PG Newsletter - All-Star Game - Complimentary Pick

[J. R. Miller]

Here's our opinion at http://www.professionalgambler.com of today's MLB All-Star Game....

Our opinion: AMERICAN LEAGUE to +130 over American League
Our opinion: American League at National League UNDER to 9.5 -110
If ever there was a "random" outcome, the MLB All-Star Game figures to be it. We have no clue which "team" will win today, but neither does anyone else. At +130, we'd take either team and consider it an excellent value. We do like the Under. How many times in the last 1,000 years has this game produced a total of 10 or more runs? You can figure all these pitchers will be giving this game their best shot, for sure, and you can figure none of these pitchers will be overworked.

Good Luck - J. R. Miller

[DoggieStyle]

I think if you look at the pitchers on both sides you will see that this is the weakest group of All-star pitchers ever put together.

I usually look to bet these games under, but don't have any faith in these pitchers. I think the over is the play. This National league has much better pitching this year and should win.........

National League and over....

I really don't understand how the brilliant line makers can put up a 10 under on this game though. Where do they get their information? Something like 10 out of the last 40 games have gone over 10 runs.

Do books really pay for these lines?

[pay2play]

Doggiestyle, not to be argumentative, but it doesn't matter to the BM's what's gone before. They've probably just found that the betting action is NL and Over oriented, and they make the line in anticipation of that. The game probably draws more square action than most, I would guess.

[DoggieStyle]

Being argumentative is a good way for people to learn things. Although it can get out of hand.

I agree with you as for some REASON I like the over in this USUALLY GREAT UNDER PLAY. I can be a good square at times.

The problem I have with the line on this game is it really IS a bad line. Unless the game is in one of these new MINOR LEAGUE/MAJOR LEAGUE parks the total should never be higher than 9. Most of the best home run hitters we have today aren't even in the game. And you still have pretty darn good pitching.

Also the history in these baseball all-star games is that the pitchers will shut down even the best hitters 3 times out of 4. That's pretty strong.

If you put up a 9 on this game like it should have been and you get alot of over money. Then you have a big decision (on what has been over time a SOLID under play) that came from Suckers. Because that's what would have happened if these books were getting good lines!!!!!!!!!!!!

Also I really don't think that if the books put up a 9 on this game they would have gotten that much more over money. Most squares will see all 10's and bet over and if they see all 9's it's not going to change anything. That's why these Sucker books who use different lines get away with it. Most of the SUCKER players aren't going to change their mind because of the number.

The thing that might have happened is by putting up a 10 on this game they are giving the sharp players a GREAT under bet at a VERY GOOD number. See I understand your thinking, but also know sharp players who might not have bet this game that bet it under because it was high at 10.

How many sharp players bet this game under because it was high at 10? If this game goes under how much wiseguy money did the LINEMAKER cost the books because of their number?

Just my opinion..........

[J. R. Miller]

All-Star games tend to bring out an inordinate number of recreational bettors, much the same as any other 'special' game (NFL playoffs, NBA playoffs, MLB playoffs, etc.). Recreational bettors tend to like favorites and Overs. Consequently, sportbooks and linemakers must exagerate lines in order to get an acceptable amount of money risked on both sides of the proposition. That is precisely why the American League offers value today at +130 or more and the Under offers solid value at 10 runs. So far as "wise guys" cleaning up, the amount of money risked by knowledgeable sports bettors is relatively insignificant compared to the amount risked by recreational bettors.

[DoggieStyle]

First of all: Good call

The offices I have been in during the All-star games would take more money from the Scalpers, middlers, or sharp players. They always bet the limit and can overload your chart if they have a play. Then again they might not play the game. You never know. But it happens alot.

My problem behind the "public might bet the overs and favorites" is this. Why are the LINE MAKERS more concerned with the PUBLIC than the WISEGUYS. If you can beat the WISEGUYS what chance do you think the PUBLIC has? The WISEGUYS are the ones who will pound the BOOKS if they put up bad numbers. Even on the All-star game.

The Books will move on air from these WISEGUY PLAYS. Why would you ever put up a line based on PUBLIC ACTION if you risk making it a WISEGUY PLAY?

[Hamhog]

A couple of months there was a post that asked for the definition of the strongest opening line. The poster went on to claim that the strongest opening line is that which opens nearest to the closing line.

Say a shop opened tonights game at 9.5 and another one at 10u. Both numbers were higher than the 50/50 line to start with, under probably being % based on the games history.

The game closes at 10u. Which line was stronger, the one that got more balanced action or the one that maximizes profits, assuming the median total should have been 9?

[DoggieStyle]

The places that had 9.5 over had the correct line and for many reasons. First and most important is the fact the game went under. This has to be the most important factor.

If I was working and I saw the 10's showing up I would not have waited and put up a 9.5 over.

You must also remember now that there's a ton of books, The places that put up 9.5's probably got many more OVER bets and might have needed the UNDER for a good amount, and add the juice. What players did they have to beat? The public that wants to bet over!

The places that put up a 10 might have pushed the PUBLIC players to the other stores kind of like avoiding the action. They might have taken some of the SHARP PLAYERS UNDER money. They might have needed the OVER in the game. And what players did they need to beat? SHARP PLAYERS

And who would want to chase away bets from players who just want to bet an all-star game? These are the players all bookies want to have, but then most of these books will try to get the most out of them (higher lines/more juice)

Trying to be sharp with the public is overrated and NOT NEEDED. It could be hurting books you more than you think.