is there a SCALP available for the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

[OLD MAN]

VC HAS BUSH -150 GORE +110
OLY HAS GORE-130 BUSH -110

[Shawn]

Canbet has Gore +126.

I currently have Bush +140 at VC (played the day before "Super Tuesday").

[Rich]

I figuered i'd post on this subject because
in addition to sports handicapping I also
"handicap" political races as a hobby and
consider myself fairly knowledgable in predicting winners of various senate races
and electoral collage tallies presidential
elections (in 1996 missed only state Colorado
which went for Dole not Clinton). Any way I
believe Al Gore to be about a 4 or 5 to 1
favorite to win and here's why.

First forget the issues whether one likes him or not is meaningless in predivting the outcome but demographics and past and current
trends are.

1. Al Gore as a sitting VP is almost tied with Bush since modern polling all Vice presidents running for the white house were
behind in pre convention polling including
bush's father by double didget margins it is
almost a given that until the race is taken
seriously by the public (debates and convention) the VP struggles.
2. Almost everything wrong possable has happened to the Gore campaign management
problems silly stumbles over internet and
"love story" credit and so on while Bush has
basically been given a free ride. The media
in crunch time will be a lot tougher on Bush.
remember
3. Debates - Gore has won just about every
major debate he's ever been in with a corresponding bounce in polls--Nafta -- vs
Kemp and Quale
4 Gore gets the "home advavantage" of going last in the convention and picking his running mate 2nd . Most political anylist I've talked too believe Gore will take the
lead after the august convention and never
look back as the last 2 months will be nothing but an ad war where not much poll movemnt takes place until debates which should but the race away for him.

just my two scence worth but in appeciation
for my opinion after you guys get down on
it ( if you follow my advice I'd appreciate
you let me know the best Price you can find on Gore who is my "value bet of the year"

[Ronbets]

Rich,
Very interesting take on this Prez election. I hope you get followers because I like the other side. However, your rationale is good for your side.

Whats your current take on HRC and Lazio?---Thanks, Ron

[Rich]

yeah good lines a plenty for the election but
what sucks is your moneys tied up for so long it would be great to bet/scalp on credi.....

As for Lazio, Clinton this one is a true
toss up Actually I believe Hillary would have
beaten Guliani in part because of a huge
minority vote aginst the mayor.

Right now everything but one favors Lazio
Well liked, tied in polls agaist a well known
figure who hasn't polled above 45% against
anyone. The key to this race is how well
Hillary's campaign make s the arguement about
is Lazio jsut another Rpublican vote for Trent Lott and Jesse Helms. Gore will win NY
by over a million votes but although she has
the issues and the demographics you just can't make any candidate a favorite with such high negatives. I say take the dog in this race who ever it is .

This one's 3am special with a recount gun to
my head though... Hillary wins- the Gore
coatials,and huge instrinsic advatages in
non-republican leaning election cycles(1980,
1994) pull her through

[WsP]

WWTS has Gore +145

[Rich]

thnx a trusted book too----

[Rich]

just a thought---

Carib had gore at +150 the best ive seen yet
but had others at 150-1

What would happen if Bush or/and Gore had
to withdraw for health reasons or if god forbid they were killed?

[AussieVamp2]

killing is pretty extreme match fixing, isn't it?

[Ronbets]

Rich, This isnt a Caliente Kentucky Derby future. NO ACTION.

[rabbit]

Very nice analysis by Rich. I also believe Gore to be an outstanding value. Consider this: Most of those voting with their $$$ at the sportsbooks fall squarely into the white male category, which is Dubya's main constituency. Thus he is considerably overpriced, and will remain so at least until the Dem's convention.

[Rich]

RABBIT well said I remember in 96 when
the internet was just starting to really get
BIG all the online polls has Dole winning with ridiculous percentages and Harry Browne
the libertarian candidate with numbers vastly
diiferent than the one percent evetually
recieved.

The internet and even more sports betting is
generally a uppermiddle class white sububan
male audiance... hey that sounds familiar
that's the base of the Republican party.

Maybe moron Kyl should rconsider

Anyway that could be the reason for the huge
overlay I remember in 96 Mike Caro a noted
gambling expert put odds up at about 50-50
for the dole/clinton race constantly writing
in cardplayer magazine how the polls had it all wrong when realistically the only way
Dole could have won is if they they had Clinton on tape killing somebody. "It's the
freinds theory" Everyone they know is voting
for so and so.... so how can't he win. The
truth is that a Democrat can easily win races
with less than 30% of the upper middle class
Cristian white guys.

[The Guesser]

Carib has Gore +150
Bowmans has Bush E

Happy Scalping

FYI, SIA is the only Book I'e seen thus far with a Hillary- Lazio Line
Hillary -130
Lazio E

[Ronbets]

Thanks Guesser for the Hillary line info. Thats the first line I ve seen up.

[Phil]

Guys- great thread and RIch - hell of an anaylsis. I too am a US political junkie but certainly with not with the same experience. Plus hell i'm canadian so maybe that should disqualify me right of the bat.

I love Gore as well if for no other reason than the economy. Shades of Clinton's words in 92 to Buch. "it's the economy stupid" As long as the expansion keeps rolling along and there is no stock market crash, Gore looks real good.

It really is too bad Vegas can't put lines up on these things cause making bets on all the different senate and house races would be great and fun and would make november really bloody exciting.

I wonder if there's any underground betting amongs the political insiders and journalists for any SIGNIFICANT dollars?

Only one prob with this action is of course as you guys say, tieing up the money for so long.