. THIS IS CHANGING THOUGH. Slowly the average better will get sharper and these books will not be able to do this much longer. The booking business WILL GET ALOT HARDER AS TIME GOES BY!

                The ONLY THING that makes them bigger (not better) than the others, Is that they happened to be the first to go off-shore and advertise to the public. But when these books find out who the sharp players are, They (all the books) will treat them like their wrong for trying to beat THEM!

                These books are huge! And they still CRY about these sharp players beating them. Some will even claim they don't (cater?) to wiseguys.... Meaning they just want to take bets from IDIOTS.

                Others will say their GREAT bookies because they take action from wiseguys. Like that is some kind of BRAVE THING TO DO? These books have so much action a MONKEY could run these Books. They can't lose money unless they are gambling with the book. They have signed up so many public betters and claim THEY claim that, THAT makes them bookies!

                They are GREAT MARKETING PEOPLE. Nothing more... Nothing less.

                And they also advertise that they PAY. To me that makes the rest of the Industry look like a bunch of ripoffs. Your using the fear that alot of people have about sending the off-shores money and not getting paid to YOUR ADVANTAGE. Your a book that is really saying send US your money because the other Books DON'T PAY! Sign up with US or you will get Ripped off is the message.....

                If I had a Book I would not like this at all! You almost force all the other books to say the same thing. It's like your sucker punching the other books. Do they all have to stoop to that level of advertising? That pisses me off........

                Comment


                • #9
                  OK, first BM to address this. Since you don't know which book I work with, I can give it to you straight. No, we don't like you, but in the interest of customer service you won't be asked to leave. Incentives are used to attract attention to your sportsbook. We hope the incentives will allow us a chance to shine in all areas of service and thus become your #1 book. The market has changed and we don't neccessary like it. We have to cut our profit margins to compete, it's no longer a good enough selling point to tell you that you won't get busy signals, all our clerks speak perfect english and all that. Everyone is saying that, whether they deliver or not. Believe me, some sales people will tell you anything to get you into the book, how the book keeps you is not their concern. So, are you upset that you didn't get the service promised? Nah, not really, cause you got a neat 20% added to your account.
                  Now, about abusing the bonus and incentives and moving on with through. You are not going to endear yourself to any sportsbooks by doing this. We can't really be upset with you for this, but excuse us if we tell you that you can take your business elsewhere when you make your final withdrawal. How many bridges can you burn before you run out of good outs?

                  Fortunetly if you have a good client base over years you can afford to stand your ground when newer players call and demand you meet other books incentives or they are going to leave. Some books don't have this luxury, they have to maintain a steady influx of new captial to keep affording to absorb the incentives. This is a vicious cycle which if the public picks right two or three weeks in a row could be fatal for some high overhead, high incentive books.

                  So, what do you want? Solid books with solid lines and solid funds or active players in the incentives wars in which you are double gambling with, IF I win, do get paid over and over. Most of the posters I read here shop for the incentives and think it's the other guys who get stiffed.

                  There are great books out there that still believe that players just want to be treated fairly and given entertainment value with the treatment they receive. These books invest in phone bandwidth, employee training, customer service, fast payouts, computer systems, and treat players individually to insure they receive these things.

                  Other books need bodies and fast, so they don't have the time or patience to reap the rewards of this type of building of client base. They can throw up 40% bonuses and hope the players lose enough to fill in these things later with the winnings. ]

                  This is still a business and anyone who runs it hoping the players guess wrong and lose will fill these forums with clients who didn't get paid.

                  So, Zippy, you can probably get away with all the things you say your doing for now. Because your in a minority. But to be honest if all players were like you, alot of books would go out of business.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Lets just say I dislike both extremes in this industry. I cannot stand books that say "see ya" to players in categories 4 and 5 especially 5, as that is basically everybody's objective. By the same token, I consider players, in categories 1, 2, and 3 parasites to the industry(really just 3, 1 and 2 only if the player fits in category 4 or 5-if you cannot win and are minimizing losses, I do not think a book would even care).

                    I do not like the way the industry is headed. I think this huge competition is going to create big problems for far too many books. I would prefer a more stable environment, where bonuses were within reason, say 10%, Vigs remain at -110; -107 and -105 is great for the player, but if it gets to the point where everyone has to do that to compete, what is next? Well, what else, time to boot winners, lower limits, reduce betting options, AND cut operating costs by providing worse customer service. How else are books going to make it with so much competition, high operating costs and reduced profit margins.

                    I realize my opinion will take some heat. I know this is a players forum. But players look at it this way, once you reach your goal of being able to win consistently than you will not worry about such nonsense as 20% bonuses and -105 juice, you will worry about, where you can bet a reasonable amount, and whether they will actually pay you. Right now there are plenty of shops in that category, but if they start losing customers to -105 shops or have to start using -105 themselves that might change. Also when books start running off with your money, because they could not make it, ASK YOURSELF WHY?

                    It is my opinion that the Offshore betting world suffers, when Joes Mickey Mouse shop opens with a 25% bonus, and wiseguy clauses and dual lines and unknown capital behind them. If they succeed, how does the industry benefit? If they fail, they can stiff or cheat clients, further tarnishing the image of the offshore industry, and the bottom line is every bet they take is a bet that some other shop loses action on. You multiply this by the many mickey mouse shops that seem to arrive almost daily and eventually, other shops suffer.

                    Since new shops will continue to open, I think that players should support the shops that behave the way YOU think they should, and stay away from the ones that do not. In other words, show some loyalty. If a book has treated you well and is giving you a 10% bonus, while another book that has nothing else to offer you is offerring a 20% bonus, show a little character and stick with YOUR BOOK, and the 10% bonus.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Good, solid, informative posts, including this most recent one from intheknow. I should correct a misimpression, however. I was merely giving examples of behaviors that it seems to me would enable a player to withdraw more than he deposits over the long run. I wasn’t implying that I personally do those things.

                      I didn’t intend the post to be about me specifically, but I don’t have a problem being totally upfront about it. So, I’ll go through my list (refer to my original post in this thread) and state whether it applies to me or not, so there will be no ambiguity.

                      1. I am taking advantage of vig free opportunities at those of my outs that offer them. I am not making 100% of my plays at no vig. Typically, I have at least a few plays I make closer to game time, and for those I simply shop for the best line. I end up making some of these plays at the books that I earlier made no vig plays at.

                      2. I do shop for the lowest vig on parlays and teasers and other non-straight bets. However, as with #1, I also make full vig plays here and there, and for those I shop for the best line. Some of these end up going in at the places where I also made low vig parlay or teaser plays.

                      3. I never pull my money out of a shop because I’ve surpassed whatever the minimum requirements are for getting the bonus. I tend not to even be conscious of such requirements. I assume I’m playing enough volume that I’ll easily fulfill such minimums without having to go out of my way to do so. If I pull my money out of somewhere, it’ll be because I’m dissatisfied with their service, or because I’m not intending to bet for at least several months and would prefer not to let my money sit overseas at no interest. It’ll never be because I’m going to turn around and send that money to a different book the next day to get another bonus. I prefer to stick with books I like rather than to keep jumping to new ones.

                      4. I’ve never scalped. Now that I have multiple outs, I may shop for the occasional opportunity in the future, especially on sports where I’m not confident enough of my knowledge to make substantive picks. (I don’t have to know anything about badminton to know that betting Player A at +105 at one book and Player B at +105 at a different book is a pretty solid deal for me.) But I’ve never scalped in the past, and I doubt it would ever be more than a small part of my repertoire in the future.

                      5. Even paying close to full vig in the past, I’ve won more than I’ve lost over the years at sportsbetting. So I at least barely fit this one. I’d love to fit it even more in the future, but I don’t know if that will happen.

                      Anyway, that’s just so people won’t continue to jump to conclusions that everything I describe was intended to be about me. I’d like this thread to be of more general interest, and to apply to many players pursuing many strategies.

                      For instance, just because I’m not a scalper doesn’t mean I’m not interested in whether the Reality position (I don’t mind my “regular” players taking advantage of scalping opportunities, but pure scalpers are not welcome at my book) or the Reno position (Solid books welcome scalpers because they help balance the action and hammer lines into shape) is the more widely accepted one in the industry. And even if I weren’t interested, surely many Bettorsworld readers are.

                      intheknow makes a good point about how players have to decide if their higher priority is the peace of mind of being with a solid shop that they know will pay them, or getting all the bells and whistles that are being offered out there that can be so profitable to the bettor.

                      The implication of the choice is that you can’t have both. My approach—and perhaps I’m guilty of naivete or wishful thinking here—has been to stick to Bettorsworld approved books that get uniformly good feedback in this and similar forums, and then only within that very small subset of books to shop for the best incentives. If it turns out in the future that none of the approved books can afford to offer big bonuses and discount juice and such because doing so would be fiscally irresponsible, then fine. I’ll still stick with those solid books and not take chances with the others. But as long as Jeff and Brian of Bettorsworld, and the Major and the Devil, and posters like reno, intheknow, krackman, SLAM DUNK, DoggieStyle, and so on and so forth unanimously endorse a book as solid that happens to offer some of these appealing incentives, then those are the books I’m most likely to sign up with.

                      If I have to make a choice, I’ll take the financially sound book. Insofar as it’s possible to have both, I’ll take both.

                      Still welcoming further comments on the general theme of whether being skilled enough to withdraw more than you deposit in the long run makes you as undesirable as a cheater in the eyes of the sportsbooks.

                      (Just read SLAM DUNK’s thoughtful addition to this thread after I wrote this. Excellent contribution.)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        To paraphrase LBJ, the books would rather have the players inside pissing out than outside pissing in.....

                        One thing that stuck me about this coversation is an economic and political dilemma known as a collective action problem. In our case, the free-market is truly at play, and without greater govt intervention and regulation, there will be some failures, and nobody has insurance to protect themselves (oops-maybe they do now). We'd all be likely to agree that competition between books is a good thing: the books that remain standing in the end will be there because they are more efficient, financially solid, provide better service, are more reliable, etc., everything we want in a book. We like this outcome. The problem is that the stage of present competition and the number of new entries into the market means that the system is unstable and many books will fail because they seek risk in order to gain a position and this leads to player incentives that produce "bad" collective outcomes. We want the perks of competition but don't want to be on the wrong end of the likely collective outcome. Thus, I want books to get rid of players who do the things Zippy asks about so that MY money is protected. Yet, I also want to take advantage of these "specials" because they increase MY bottom line. WE all have an individual level self-interest in doing the things that maximize our profits at the same time we want books to stop offering specials because when too many books offer them, some will eventually go under, and our money might go with them. This is a collective action problem because all of us acting rationally as individuals leads to a collective disaster.

                        As rational actors, why should players be condemned on moral terms for doing what is economically rational from a self-interest perspective? We don't attack a book for behaving rationally, in its own self-interest. Its the same thing as complaining about the right of labor to organize, but not questioning management's decisions that lead to firms relocating in foreign countries and the loss of American jobs: we tell the laborer to move on, find a new job, and applaud the increasing dividends returned by the CEO's decision.

                        Why would doing #3 make anyone "sick"? If the offer stands, and the rules don't say anything to the contrary, screw the "spirit" as I doubt the books will honor the "spirit" of a bet you didn't mean to place. Look: it's self-interest, pure and simple, and to introduce morality and ethics is ridiculous. I don't know why I keep trying to play honestly when given the opportunity, most books, most of the time, will take advantage of me and my mistakes.

                        Again, if I hit 55% in basketball, why shouldn't I seek out the -105 lines? This simply increases my take, and if rational, I should do it. I understand that if we all do this, many books will fail, but in the absence of suprastructure that prevents books from making unnecessarily risky decisions (a la savings and loan industry), I will do what I can when I can to increase my profits, even knowing that if everyone else does the same thing the **** will hit the proverbial fan.... If I am depositing $10 dimes, why shouldn't I try to get a 10% bonus if its offered, and move to another that gives me THE SAME THING. The market will eventually limit my options, as there won't be this many offers or books left in the long run, unless indeed there are 99.2% losers....This is indeed a collective action problem that will lead to problems for individuals even though it would be ludicrous to condemn any individual from behaving the way Zippy suggested, 1 though 5.

                        my 2 cents:
                        Chilly

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Zippy, great topic......

                          Nothing wrong with taking advantage of the opportunities that exist for sharp players. Again, we get back to that 98% losers figure.

                          Whatever the true number, the fact remains that the great majority of the players that sign up at places which offer reduced vig and bonuses, WON'T take full advantage of these offers.

                          They may sign up with the intentions of utilizing these edges, but more often than not, it doesn't materialize.

                          The offers wouldn't be on the table if EVERYONE took advantage of them.

                          You can't judge by what's posted in here. It's a much sharper crowd than the internet at large, and the sportsbetting public at large.

                          If you took every edge the books offered, and only played at reduced vig, would you be a nuisance? Sure. Would you get the boot? Probably not unless you were making plays that turned the screen black shortly afterwards, or went on some incredible winning streak. Short of that, you wouldn't be hurting them, and would be more of an asset to the books just from the standpoint of the positive publicity they would get out of a player like yourself, here in a public forum and from personal reccomendations to friends, etc.etc.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Zippy,

                            Off topic, what ever happened to that dilemma you had about a month ago? You asked our opinion on whether to pursue an offshore book through a friend.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              To be frank, I must be really stupid...

                              I dont go shopping books for the biggest incentive bonus. I go to books that have an established track record, I know pay, and generally have no major issues.

                              I use a lot of books, and move a fair amount of paper around, some shops get big action, some get small action. However I don't go looking for the lower juice days etc etc...

                              When it is time to play or I find a line I can deal with or it is in my targeted range, I play it.

                              Does it mean I don't shop for lines, I would be silly not to, however I don't go banging away at just 1 shop. Am I wiseguy, do I have inside info, hell no, I do my homework, try to play in restraints and keep my plays at the same levels win or lose.

                              What do books think of guys that win, not kill them for 10's of thousands but yet consistently win in the long haul??

                              Am I a risk, do I sharpen the line on bases betting overnight, or am i considered just some scmoe who is considered lucky.

                              I bet 98% of my baseball games overnight, I see value in this and more often the not the game moves linewise where I am whther it be dog or fav... I don't bet those big favs, I used to and learned many years ago how foolish it was.... Today different story....

                              Not sure if I would have the time or desire to try to whittle money out of the books I use, I prefer my strong relationship with them, than to top off my accounts with bonuses.

                              Again perhaps I am just stupid, tis my thoughts...

                              Comment

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