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REALITY,
Scottys always come thru for me, now let me attempt to pinch hit.
Basically your formula makes sense. I d compare it to Power Ratings. Somewhere to start-but very raw. I believe to beat this prop you have to be watching game and in progress stats simultaneously. Then shade your # according to pitch count, ace reliever availability, lineup t/over, weather, etc.
The depreciation or appreciation of original # must be home team bias after 6 ings.
Now the value of a run? Variances from 30cents (Wrigley-out and Coors) to 65cents(Wrigley-in and 55 Chavez nite). Agree?
Thanks for all your insight.
Scottys always come thru for me, now let me attempt to pinch hit.
Basically your formula makes sense. I d compare it to Power Ratings. Somewhere to start-but very raw. I believe to beat this prop you have to be watching game and in progress stats simultaneously. Then shade your # according to pitch count, ace reliever availability, lineup t/over, weather, etc.
The depreciation or appreciation of original # must be home team bias after 6 ings.
Now the value of a run? Variances from 30cents (Wrigley-out and Coors) to 65cents(Wrigley-in and 55 Chavez nite). Agree?
Thanks for all your insight.