Bettorsworld Census

[hcunited]

Hello all!

I am relatively new to this site, and so far, I have found this forum to be an unbelievable wealth of information.

Though I don't post frequently, I find myself completely engrossed in all the various discussions on this board.

I was just wondering what type of players post up on this board. I consider myself to be a good player...nothing special. I do not use services (probably because I am skeptical and afraid of trusting someone, only to get wiped out in the end). I don't consider myself to be an adept handicapper in any of the sports, but I seem to get by with some profits overall.

I have been waiting months for football season and now that we are here, I find myself w/o a reliable system...what type of systems and resources do most of you use? Seems like some are their own handicappers and others rely heavily on intricate statistical analysis.

Well whatever the case, thanks for all of your info. Because of you, I have learned the lingo a bit more and consider myself to be a quickly evolving "once square" !!!

I want to learn the ins and outs...I know most of it comes from experience (good AND bad), but nonetheless, all your info is greatly appreciated!

[Railbird]

1. The next 2 days,I want you to bet halftimes only,look at the total 1st then the side.

2.Sunday at 5pm pst I want you to make all lines for NCAA,and NFl for upcoming week,see how close you get.

3.I believe football is a game of emotion,so I am not a big fan of stats

4.Like Tony Robbins says,the past does not= the future,therefore I am not a big fan of systeyms or angles.

5.never wager more than 5% of your bankroll on 1 play.

6.Do not look at comparative scores,especially in NCAA.

7.Bet favorites early as possible (sun nite or Mon morn)bet dogs at Kickoff.

8.To think correct,eat correct and exercise.
9.like a good putter trusts the line and his stroke,trust your own opinion.

10.If you lose 3 in a row,close your eyes take a deep breath,then drink 2oz of wheat grass,then close your eyes take a deep breath.You then will win 4 out of 5.

11.On Monday Morn after you win,PULL OUT YOUR MONEY.look for a 10% bonus at a diffrent book.Make these whiny bookmakers pay you,PRONTO.

12.THe 2 BEST football books by far are DUNES and CANBET.

13.Books that make you lay -110 are TOTAL SCUM.I repeat do not lay -110.

[reno]

Hcunited, regarding No.10 by Railbird, if you substitute Johnny Walker Black Label for the wheatgrass, you'll win 5 out of 6.

[SLAM DUNK]

1)Hate to lose. Seriously. I bet very many games, and therefore I lose quite a few, but I hate to lose every one of them. Whether 1/2 % of my bankroll or 10% of my bankroll, I HATE TO LOSE. When you lose a game, try to figure out why. Did you miss something, was it random, did your team just not show up, is there a reason they did not show up? Now do not get me wrong, losing is part of the game, and at times you will lose with the right side, but your mistakes usually come into focus during or after an event, more so than prior to the event-when the adrenaline is flowing. Try not to make the same mistakes over again. By the same token, the only way to learn is to lose, so while I hate losing, I appreciate losing, because that is the best way to learn. But only if you actually hate to lose.

2) Watch games. If I bet football seriously, I would tape and watch virtually every game.
In my opinion, you gain much, much more by watching games than you do by looking at stats. Watch every game, and there isn't even a need to look at a box score. You learn each teams strengths and weaknesses. Stats can be very misleading at times.


3) Railbird, brought up some good points, my favorite of which is EMOTIONS. Football and Basketball are both games in which emotions often dictate outcome. Learn when a team will be pumped up, learn when a team might be flat and you have a huge edge.

[sportsbank]

Excellent post Railbird. Stats and trends
can be very misleading in my opinion.
There's no substitute for actually
sitting down and watching a game, to get
a "feel" for a team.

I disagree with #10. Instead of wheat
grass, have an ice cold 12oz Heineken.
Everyone knows beer and football, make
an ideal couple.

Sportsbank.

[PMcK]

Railbirb, on number 11, here's even better way. Open an account at book A with $1000 and get $100 bonus, leave the bonus there and move the $1000 to book B for another $100. After ten moves you still have your $1000 and a $100 account at ten different books. So you have doubled your initial deposit and perhaps book A will give you the bonus again and you can start the next round!

Do you need to risk your money with bets at all?

[Ronbets]

PMcK,

Nice idea in theory, but these sportsbooks have a heartbeat!

[Mojo]

Try that move and not only will you lose your bonus but you will be charged for incoming and outgoing fees.

[Trisha]

hcunited,

I'm new to this board, too, although I've been following it silently for months. I said my official "hello" in the "99.82% losers" post and if you haven't done so already, I highly suggest reading it. Several members bring up topics that are important for both novices and veterans to keep in mind.

Just my two cents, but don't be too quick to jump on either the fundamental or technical handicapping bandwagons. YOU have to decide which style better suits your personality. Are you better with numbers, math, percentages, and stats, OR are you more of a "people person" who can better predict outcomes based on a team's emotions, motives for revenge, trends, lack of rest, etc.? Go with your strengths.

Personally, I have a very hard time handicapping based on emotion. I look to the numbers to tell the story. Because of that, I feel I have a much better shot at successfully handicapping the pros (NFL and MLB) than college football or basketball. Knowing that the 19 year old starting QB for Hometown Univ. just broke up with his girlfriend hours before kickoff does me no good. I have no idea whether he'll use that as an incentive or an excuse - but YOU might! The example may be a silly one, but my point is simple - use your personality traits to develop a betting style that works for you. It doesn't matter how you pick the winners, it only matters that you DO.

Peace,

Trisha

ps. Railbird, just curious - why suggestion #1?

[Railbird]

Trisha,

I am trying to help this guy.I feel that capping ht's will get him thinking,plus the 1st half will give him a feel,rather than guessing how a team is going to show up,but most important is that ht lines are not as hard to beat,beacause 13 miuntes instead of 6 days pass by,and # will not be so sharp,especially this time of year in NCAA.

[TrendSetter]

Make a check list. Some things to consider are:

1. The bounce factor. Mainly in the NFL. A team that either beats the spread by greater than 15 or loses against the spread by more than 15 points. In the first situation, look for the team to have a let down. In the second, look for the team to come on stong.

2. Look ahead situation. Is the team looking to the next opponent. I hit 2 money lines 2 weeks in a row with this. Green Bay blew out someone while Detroit had been blown out. Green Bay was playing at Detroit and had a rival opponent the next week (look ahead). Played the money line on Detroit. Detroit won straight up. The next week I had a money line against Detroit at New Orleans. It was identical situations. New Orleans won straight up.

3. Weather. Make sure that the weather is not affecting the game. Especially if you were planning on playing the over and find that the wind is gusting at 35 mph.

4. Injuries. Look what happened to Dallas last year when Michael Irvin went down. They never recovered.

5. Is this game important. If a team clenched the playoffs, the players will let their guard down and the dog will bite.

Have Fun!!! And Good Luck...

[This message has been edited by TrendSetter (edited 09-10-2000).]

[PMcK]

Mojo, my idea was a joke I know that the books have rules about how much you have to bet before you actually own the bonuses they give and perhaps they even communicate with each other if somebody starts moving money like Railbird suggested?

[Trisha]

Railbird -

I agree 100% with your assessment of halftime betting. I'm a little surprised that there isn't more discussion/interest in this area - is it just a matter of limits being too low to attract the big boys?

Peace,

Trisha

[Railbird]

Trisha,

I was 2-5 today until 2nd half,2nd session.

then had Saints Pick
Saints over 17
Hawks +5.5

all 3 were easy,obvious plays.

halftime is half the battle.

[zippy]

hcunited, I think you very much have the right attitude already. The way I’ve improved over the years is by never being complacent, never thinking I know it all already, always looking for new angles, etc. The deeper I get into all this, the more I realize how much one can do to get better. Mostly I think it’s a matter of taking care of the little things, of making little incremental improvements in your game. I know I have a lot of growing to do as a sportsbettor, so I’m always working on a lot of different areas. For example:

1. Shop lines. There was a post awhile back by someone asking how often you can get different lines around key numbers like 3 or 7, given that the other numbers don’t matter enough to bother. Well, every number matters. Maybe the game only has a 1% or 2% chance of landing on a particular uncommon number, but wouldn’t you rather have a loss become a push, or a push become a win on even just those 1% or 2% of occasions? I’ll get lazy sometimes and not check every one of my outs before I place a bet. But that’s a mistake.

2. Research the sportsbooks before you send them money. I’ve gotten a lot better at this one, though I could always do more. Luckily I never got burned badly in the past, though I had some harrowing experiences and some stressful close calls.

3. Put the time and effort into researching the hard data before buying into any theories about trends and such. There are a lot of plausible claims about teams responding certain ways in certain emotional situations, but the problem is that most people remember the cases that confirm the theory and forget or explain away the cases that disconfirm it. Never base your bets on anything you haven’t thoroughly researched.

For instance, maybe someone tells you that teams that had losing records last year tend to be good bets in the preseason, because their coaches tend to want to get them into the habit of winning, even if the games are meaningless, whereas the other teams already know they can win, and they tend to wait until the regular season to go all out. And you think this sounds plausible, and maybe you even can think of some specific recent games that are consistent with this theory.

OK, that’s fine, but never bet based on this until you’ve dug out the records from recent years and tracked precisely what percentage of the time in recent years such teams have in fact beaten the spread in preseason games. Don’t go by memory, intuition, or what seems plausible. Investigate.

4. You can always manage your money better. Read what wintermute and J.R. Miller and others have written about the Kelly System and other methods of betting, and determine what makes the most mathematical sense as a way of determining your bet size. Then be disciplined and stick to it.

5. Take advantage of low vig deals. Learn how to calculate the vig on parlays and other bets, and get in the habit of shopping around not only for the best line, but for the way to bet it at the lowest vig.

6. Monitor yourself and your own tendencies. When do you seem to win and when are you more likely to lose? When do you get desperate and bet more than you should have? Look for correlations with fatigue, being way ahead, being way behind, having other stressful things occurring in your life, drug and alcohol use, etc. Be honest with yourself and ascertain when you are at your best for gambling, and then have the discipline to only gamble during those times.

There’s obviously a lot more, but that’s kind of the point—be aware that there is always vast room for improvement in all different areas. You can always know more about sportsbook policies and promotions, trends, calculating odds, line movements, handicapping the sports themselves, branching out into other sports, money management, self-discipline, and on and on and on. Everything matters. There are countless ways that you can be just that one little bit better at sportsbetting. The more of these opportunities you take seriously and take advantage of, the more additional opportunities for improvement you will find they open up for you.

I can honestly look back and say that I made more money (or lost less money) at sportsbetting this year than I would have under the same conditions in previous years because I did this, this, this and this differently than I used to. Anyone who can’t say the same has stopped growing as a sportsbettor. And that shouldn’t be acceptable to you, unless you’re perfect, which you aren’t.