Beyond Probability

[reno]

Alec, it is ridiculous to take the time to do the calculations to exactly divide up scalps while in the heat of battle (taking and buying back numbers). You are talking about relatively small amounts of dollars. If there is a little more or less on the dog, big deal. Why waste the time? It is easier and faster to place bets for even dollar amounts, and easier to do the books. I've never heard of a pro scalper who divides scalps perfectly to the dollar. It is an unnecessary and time-consuming distraction.

[alec]

reno,
Actually, the calculations are pretty easy ones. I do know a pro scalper who divides perfectly to the dollar.
Of course, it is not necessary to do the calculations all the time. In typical situation any scalper knows in advance, as probably you do, how he should divide his stakes.
And I was talking in general, not about either small or big amounts of money.

[thedevil]

This forum never ceases to amaze me. Some guys post like they had trouble in the fourth grade and then Squirmming for Action comes up with Milan Kundera. Then Reno writes he never heard of him. Just when I was getting ready to groom him for Jepordy. Squirmming, what did you think of The Farewell Party. Is Kundera still alive, know he was born in the 20's?

[reno]

A true pro has no time to perfectly divide scalps. It is that simple. As post time nears and you are taking both sides of steam games for multiple dimes, multiple times at diferent outs, you can't be wasting precious time doing calculations. And if you later decide to divide up the scalp exactly, you often lose line value.

Of course, after tonight I abdicate any claim to being a professional. And if Father Fitzgerald ever returns to Bettorsworld, I will let the good Padre know that I am a total screw-up, and that if a higher power doesn't intervene, I may throw away all my scalping profits this season in mistakes. Today, I managed to stretch my streak of consecutive losses of being heavy to 11 games. Actually, at Sportbet.Com, instead of punching in the Twins at + 104 for a dime, I mistakenly punched in the Mets at +104. Naturally, the Twins won and the Mets lost. Hence, I lost two dimes.

If the whole affair wasn't so tragic and costly, it would actually be awesome. I mean, what are the odds of losing 11 in a row? Isn't it something like one out of 2048 if the odds are even on each game?

[Squirming For Action]

Thedevil,
Again quickly so as not to get moved to the completely off the subject forum, I believe "The Farewell Party" was an earlier release of "The Farewell Waltz" which I have read...Abortion, Murder and is that damn American a Saint (frigging blue glow coming from his room!)? As usual, per what he writes, I like it.

I believe he is still alive, and in his 70's and I think "Immortality" was the last book he published in '97 or so.

[slots]

Reno,
Sitting at The Resort prob. doesn't help either. God forbid you need to get down for more than $500!

[AussieVamp2]

reno, would have thought a true pro who has been doing this for ages would have had all those memorised, or at least on a nice big chart by the computer??

unless you bet different amounts a game, like 2200 here, 1400 there, 7600 on another one......

[Bette Midler]

Reno...

I agree that spending the time to calculate a perfectly divided scalp can result in lost value during the volatile moments of a steam play, and perhaps I was a bit exaggerant when I said earlier that I would work up calculations "to the penny" on a scalp. I do, however, try to be close enough on both sides to be completely indifferent on the outcome of a game.

It is also for this reason that I like to avoid scalping steam that occurs moments before a scheduled start. Of course, these are the times when many of the best opportunities often present themselves, but some of the pitfalls can result in the kind of careless mistakes that result in trying to "beat the clock" on a steam play. Selecting the Mets instead of the Twins is a good example, and then you're stuck with little or no time to correct the matter.

I much prefer to play the morning moves, since there will usually be plenty of time to both open and close a position, even though you may give up additional value by not waiting until the steam hits. Of course, being in the eastern time zone helps when playing the a.m. line openers. Usually, I can catch two or three small scalps in the morning to get the day started, thus eliminating the sense of urgency around game time to push the envelop for my daily quota.

I also find playing the morning lines to be much less stressful, which I hope would reduce the likelihood of having a seizure at my desk.

[reno]

Slots, I live close to the Resort at Summerlin, and it is not a place worth visiting. It is overpriced and lacks the uplifting ambience and true elegance of, say, the Venetian. The sportsbook is really bad. It is not an enjoyable place for watching the games. The firm that designed it should have their architect license revoked until they learn what "viewer-friendly" means.

Squirming For Action, I just purchased a copy of "The Incredible Lightness of Being." After I read it, I'll let you know what I think.

[reno]

Bette Midler, post time separates the men from the boys. It's intense and stressful, as split-second decisions have to be made regarding when to take a game, which side to take first, how much to take it for, and when to get off it. The nature of crunch-time scalping is such that anyone who engages in it will make plenty of mistakes. Some days, everything works out great, and other days you look in the mirror and see not only an ugly mug, but a friggin' stupid one as well.

On busy days, I can put in well over a 100 bets, and I sometimes bet one game more than 10 times. But I am making far more mistakes being heavy this year than last, and because of my hellacious losing streak on these games, an otherwise great scalping year has been reduced to a mediocre one.

[Cons]

Reno, the difference in approach between what you're saying and what Alex is saying is to do with the sports involved.

You scalp US sports, where frantic line moves go on and a few seconds' wait can make you you miss the line.

If we scalp something on Euro sports, the lines don't budge most of the time. When the lines come out a few days before a game, 90% of the time they don't change until game time.

So we have all the time in the world to sit down and calculate things out. Sometimes if we favour one side a lot (and we're scalping the game), we'll set it up so that one side wins it all while the other simply returns your stake.

But in the end it's to do with the sports you bet on, and the way the lines move (or don't move ). Also, your scalps are on points and depend on a small fraction on the games to land on the number. Here we scalp the games so there's a small profit no matter what (ie moneyline scalp). Which do you find better personally?

[randyrohm]

A couple of questions for any of the heavy scalpers. It seems these large wager scalps (many dimes on each side) would work well at the Antiguan Sportsbooks and others that do transfers, but otherwise you spend a lot of time drawing down from the winning side and reposting the losers. Also with the amounts of money you would need to continuley post up any hope of being discreet should be forgotten. I also assume for a 10 dime scalp you would hit the game on each side for a couple of dimes a whack until the numbers move, you couldn't risk getting down 10 dimes on one side and then hope the number was still available to scalp.

[AussieVamp2]

Cons,

they are talking about baseball, which is a moneyline.......

[slots]

Reno,
When the Suncoast opens up they(resort at Summerlin) might as well board the place up and go back to sweeden or whereever they are from. How bout when they opened, the dealers and floormen took turns tapping each other out?! One minute a guy is watching the game, the next he's pitching the cards, and then he turns into a casino host! Wonder how much money got robbed in that joint!

slots

[alec]

reno,
What about the events with more than two possible outcomes? I don't see how one can even determine weather scalping is possible for such an event without doing any calculations.
Or you scalp only events with two possible outcomes?