Comp picks from Tuesday's PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER Newsletter

[J. R. Miller]

Because of the recent controversy involving us on this forum, we thought we'd show what we offer to pro sports bettors and successful part-timers. Here's our analyses of today's MLB games, as published in today's PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER Newsletter, (available at http://www.professionalgambler.com ):

NOTE: Be sure to shop for the best lines.

Today's Picks at a Glance:
DODGERS(PARK) over Rockies(Yoshii)
PADRES(WILLIAMS) over Giants(Rueter)
ROYALS(SUPPAN) over Whitesox(Parque)
Royals(Suppan) at Whitesox(Parque) OVER
ANGELS(ETHERTON) over Rangers(Oliver)

TODAY'S MLB ANALYSES:
Always list pitchers unless otherwise noted (as "ACTION")

VISITOR/HOME CRIS Olympc ABCisl
DODGERS(PARK) -112 14o20 -110
ROCKIES(YOSHII) 14½u15 -110 14o
Our opinion: DODGERS(PARK) to -110 at Rockies(Yoshii)
According to our figures the Dodgers are currently a "little" better than the Rockies in a lot of ways, which adds up to a significant overall difference. We have the Dodgers' bats currently rated as being 'worth' 10 hits per game, compared to the Rockies' bats currently being 'worth' 8.6 hits per game. We show the Dodgers are converting those 10 hits to 5.7 runs, the Rockies are converting their 8.6 hits to only 4.6 runs. The Dodgers' starting pitcher Park has a current men-on-base stat of 13.9 (not good) compared to Yoshii's current stat of 16.2 men on base (very bad). We think there is at least a 55% probability of Los Angeles winning this game. Note that our mathematical formulas are projecting a total score substantially less than 14 runs, but considering this ballpark and these pitchers we recommend staying away from this posted total.

VISITOR/HOME CRIS Olympc ABCisl
GIANTS(RUETER) -130 -125 -125
PADRES(WILLIAMS) 9 9o15 9
Our opinion: PADRES(WILLIAMS) to +110 over Giants(Rueter)
We do not show a lot differences between these teams' bats at this time. We like the Padres because of the current differences in these two pitchers. Rueter lasted 26 1/3 innings in his last 5 starts, allowed 25 hits and 9 walks - 15.1 men on base. Williams lasted a whopping 37 2/3 innings in his last 5 starts, allowed only 34 hits and 10 walks - 10.5 men on base. Moreover, Rueter has done better at home than on the road. Rueter has a men-on-base stat of 14.5 as a visitor this year. (Williams has a men-on-base stat of 10.8 so far this year at home.) We see no reason this game should be worse than a toss-up for the Padres, and we think San Diego should actually be favored to win, laying perhaps -120.

VISITOR/HOME CRIS Olympc ABCisl
ROYALS(SUPPAN) 10½o 10½o15 10½o
WHITESOX(PARQUE) -175 -180 -180
Our opinion: ROYALS(SUPPAN) to +140 at Whitesox(Parque)
Our opinion: Royals(Suppan) at Whitesox(Parque) OVER to 11.0 -120
According to our formulas, even giving away a very big home field advantage, the Whitesox figure to be no better than a -120 favorite here. We show the Royals' bats are currently 'worth' 10.5 hits per game against 'average' pitching, the Whitesox' bats are currently 'worth' 10.1 hits per game against average pitching. The Royals have been scoring 6.5 runs, the Whitesox have been scoring 5.9 runs. The Royals have been allowing 5.6 runs, the Whitesox have been allowing only 4.7 runs. Currently, these pitchers' stats are roughly even - and neither pitcher is doing well. Suppan has a current men-on-base stat of 13.8, Parque has a current men-on-base stat of 14.2. (The league average for starting pitchers hovers around 12.0.) Such poor pitching stats 'help' the Over pick, but also 'help' the Underdog pick in this particular situation.

VISITOR/HOME CRIS Olympc ABCisl
ANGELS(ETHERTON) 11u15 11u20 11u15
RANGERS(OLIVER) -115 -115 -120
Our opinion: ANGELS(ETHERTON) to -110 at Rangers(Oliver)
Even if the pitching were even here we'd show the Angels winning this game. We show the Angels have a better field defense. Anaheim has currently allowed only 3.8 runs off 9.1 hits, compared to the Rangers' defense allowing 5.6 runs off 11.2 hits. The pitching, however, is not even. Etherton clearly has better current stats than Oliver. Etherton lasted 31 1/3 innings in his last 5 starts and earned a stat of 10.4 men on base. Oliver lasted only 23 innings in his last 5 starts and got mauled to the tune of 18.0 men on base. Although there is a considerable home field advantage involved with this game, we have to like the Angels to win this game at least 55% of the time.

Good Luck - J. R.

[mls]

Good writeups.

But ... needs to be posted in Bookies Hell Posting Forum (not Book Rants and Raves) ...

[noholdsbarred]

Right. Mls any update on the Bowmans situation?

[J. R. Miller]

Okay....Sorry.

[bucky]

J.R.
No big deal J.R. I wouldn't have seen it in the other place.

[AussieVamp2]

ta,

Nice to see JR has decided to stay around.

The more smart people the better.

[reno]

AussieVAmp2, exactly. In the last few weeks, a lot of bright new posters have infiltrated Bettorsworld. And thanks to these new posters, including J.R., Bettorsworld is now better than ever.

[PerpetualCzech]

AV,

Agreed.

[sportshobby]

Several years ago I set out to try and become a handicapper. Now when I put my mind to something, I try with all my might. It may be hard to believe, but I actually bought and read every published book on sports handicapping that could be purchased, plus quite a few journals and newsletters.

Nine-nine percent of it was total junk in my opinion. But I always thought that the exercise was worth it, to find the useful one percent.

When I read J.R.'s book on pro football, I felt like I had hit the motherlode. Several years later, it is still arguably the best single source on the market for its purpose.

Do I believe everything J.R. says? Hell, no. But I'd really like the chance to wade through and find some more useful gems.

[movingmoney]

NICE NIGHT-TO BAD I DID NOT PLAY A ONE!!!!

[Landmark95]

Reno,

I'm one of the new kids on the block. You say, Bettorsworld is better than ever? I just got back from the archives, and your series from the spring of 1999, "Las Vegas is not Disneyland" is as good as it gets. Totally awesome stuff.

Hey Czech, go back and take a look at it when you get the chance. Hear the stories from a time when a guy could actually make a score on the street. And it wasn't that long ago.