What is wrong with this scenario?

[bbuster]

hi

[This message has been edited by bbuster (edited 07-10-2000).]

[bucky]

Hey good thread. I agree with craps and blackjack-risk reward etc. I charted NFL football for 3 years and found 3-7 point "home team" underdogs had a 58% win ratio. I know you had to have enough guts to do it every time and you won't get rich on 58%
What about using home team underdogs +130 to +170? Do the scientific #'s hold up to actual play? We need the odds on all the games so far and the results. You may need 3 or 4 progressions as 3 or 4 games may go off at the same time.
I write the line down everyday and the scores are easy to find. It just takes a little time.
Would it be effective to chart the over/unders and get on a team covering 3 times in a row, etc.?

[This message has been edited by bucky (edited 07-11-2000).]

[auspice]

to pay2play: i'm curious....how did you come up with a 43%win rate for a +130 dog..
(not that i doubt you at all)....and where would you get the statistical likelyhood of any other dog price to win.......just wanting to learn something.....

[AussieVamp2]

and as the wise sage Neverwentbrokitus said
"he who bets often with a negative expectation certainly won't be able to afford the latest PlayStation"

[SLAM DUNK]

Auspice, seems to me that a +130 dog would have a game line of -140/+130, thus the actual fair line is -135/+135 with no take. Thus to determine the the expected probability off the PUBLIC'S OPINION you would use the formula 100/(135+100) or
100/235 or 42.55%. According to others favorites tend to get overbet in baseball, so 43% sounds fairly accurate.

[bucky]

Survivor:
I think your idea has merit. Although a good Math teacher would tell you if a coin came up heads ten times in a row the odds are still 50/50 on the next throw.
I found 60 games from April 14 to July 3 but I had only 90% wrote down due to being away, etc. In this sampling against a 20 cent line this idea won 1497 and lost 550. 25 games won and 35 lost. Which came out to be +690/-700 on a level $20 bet.
It took 3 progressions due to simultaneous start times. Progression A lost 5 in a row once and 4 once. There are other progression theories we could use such as cancellation or D'Alembert or some type of ladder system that doesn't go up so fast. Of course, recordkeeping or getting scores and odds to do the model would be the key.
You know it would really bite to be in the last month of the year and go in the tank. But, I think you have a chance to get their $2,500 before they get yours.
I did it with craps for 6-7 Vegas trips and won the first 5 weekends and lost 2 burns of a 1,000 and stopped doing it. I pretty much gave back what I had won in the previous trips. That could happen here,too. When teams can see they are going nowwhere at the end of the year would be a good time to quit so I wouldn't start any progressions past September.
This might work in the NBA & NFL too on moneylines. Hey don't shoot me if this causes a burn but I am going to try to do a little more thorough research on the idea. Lots of luck and keep thinking of better ways to win.

[This message has been edited by bucky (edited 07-11-2000).]

[pay2play]

The simplest way to determine betting advantage against money lines is to multiply what you consider a team's percentage chance of winning to be against the American line +1, or the european quote straight. If using the American line, for negative (fave) numbers, use the reciprocal.
For example, if you think a team is 60% likely to win, and the money line is -115, you'd first divide 1 by 1.15 and get .869, add 1 to that for 1.869 (which is the European quote), multiply that by the .60 win rate you expect for your team, and get 1.12, which means a 12% advantage if you've handicapped correctly.
For the +130 example, .435 is the breakeven win rate 1/(1.3+1). Because I think with a little shopping the hold on bases dogs, if anything, is only 1%, then .99*.435=.43

[Lou_Covers_Com]

This is the first time I've turned on a computer in something like 3 months - and I'm already able to help somebody. Looks like my work's done till Christmas!

But seriously, for a handy little utility for figuring out lines and percentages, check out this link: http://covers.com/lou/utilities/linecal.html

This doesn't take into account the juice, mainly because of the different 10 and 20 cent lines out there. But it's still handy.

Sorry if this seems like a self-serving plug, but it IS on topic after all. I'm actually thinking of writing a new column real soon. Go figure.

[pay2play]

Covers is such a good sight you're doing people here a service plugging them.
"Bullpen Availability" is the nuts, as are the team by team ATS records for all sports. Between this place, your place, STATS and Bethelp I can get pretty much all I need.
My only wish is that you guys could get the next day's handicapping info up the night before.

[Lou_Covers_Com]

Thanks, man. I just wish I deserved more of the credit, but I don't.

I agree that the new Bullpen pages are insane. They are now the first pages I look at for MLB. I learned this after repeatedly spending whole days capping games, only to have the games completely change their complexion once I saw the Bullpen numbers.

I don't know if matchups will ever be available the night before (for baseball anyway), but the Boss did tell me that they were woking on a plan to get the pages up earlier in the mornings, if that's any help.

This will probably accompany a new-look, easier to navigate web site that the guys have been working on for a couple of months now, which should debut real soon.

It's been great for me. While they have been working their asses off on the new design, I broke 90 (with no mulligans) for the first time.

[Survivor]

zippy, I went through your numbers on my own and came out with a positive expectation. I used mlb dogs @ +130 who win 43% of the time. Can someone point out where I made the error please?


24.51% of the time, you値l lose the first bet and win the second, for a profit of $16. (-$10, +$26)

13.9707% of the time, you値l lose the first two bets and win the third, for a profit of $22. (-$10, -$20, +$52)

7.963299% of the time, you値l lose the first three bets and win the fourth, for a profit of $34. (-$10, -$20, -$40, +$104)

4.53908043% of the time, you値l lose the first four bets and win the fifth, for a profit of $58. (-$10, -$20, -$40, -$80, +$208)

2.587275845% of the time, you値l lose the first five bets and win the sixth, for a profit of $106. (-$10, -$20, -$40, -$80, -$160, +416)

1.474747232% of the time, you値l lose the first six bets and win the seventh, for a profit of $202. (-$10, -$20, -$40, -$80, -$160, -$320, +832)

.840605922% of the time, you値l lose the first seven bets and win the eighth, for a profit of $394. (-$10, -$20, -$40, -$80, -$160, -$320, -$640, +$1664)

.479145376% of the time, you値l lose the first eight bets, for a loss of $2560. (-$10, -$20, -$40, -$80, -$160, -$320, -$640, -$1280)

43% of +$13 = +$5.59
24.51% of +$16 = +$3.9216
13.9707% of +$22 = +$3.073554
7.963299% of +$34 = +$2.70752166
4.53908043% of +$58 = +$2.632666632
2.587275845% of +$106 = +$2.74
1.474747232% of +$202 = +$2.978
.840605922% of +$394 = +$3.31
.679616% of -$2560 = -$-17.40

Expected average result of each run is about +$6.24


[This message has been edited by Survivor (edited 07-11-2000).]

[zippy]

The error I see is your figure for the probability of losing all eight in a row. First you identify it as .479145376%. Then down below, you use .679616%. Actually, neither is correct. It should be 1.1142916%. (The probability of each loss is .57, so take .57 to the eighth power for eight losses in a row.)

If you plug that number in instead, I think you値l find that you値l finish slightly below even with this strategy, which is to be expected, since the break even point is 43.5%.

Again, neither this doubling progression system nor any other will save you if you池e betting against the odds. You might win with a system for betting certain baseball underdogs, but it値l be because those bets had a positive expectation to begin with; it値l have nothing to do with your ordering your wagers in this fashion.

[bucky]

We have to remember that the line these games go off at is not very scientific in relation to the two teams abilities. It comes down to how the players bet the games and the books move the numbers. So making projections based on the %'s of the final line would not be any more than 80% accurate. But if we could find a scientific line with no juice that could not be bet on we might be able to do some more scientific probability studies.
I say if a player had access to the opening lines for the past 5 years and the final scores there should be some betting scheme that would be effective more so than any other. That would be a large enough sampling so that it would not just be a fluke. Or at any rate a statistical whiz could compare his probabilities to actual results.

[krackman]

Lou,
I am a New Yorker who misses your take on life in your articles please ! Get back into the groove soon....

[pay2play]

Bucky, you're talking about handicapping. The original question merely referred to a betting progression.