Run Line Formula for AV2

[Ronbets]

Ok AV2 Im back. I need some semblance of a social life. Posting new thread because I couldnt get in old. The Basic Formula.

Use 205 (1.5 run swing)
Sub 130 Clemens top #
-------------------------
Mets +1.5 runs -175
Yks -1.5 runs +155
_________________________

Visiting Favorite
Use 170 (1.5 run swing)
Sub 130 Stephson top #
-------------------------
Det +1.5 runs -140
StL -1.5 runs +120
_________________________

The 35cent home team bias for last ab, extra inning sudden death. This formula brings you to a starting #. Shade accordingly.

These lines are 20cents until 190 therefore you wont see the wild movement. But they do move.

[AussieVamp2]

Great

Exactly what I was looking for

thanks!

[wintermute]

AV2:

Here are some numbers from my database - should be self-explanatory.

Visiting favourite wins by 1 run

7.00 44 273 16.12
7.50 53 372 14.25
8.00 74 657 11.26
8.50 120 865 13.87
9.00 89 808 11.01
9.50 66 577 11.44
10.00 60 519 11.56
10.50 45 415 10.84
11.00 25 248 10.08

Home favourite wins by 1 run

7.00 141 739 19.08
7.50 235 1119 21.00
8.00 344 1635 21.04
8.50 397 2118 18.74
9.00 297 1699 17.48
9.50 200 1235 16.19
10.00 213 1245 17.11
10.50 144 851 16.92
11.00 84 542 15.50

A favourite is defined as any game with a money line less than -105.

As you can see, pct decreases with increasing total and home numbers are much larger than away numbers.

Due to the fact that the sample sizes are pretty small, don't read too much into the variation from one line to the next.

You can use these numbers to relate the return on money lines to the return on run lines. I'll try and post more later.


Ronbets:

You've obviously travelled down the same road I have. Talk about giving away the store.

'mute

[AussieVamp2]

'mute

yep

thanks for delving into the databanks

[AussieVamp2]

have a reasonable feel at guessing that sort of stuff, and it does seem to make a certain sense anyway

[Ronbets]

wintermute,

I just threw the ingredients out there. The recipe is in the second to last paragraph.

pay2play make a statement that kind of made me look in the mirror. Something to the effect of share not flame. I ll try somewhere in the middle.--Ron

[Jeff]

[AussieVamp2]

There is nothing new anymore Jeff?

[j]

Could anyone spell out Ronbets numbers and wintermute's tables for me? It's not clear to me what "Use" and "Sub" mean, nor what the three right hand columns represent.

[Dragon]

Here is a chart from the other thread on this subject. Should help. Wintermutes numbers, column 1 is the total on the game. 2nd column is the number of times the favorite won by 1 run. 3rd column is the number of times that total was posted on a game. 4th column is the percentage of favorites winning one run games at that total. So the 1st row is saying that when the total was 7, the visiting favorite won by 1 run 16.12% of the time.

Home teams

-200 = -1.5 -105
-190 = -1.5 100
-180 = -1.5 +105
-170 = -1.5 +110
-160 = -1.5 +120
-150 = -1.5 +130
-140 = -1.5 +140
-130 = -1.5 +150
-120 = -1.5 +160
-110 = -1.5 +170

Away teams

-200 = -1.5=-130
-190 = -1.5=-125
-180 = -1.5=-120
-170 = -1.5=-115
-160 = -1.5=-110
-150 = -1.5= 100
-140 = -1.5=+110
-130 = -1.5=+120
-120 = -1.5=+130
-110 = -1.5=+135

Add or subtract 20 cents for the dog runline.

[j]

Dragon,

Thanks for your excellent memory. That helps.