? FOR MIDDLERS

[Ronbets]

Whats your policy when you have the # go against you? Example--Today you layed 4.5 with the Lakers. Expecting the public to push it up you sit long. Come Saturday Shaq is out and Portland becomes the favorite. I know you guys hate to gamble--now what??--Ron

[thedevil]

Ronbets \

If everything went in your favor all the time there would be no books.

Option 1) Stay with your position.
Option 2) Pray.

Some days you get the chicken other days you get the feathers.

THE DEVIL

[Bob]

Option 3) Buy points and accept your loss.

[ajax50]

This is a good topic and applies to all sports bettinr not just middlers.If you take a number and it moves into you do what you can to get off that number.Easier said than done. If you are lucky enough to catch a book napping or you have an out with slow numbers,bail out.If you are a screen watcher as I am than you get a feel for the way numbers move or drift.This a numbers game and it is better to sacrifice juice than be lazy and hope your bad number doesnt come into play.Take the best number you possibly can.Don bests line history is invaluable.

[Jeff]

This is an excellent topic and like ajax said applies across the board.

Most middlers have probably learned their lessons as far as taking leads on games. After you're burned a few times, enough is enough.

But Ajax brings up another great point. The handicapper. The true player. Most true players HATE steam. Nothing worse than shopping hard all day for a number, waiting as long as you can to make the play, only to have the game get hammered after you play it.

Sure, it's nice if the play moves the same way you played it, and you're sitting with the best of it. But what about when it moves against you after you played it? Some guys will play again at the better number. Others will take their lumps with the bad number.......who's right?

[reno]

In baseball, because I take leads, I sometimes get whiplashed and end up with a negative scalp. It actually hapened to me today on the Cubs game that got rained out today. I layed -120 on LA for 7 dimes, and then got antsy and took +122 for 5 dimes. However, I ended up getting off the last two dimes at + 115, a 5-cent negative. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Basketball is different. Nothing is worse than getting a polish (or reverse) middle. If you lay 3 and 1/2 and take 2 and 1/2, and the favorite wins by 3, you lose both sides and will need a deep colonic irrigation to remove all of the sh1t you will feel inside.

If you're going to middle, you had better keep a close watch on the Don Best screen at all times, and get your ass off a game quick if it starts to steam the other way. If I got stuck with a polish middle--which isn't going to happen to me--I'd look to do something on the half-time line to remove or lessen my risk.

[sportshobby]

For the pure handicapper/player who is confident, the answer is easy. If the line moves the way you bet it, you smile and pat yourself on the back for taking good value. If it moves the other way, you just go get some more.

[ajax50]

Watching the screen is a full time job.As Jeff said earlier,I could definately live without steam.When the big movers are on the sidelines much more often than not I get the best of the number and let the line drop. Sometimes its advantageous to play a game at 10:30 am est while other times Im calling cris at 7:06est hoping they take my play when they flash a great buyback number at post.Nothing could be more annoying to a baseball bettor than seeing a number on the screen and not being able to get it.

[joseph]

This is a fascinating topic,whether the number moves with you,or away.I think many player/handicappers would middle a piece, if the chance arose,while most middlers would shy away from being too heavy on one side,simply because this is not the way they make their living.Why fix something that's not broke sort of thing.....Wednesday I bet 2 dimes on the Dodgers -42 at about 11AM.At 2:20 I am sitting in the sun at Belmont,make a call,and learn the line is now at -72!Do you bet two dimes on the Cubs,risk nothing,and hope they win and collect $400.?Do you do nothing, feeling you have the best of it? Something in between?I don't know if there is a perfect answer.Any thoughts?

[Kelvin]

A wise man once told me that there is a point at which playing the game instead of scalping the game is much more valuable, depending on your edge.

What he means is this.... if you were to get a number like you say, Dodgers -42 and the current line is -75 ,should you play or should you scalp?

I personally feel it is of the utmost importance to know why the line jumped. Was it Poker? Was it Kosher?Was it the public? Or was it an injury? . A truly profitable scalper asks himself these questions all day long. Why , Who and where will it end up?

So the moral of this story is simple. If you lay 40 on a game that moves to 80 because of a winning player betting it. It is then more valuable to sit with your whole position. HOWEVER if you lay 40 on a game that moves to 60 ,there is more value scalping it.

Get it?

Kelvin

[joseph]

Kelvin, I get it,I'm just not sure how to do it.Grace and Rodriguez didn't play,but that was common knowledge for the very long time that the line was -42.I doubt the public moved the line thirty cents in a fairly short period of time,so I imagine it was a well respected group.Whether it was the Pokers or Koshers,how would you know which,and why would it make a difference?...Thanks,joseph

[Kelvin]

Well Joseph, knowledge of who is on what, is difficult to aquire quickly if you are not in the "loop". I suspect what happened in your case were line up revisions Joseph. That is a completely different story. The business of scalping whether it be the markets or gaming is a very difficult one primarily because of the true dedication one must have to the business. The answer to the question at the top of the thread is quite simple really. It is irrelevant. If you as a scalper are doing your job properly you will never (there are exceptions to every rule of course) let this happen. I have never gone out to lunch with a guy who is holding 100,000 minus three on a game and has no workers! The reason is this, you must be ever present for the chance of injury , weather(if it is a total) or syndicate moves. If you are holding a number that is common say -50 and the line is 50 then you will not last in the business. Rule of thumb is 85% of leads taken by a scalper must turn out accurate in order to earn. This is next to impossible to achieve unless of course you are the originator LOL.That is why most scaplers wait till the game moves and rarely take leads. One of the best scalpers I know never had an original thought in his life. Thats what makes him so good. Follow, follow,follow

Kelvin

[ajax50]

My response would be that if you laid -42 and the right line is now -72,I would sit and only middle off if I got an overinflated number on the dog.If the "right" line is 72 I need a store to have 78 on the dog for me to play.5 cents off or more from the right line is like playing the line "man to man" or no vig. What is the right line is the next question. For me it is one or more screen stores who I respect and give little or no action to. The more a store is off from the right number the more I play and the more my decision is.

[Ronbets]

Middlers are theoretically liaisons between 2 or more offices. As for the hardcore mid/scalpers, the BMs like the action but consider you an honorable 2nd class citizen(them not me). IN casino terms you d be rated as a "dont" player with low risk exposure per roll. A tough player.

An old sage(REALITY) came through here a few weeks back and offered some good advice on mid/sclpg. "Bet the slow out that pay and play the sharp outs 67% the back side to cover vig. Great advice, but might be a little self serving. Eventually sharp stores bury slow outs! This leads to slow/no pay or shut offs. Hell, DowChem filed BK.

WELL FUNDED players are better off just playing slow outs, thus becoming a follower at CLOSE to the original order. Diluting bad #s by mid/sclpg makes you a low paid messenger for sharp outs with the immense liability that goes with it.

sportshobby--that theory you use is all well and good, but with the example I gave, I doubt you d want to double pop the Lakers sans Shaq.

ajax50--I like you style. I use similar concepts.

reno--the game works for you because of all the hard work and the vast #s you see. Not to mention a magna cum laude degree from Sam Brown University.

Kelvin--welcome to the other side of the tracks. Your keen insight is usually astute. However, you didnt answer my ? Its not irrelevant IT HAPPENS. You wouldnt take a lead with 1.5pts the best of it?? I was presuming God didnt know Shaq would be a late scratch.

thedevil--sounds like you are 10 not minus 11. That doesnt make you a bad guy either.

[Kelvin]

Yes Ronbets, of course I would take that lead. I would also be sitting in front of the Don Best Screen protecting my lead.
If this happened , which is quite common btw ,whether it be an injury or wise guy play. You try your heart out to juice yourself off the game. Whatever is left is left, sit and pout. (I generally would become quite verbose at that point , trying to blame everybody but myself.LOL)

Thanks for the welcome Ronbets
Kelvin