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OK Fellas, i've been reading this forum for a while now and can't help being frustrated when reading posts such as "who pays the vig" or "the 10c - 20c debate". Basically, because you yanks are so worried about how many cents are in the line, you forget about the probability that these lines represent. This is why the US format is a BAD system. I have come to educate you.
Every single price is just a probability, with juice added. A 50-50 game, at true odds, is +100,+100, or 2.00, 2.00. (to convert a US price to a REAL price, if it is a +, put a decimal after the first digit and add 1 eg. +235 = 3.35. If it is -, put in your decimal point, add one, then divide by the original number eg. -135 = 2.35/1.35 = 1.74).
Now, if a BM wants to charge, say 2% on this 50-50 game because it is baseball, it is just a matter of adding to the %. He will add his % up to 102.12 to get a THEORETICAL HOLD of 2%. ie. ((102.12-100)/102.12)*100=2. The 2% is the actual winnings provided there is equal action and no line movement (appropriately called theoretical because this NEVER, EVER happens). Now, if we go 102.12*.05 = 51.06 therefore, for a 50% chance, you must pay 51.06. To convert this to a price, 100/51.06 = 1.96 (-104). So that's who pays the juice, EVERYONE who bets without an edge, because EVERYONE has to pay for a higher % than what is actually true. How you can come up with no juice on dogs in baseball, or only winners, or only losers paying vig on pointspreads is beyond me. Every time you bet against a house edge, you pay juice. A baseball game at a true 2% hold is -104 pk, however, the BM's figured that 10c was close enough.
Now, -110 (1.91) goes like this:
(100/1.91)*2 = 104.71. ((104.71-100)/104.71)*100 = 4.5% Therefore, betting pointspreads in the long term, you will lose 4.5% of what you bet playing without an edge. I've seen things such as "10% juice on winning bets" when it should should read "4.5% juice on all bets".
Now, here's the scary thing. Many posters here claim a true 10c line should go to -200. OK, -200 = 1.5, +190 = 2.9.
(100/1.5)+(100/2.9)=101.14!!!. ((101.14-100)/101.14)*100= 1.13% that the BM will win. You gotta wonder about a BM who will let his line go this fine just so it reads a nice, simple 10c!, and who will move his line from -200 to -205 the same as he would -105 to -110 just because his standard move is 5c! Bettors, if you find these books, only play into lines -180 to -200 and you only have to beat just over 1%. Shop your numbers and there it is. Juice free betting!
Why do you think Lennox Lewis doesn't go from -1600 to -1610!. Because you are moving %'s, not cents! That's why!
IMHO, a line should be kept at a constant hold %, so baseball should be -104pk, -130 +110, -150 +138, -200 +183.
I have done this for my mathematically challenged friends there in the USofA for your benifit, after all, you did save our arses in WWII
. Just please do one thing for me......get the @$!*ing metric system!
Every single price is just a probability, with juice added. A 50-50 game, at true odds, is +100,+100, or 2.00, 2.00. (to convert a US price to a REAL price, if it is a +, put a decimal after the first digit and add 1 eg. +235 = 3.35. If it is -, put in your decimal point, add one, then divide by the original number eg. -135 = 2.35/1.35 = 1.74).
Now, if a BM wants to charge, say 2% on this 50-50 game because it is baseball, it is just a matter of adding to the %. He will add his % up to 102.12 to get a THEORETICAL HOLD of 2%. ie. ((102.12-100)/102.12)*100=2. The 2% is the actual winnings provided there is equal action and no line movement (appropriately called theoretical because this NEVER, EVER happens). Now, if we go 102.12*.05 = 51.06 therefore, for a 50% chance, you must pay 51.06. To convert this to a price, 100/51.06 = 1.96 (-104). So that's who pays the juice, EVERYONE who bets without an edge, because EVERYONE has to pay for a higher % than what is actually true. How you can come up with no juice on dogs in baseball, or only winners, or only losers paying vig on pointspreads is beyond me. Every time you bet against a house edge, you pay juice. A baseball game at a true 2% hold is -104 pk, however, the BM's figured that 10c was close enough.
Now, -110 (1.91) goes like this:
(100/1.91)*2 = 104.71. ((104.71-100)/104.71)*100 = 4.5% Therefore, betting pointspreads in the long term, you will lose 4.5% of what you bet playing without an edge. I've seen things such as "10% juice on winning bets" when it should should read "4.5% juice on all bets".
Now, here's the scary thing. Many posters here claim a true 10c line should go to -200. OK, -200 = 1.5, +190 = 2.9.
(100/1.5)+(100/2.9)=101.14!!!. ((101.14-100)/101.14)*100= 1.13% that the BM will win. You gotta wonder about a BM who will let his line go this fine just so it reads a nice, simple 10c!, and who will move his line from -200 to -205 the same as he would -105 to -110 just because his standard move is 5c! Bettors, if you find these books, only play into lines -180 to -200 and you only have to beat just over 1%. Shop your numbers and there it is. Juice free betting!
Why do you think Lennox Lewis doesn't go from -1600 to -1610!. Because you are moving %'s, not cents! That's why!
IMHO, a line should be kept at a constant hold %, so baseball should be -104pk, -130 +110, -150 +138, -200 +183.
I have done this for my mathematically challenged friends there in the USofA for your benifit, after all, you did save our arses in WWII
. Just please do one thing for me......get the @$!*ing metric system!
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