Baseball Injury Plays

[reno]

In the "Other Forum," Kelvinator postulated that "baseball injury plays aren't worth it." He then provided some ridiculous, statistics to back his assertion.

According to my research, if a top player is out of the line-up, and replaced by an average major-league player, the line should adjust anywhere from 10 to 20 cents.

Bill James, indirectly, corroborates my findings. The renowned sabermetrician gives an offensive winning percentage to each major league player. Top players can have a winning percentage over .750. In other words, if a team had 9 hitters with a .750 winning percentage in the line-up, everything else being equal, they would win 75% of their games. To figure out how much one such player is worth, divide the extra 25% by 9 and the result is that the player is worth 2.78%. 52.78% on the moneyline equals -112, or 12 cents. Super players with offensive winning percentages over .800 can be worth 20 cents.

Jim Jasper, my baseball handicapping guru, also believed that a top everyday player is worth 15 to 20 cents. This can be ascertained by computing how many extra runs per game, on the average, they are worth to their team. Most players believe that a run is worth approximately 50-cents on the moneyline. A run is worth roughly 50 cents because, historically, 1/3 of all major league games are one-run games. So, if a .500 team gets an extra run every game, instead of going a predicted 27-27 in the 1/3 of 162 games the play, they would instead go 27-0 with 27 pushes. Deduct 27 losses,and their record would be 81-54 = .600 = -150 on the moneyline.

In fact, even according to Kelvinator's hairbrained "logic" that deducts .2 runs per game from a team missing a superstar, the line should still adjust 10 cents, based on the fact that a full run is worth approximately 50 cents.

And while I'm at it, I'll take a shot at the Shrink's "logic." (Remember, no one said he was a brain surgeon.) The good Doctor recently wondered why the betting line was not sufficiently adjusting for the Colorado Rockies at home. After all, the Rockies had a great home-winning percentage. Well, the answer is simple: No matter how well or poorly a team does at home in baseball, the most accurate prediction for their future home-field performance is the league average, which is always worth around 4 to 5 % more than a neutral field. If someone does the research, like I have, they will no longer bother with home field advantages for specific teams. Instead, they will use the league average.

People need to DO the math, not merely theorize. For example, I have a real penchant for well-built women. I really dig chicks with wasp waists and big racks. But even if I see a chick that is built like--pardon the expression--a brick shlthouse, I don't accept what my eyes tell me unless I can substantiate it with a tape measure.

So, everywhere I went in the Caribbean and in Asia, I carried around my trusty tape measure, as I searched for the Holy Grail, women with 36-24-36-type statistics.

In fact, once I was in Hollywood, at the Bodhi Tree Bookstore. And who did I see there? Pamela Anderson! Unfortunately, Tommy Lee was with her. Talk about a party pooper. The guy did not appreciate it one bit when I asked Pam if I could measure her with my trusty tape. Needless to say, when I returned home, I trashed all of my Motley Crue records.

Anyway, the moral of the story is: do the math unless you are risking your health because of a jerk like Tommy Lee.

[Kelvin]

Well Reno , that is the beauty of having differing opinions. You and I have many.

1 I do not think I am god

2 I think paying for sex and writing about is something a 17 year old should do.

3 I think a player that is average and is out of the line up means very little. I did say average.

Best regards

Kelvin

[reno]

Kelvin, opinions are like *******s. Everyone has one. Mathematical statistical facts either support or contradict opinions. Obviously, if an average player is out of the line-up it means nothing, and you won't see the Don Best lines change, either.

I do not think I'm god, and I never said I was. I'm simply your average lecherous old fart who enjoys Haagen Dazs, Johnny Walker Black Label, and eeking out a bare living via baseball scalping.

Even my own sister has claimed that I have the maturity level of a 16-year old. Therefore, I take the fact that you consider my behavior to that of a 17-year as a compliment. Hell, I'm embarrased to walk around in shorts that traverse my knees, wear a backward baseball cap, and call everyone "dude." But if that is what it take to meet foreign teeny boppers, I do it.

Hell, I'm so socially retarded, I could probably use a therapy session with the "Shrink. What does he charge per hour?

[Kelvin]

Well I am not sure what he charges but if he charges what he pays you should find some tremendous value there LOL.

By the way did I mention that I as well would be considered in the same age group.

You are correct, my stats were not proven stats and the post was written as an aside and calculated quite rapidly. I remember that it was an average player being out and the line seemed to move forever. The player was a Joe Shmo and the line should not have reacted in that fashion.

I do however remember making many plays on "no Piazza" or "no Pudge" and I also remember them pinch hitting in the ninth to take the money. The post was along the lines of taking caution when playing an injury as to who it is that is not playing and are they injured or just sitting down for the night.

Kelvin

[Ronbets]

First of all, Im not taking sides here because neither one of you hedonists pay my bills when I lose and thats about 45% of the time.

The "out of the lineup" scenario is over rated. The Koshers are famous for sitting on the ticker and waiting for the starting lineups. These BTW are far from accurate. They are ****ed and loaded to blast away at the "no Piazza" or "no Nomar". They perceive going against these teams a great value. A late injury yes. Most other reasons NO.

I ve got stats on most key players vs any active pitcher. Most managers have the same basic stats. Lets go with hypothetical situation. SF Giants post lineups with "no Barry Bonds". Certain leftys give BB fits and one is pitching here. SF might be a stronger "go against" with BB in the lineup. He might even have begged out of the game under the guise of "resting". BB might serve the GTS better as a late inning pinch hitter. The trade off "no starting Bonds" vs longtime nemesis is minimal. Play against the move for value.

[Fred]

Reno

Have your own computer bases plays started? how they doing?

Also, how do you rate the season so far in terms of line movement and variety compared with seasons past?

Cheers

[reno]

Fred, the computer plays that I was planning on betting have done great, with one caveat: I'm no longer getting them. My partner and I separated, and he hasn't been giving them to me.

In terms of line movement, this year is poor compared to the previous two seasons. And now that the Pokers have apparently quit, it could get really stagnant.

Ronbets, you make some valid points. That is why each situation is unique. For example, Larry Walker is an important player. But if he sits out against Randy Johnson, big deal.
However, if he has a calf injury and can't play against a righty he normally scorches, it definitely calls for a major line adjustment.

[Fred]

Reno

Were the previous two seasons exceptional in terms of movement?

Would this year's line variety be less than 'average' if you compared, say, the last 10 years? Much less? About the same?

[Squirming For Action]

Last year's baseball moves were incredible as you were seeing quite a few games move huge amounts with what appeared to be no buy backs.

[Investment Exec]

Clay Davenport gives a breakdown of what a player is worth over a average player in terms of runs here.. www.baseballprospectus.com/current/equ.html

but what is worth more--

a alert of bonds out of the lineup vs a starter like Karl or a closer like Trevor Hoffman who has pitched 3 conseuctive days w/ pitch counts of say 17,29,28..not announced..

is the first 1/2 run of approx 50 cents and 2nd 1/2 run of approx 74 cents and so on worth the same in Coors Field as it is in Safeco?

just wondering..

[reno]

Fred, the advent of the Internet and the proliferation of offshore books has changed everything in sportsbetting. That's why comparisons between the post-Internet and pre-Internet eras are difficult and, to my mind, irrelevant. In fact, I was entirely out of the sportsbetting loop between 1992 and 1997. I was, instead, actively involved in a "straight-world" business. So, I can't speak for those years. I came back because the Internet and emerging offshore sportsbetting industry made it possible for someone like me to succeed as a one-man operation.

[reno]

Investment Exec, you bring up a good point. Higher scoring games mean less one-run games and, hence, less value for a run.

For example, in the National League over the past 2 seasons, approximately 30% of all games were one-run games. And in the American League, which is higher scoring, only 27% of games were decided by a run. Consequently, a run is actually now worth closer to 40-cents than it is 50-cents.

[Unregistered]

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