Beyond Probability

[reno]

I used to consider myself to be a rational, or at least reasonable, person. But that is history. I am now a firm believer in curses. And, truth be told, I believe that I am cursed. The last nine times that I have mistakenly been a nickel or more heavy on a side on a game that I am scalping, I have lost the side I had more money on. The fact is, I just started keeping careful records of games I am heavy on this season, and it has substantiated what I have always known--that when you're heavy, the odds are strong that you'll lose money because of your mistake. It is the Universe's way of punishing you for screwing up. That may not sound logical, but logic, as far as I'm concerned, does not explain this disturbing phenonomenon.

[alec]

reno,
Just out of curiosity, during what period of time did you make those nine mistakes?

[Hamhog]

Reno,

Why don't you start a tout service selling the games you are heavy on.

[reno]

This baseball season, and more specifically, within the last two to three weeks. I made two today. I was a nickel heavy on St. Louis, and a nickel heavy on the Seattle Mariners under. And the Mariners total was a bad beat. I was sitting in the sportsbook at the Resort at Summerlin--which by the way sucks as a venue for watching games--when I realized I was a nickel heavy on the Mariners under. At the time of my realization the score was 2-0 Angels at the end of the 7th inning. So I was sure that I'd finally catch a break. But it wasn't meant to be. Much of my scalping profit went down the tubes today because of the two mistakes,and an otherwise good day became a crummy one.

I make a lot of mistakes because I'm already taking other games before I even write down what I just bet. I also hit some games so many times that I make mistakes adding up what I got. I get careless and figure that being heavy will balance out in the long run. But that is obviously a pipe dream. Also, I've been shut out on one side at post time a few times. Starting tomorrow, I will dedicate myself to being balanced.

[chestrockwells]

It's a bit late in the evening for statistics but I would suspect that on totals it would make no difference in the long run if you've overbet on one side or the other. On sides, in the long run it would be the same but for mental health reasons I'd suspect that you wouldn't want to overbet the dog right? My mind suddenly went to musch so I'm not sure.

[Bette Midler]

Reno...

I'm surprised that a world class scalper would put himself in the position of being heavy on any game. I will always meticulously do the math before I open a position, so that when I close it out I also know exactly, to the penny, where I need to be. Sometimes I will even lose a scalping opportunity because I took an extra minute or two to calculate my needed position on both sides of a play, but I'd rather lose that opportunity than to lose a game based on an unwanted position.

I also like to avoid crunch times as a game nears its scheduled start. Lines become so much more volatile, and I like to leave a time window available for technical glitches such as phone or computer problems. The few times I would push the envelop with start times have been hair raising experiences and it usually takes the wind out of my sails for the remainder of the day as I try to bring my heart rate back to normal. I gather you've had a few days like that in your career.

[Cons]

Deja vu... last three times I did the same, the heavy side lost each time.

[thedevil]

Reno!!!

I think the problem stems back to 10778 B.C.

Back on Mt. Olympis the God of the Books waged a war with the God of the Scalpers/Middlers. It appears the God of the Scalpers/Middlers was taking honey from the God of the Books flower garden.

The G of t B's, being stronger and also the rule maker, barred G of t S/M from his garden. G of t S/M didn't care for that idea so he went to the God of the Clones. After the God of the Clones was finished, the G of t S/M now had millions of scalper/middlers to infiltrate the G of t B's offices to steal his honey. This went on until( and please don't quote me on the date) until 10522 B.C. At that time G of t B'S made the acquaintance of a certain magician called Merlin (notice in this case we won't reveal his last name) who cast a spell on all scalper/middlers. So now anytime a scalper/middler makes a mistake and plays too much on one side the excess money goes into a pool at the G of t B's main office and is tallied. the side with the most money loses all of the time. It's that simple. But the God of the Clones had done such a wonderful job in creating so many scalper/middlers not all of them lost every game and in truth until this posting were none the wiser that this was actually happening.

Now that I've let the cat out of the bag the G of t S/M will try to do something to rectify what has been going on for thousands of years. You know I'm telling the truth as I'm one of the few that saw it happen first hand..

THE DEVIL

P.S. You can look it up... Library of Congress Book # C1355667 Title: BOOK MYTHOLOGY


[This message has been edited by thedevil (edited 05-06-2000).]

[This message has been edited by thedevil (edited 05-06-2000).]

[sportshobby]

Devil/Reno, you guys really crack me up. I always enjoy the Bettorsworld funny paper.

The really funny thing was hearing Reno sweat being a little bit out of balance. Books would love to be this close, and players can't even dream of being in such a relaxed position.

I'm normally disciplined on wager amounts, however. But yesterday I saw a bad number after I'd bet, and just added another 20% to the wager without ever looking back.

It's no wonder guys separate themselves in groups at the dinner table.

[OLD MAN]

RENO
BACK IN THE 80'S, HUEY MAHL(NOW DECEASED)
SENT ME THE MATHEMATICAL FORMULA FOR
SCALPING-YOU MUST KNOW IT-PLEASE PUBLISH IT,
IF YOU CAN...THANKS
BTW, I UNDERSTAND THAT HAAGEN-DAZS IS
CONSIDERING MOVING THEIR ICE CREAM PRODUCING
FACILITIES TO EITHER BELIZE OR COSTA RICA.

[Squirming For Action]

Reno, you need to catch up on your reading of Milan Kundera and gain some perspective.

[reno]

thedevil, I love mythology. When logic fails, mythology has the answer.

Squirming For Action, I have never heard of Milan Kundera. What kind of books does he write?

OLD MAN, someone else may have access to Huey Mahl's material on dividing scalps. I never felt any need. When I scalp, I either leave it all on the dog, or divide it in hundred dollar increments. For example, if I get a ten-dime scalp of -120 on the favorite and +125 on the dog, instead of leaving it all on dog and winning $500 if the dog comes in, I'll often lay the -120 for two extra dollars. Thus, I win 200 if the favorite comes in and 260 if the dog wins. Dividing scalps to the dollar is ridiculous if you're a serious scalper.

Bette Middler, another way I've often been heavy is by failing to confirm my bets when I bet them online. In my defense, however, I'm very rarely heavy for large amounts. I take more care when bets are for multiple dimes. Everyone has an achilles heel, and mine is careless errors on bets of a dime or less. Believe it or not, one of the biggest movers of money in sportsbetting never did books for years. Whatever figure someone gave him, be it a BM or runner, he would simply agree with it. He got ripped-off big-time, but eventually hired the right people to do his books, and he became a zillionaire.

[Groz]

THEDEVIL,

I wish you would finally finish writing your book. I can't wait to read it. Remember when you said that all of the people that you met in A.C. did not look like what you thought they would?
Having met you, I think you look absolutely terrific for your age. I didn't realize you were around in 10778 B.C. You have really preserved yourself well.

Take Care, my friend.

Best of Luck,
Groz

[Squirming For Action]

Reno,
I'll keep it brief, but figured with your philosophical bents you would have read Kundera, a Czech author who is best known for his book "The Unberabale Lightness of Being", but I would highly recommend any of his books if you want a perspective of charachters/peoples motives and thoughts, perhaps "The Joke" would be most appropriate.

Unfortunately, he does not spend anytime dealing with baseball, although he has published a novel called "Slowness".

[alec]

OLD MAN,
I have no access to Huey Mahl's material and I have no idea who the guy is. But if I got your question right, the answer is a pretty easy one.
Let me use this example.
You have 1.8 on the favorite and 2.3 on the dog. You want to scalp. I assume you want to win the same amount regardless of the outcome of the event.
OK. So you determine a unit X and bet 2.3*X on the favorite and 1.8*X on the dog. In case of either outcome you get 1.8*2.3*X. And you invested (1.8+2.3)*X.
So you profit is (1.8*2.3-(1.8+2.3))*X.
Now you can see that in order to make a scalp possible you need to have such odds that their product is greater than their sum.
If you know the amount you want to invest, to determine your unit you just divide this amount by the sum of the odds. In my example, if you want to invest an amount A, the unit X=A/(1.8+2.3).
To figure out what percentage of the amount invested you will win, just divide the product of odds by their sum.
In my example 1.8*2.3/(1.8+2.3)=1.00975. So your bet is equivalent to the bet of the whole amount @1.00975. The only difference is you know that you will win.
This method is not restricted to the case with two possible outcomes. You can use it for the events with n possible outcomes, where n is arbitrary.
There is almost no mathematics at all.

reno,
"Dividing scalps to the dollar is ridiculous if you're a serious scalper."
I do not understand this remark. Can you, please, explain?