Beyond Probability

[Ronbets]

Slots,
What makes you so sure when the Sun Coast opens the partys over for the Regent? You guys must remember this is a local joint, not a mega strip hotel. Havent you had your fill with the money sweating Coast properties? Anyway, the food is excellent at the Regent(formerly resort
at summrln).
The practice of floormen relieving dealers is common in local casinos. Where have you been?

[reno]

Alec, baseball scalping is easy to understand. Because baseball is bet on a moneyline, all you have to do is bet the underdog at a plus that is higher than the minus on the favorite. The moneyline in baseball works just like the moneyline in boxing.

Randyrohm, I constantly transfer money among sportsbooks. It is great for the bettors and the books. If I couldn't do transfers, it would cut my profits and make my job harder. I often bet between 5 to 10 dimes a pop at a few big sportsbooks. Then, I bet the other side at two or more smaller books.

And by the way, Randy, you still owe me a drink at the MGM (or elsewhere) when you come to Vegas. When you're ready to come, get my e-mail address from Jeff at Bettorsworld.

[alec]

reno,
I probably did not make myself clear.
Obviously, I understand what baseball line looks like and that in notation used in America it is easy to see weather scalping is possible for a given match.
I asked you if you scalp events with more than two possible outcomes, like soccer matches for example.
If so, I do not understand how you can do this without using any calculations.

[ShiftySheik]

Soccer would be really tough to scalp unless you find a huge line difference. Has anyone here ever scalped a soccer game? I've scalped fights using 1 book with a 3 way line. When you get get 25-1 or so on draw it makes it easy to cover your bet.

[sportshobby]

Almost never even looking for a scalp, I was watching the screen for play to develop today when I spotted one. Remembering everything Reno had taught me in this thread, I went to work as fast as I could. Played one side, then went for the other. And before I could get the second confirmed, the dreadful screen read: wager not accepted, game already started.

But the mythical powers are on my side since I'm not normally a scalper/middler. I won the first wager.

[j]

Here's a question for scalpers.

Do you wait to find line variances and then jump in? Or, do you bet certain dogs in anticipation of late movement? I suspect you do both, but I guess I'm wondering what proportions of your plays are what kind.

Also: Is scalping all you do? Or do you sometimes play sides?

[reno]

Alec, sure you can. You simply, as ShiftySheik pointed out, have to also bet the draw, so you don't end up with a Polish middle if the game falls a tie.

[reno]

j, why not do it all and maximize your profit potential? The majority of a pro scalper's scalps, however, come on "steam" games. The more chaos in the line, the greater the opportunity for scalping.

I am betting a computer-program baseball system that a friend and his associate have worked on for 3 years. The system does not really kick in until the end of May. I'll let everyone know how it does. The last 4 years it hit 52.6% at a +117 take.

The Poker Players also play a computer system. From what I've heard, their bets are based on a highly sophisticated computer simulation program designed by a genius. The reason they lost at the beginning of the season was a glitch in the program. Now that it has supposedly been corrected, they will probably start burying the books again.

[ShiftySheik]

j, Sometimes I'll take a position and anticipate further line movement as long as I can cover my bet for no gain/loss at one or more shops. I'll only do that if my money is spread out among several books. If you don't get down early, someone else will takeout the line. Except for scalping, I rarely bet baseball sides. I might bet a baseball total if I can get an extra half run on 7 or 9. I'm no handicapper, I look for line value.

[alec]

reno,
I give up. It is my English or I don't know what.
I did not ask for advice. I know this stuff pretty well.
All I asked was: do you scalp events with more than two possible outcomes. And if you do, then you have to agree that you need to do calculations and to use those formulas.
I am sorry about the confusion.

[AussieVamp2]

Sheikh,

Yeah, lots of us have scalped soccer games, but it happens more on european cup games in early rounds and internationals with national bias.

However, if you are talking big scalps, it would be the Asians setting it up so they can bet their handicap line, and take back the other side by betting into a 3-way in Europe.

[reno]

Alec, right now I only scalp baseball. I have scalped boxing matches where I also have to bet the draw along with both sides. In cases like that it is necessary to do the calculations that you talk about.