Boomer's math problem

[AussieVamp2]

so as the sagely Ronbets suggests

it seems that road favorites win by 1 run less than home favorites do
around 18% on average for home for this lot, all totals, to a bit over 12 for the road favorites.....

[AussieVamp2]

mute,

any comments on the relative frequencies from there, from your large AI datastore?

i.e. for the ones with reasonable numbers - are 8 and 11 just a glitch, or are there some longer term differences?

[Ronbets]

Good job AV2. I dont think these guys want to try reverse middles with this game. You lose both sides and you get mighty seasick.

[AussieVamp2]

Reverses middles pretty nasty at 13% as an estimate, about break even on 30cent 'scalp' there I guess

at 18% - ouch!

[AussieVamp2]

and this brings up something interesting

these are from Olympic

bit of a home/road difference here in runline moneyline

6:05 pm Pitchers RunLine Total MoneyLn
903 New York Mets A Leiter -L -180 -125 +110
904 New York Yankees R Clemens -R -1½ +160 8 +105 -130


6:05 pm Pitchers RunLine Total MoneyLn
907 St Louis Cardinals Stephenson -R -1½ +125 9½ -105 -130
908 Detroit Tigers J Weaver -R -145 -115 +110

[AussieVamp2]

for those that know, is there a standard vegas formula/relation for these, or do the bookies set them as they see fit?

[AussieVamp2]

and as a general note, do runlines vary whackily with baseball line moves, or not?

not that I have a clone that can stay awake all night to look at it, but just a general question

thanks

[reno]

Home favorites are going to win more 1-run games because home favorites, on the average, are higher favorites than road favorites. Consequently, because they win more games overall, they will also win more 1-run games. Also, in a tie game, as soon as the home team scores a run in the bottom of the 9th or in extra innings, the game ends. That is the second reason home teams win more 1-run games.

Regarding 1-run games, historically, approximately one-third of all baseball games have been won by a single run. The last season I checked, 1998, 28% of all games were decided by a run. Because baseball games are now higher scoring, I would guess that there are now less 1-run games, and therfore a run is not worth what it used to be. A team plays 162 games. 28% of 162 is 45 games. If a .500 team (81-81) won every 1-run game instead of splitting them, their record would be 103.5/58.5 =64,0%. 64.0% is equal to -178 on the moneyline.