10/15/20 cent lines

[scott]

I have never used a 15 or 20cent baseball line in any spot I was in going back to the 60's. Having said that I will offer some thoughts on a touchy subject. This post is not meant to begin a bashing orgy but is meant to be constructive. Again I always used a dime line but I can see why some bookmakers wouldnt. The big reason is earning power. Lets assume all bookmakers are just that(bookmakers) and are not trying to force a side they like. If you use an average price of -150 with a 20cent line, dog + 130, your earning power will be approximately 3.6%. Using a 10cent line -140, dog + 130, your earning power is only 1.87%. These examples are assuming equal action(fav player laying price to win 100$ and dog player taking price putting up 100$).Of course under these conditions our bookmaker needs the dog. Baseball dogs used to win about 45% of the time, but I quit sometime ago and it may be +/- 45% now. Here is a partial table using the 45% dog win assuming equal action with no line movement:

20cent 10cent 160+140=3.46 -150+140=1.80
-150+130=3.60 -140+130=1.87
-140+120=3.75 -130+120=1.96
(the chart can be expanded but you get the idea)

Players lay 20cents on football and basketball and fav players must overcome a pointspread besides. let me finish by saying We dealt to the smartest of the smarts using a 10cent line and never had a losing season. I'm simply giving the 20cent line side of it. I'm not endorsing it. Baseball is tough on both sides, either laying or playing. Times and technology change everything. Scotty

[DoggieStyle]

I would say in the old days books wanted the players for baseball. This was part of the reason for the 10 cent line from what I'm told. More players had to be better for the book.
Today with the internet you can get lines FREE from all over the world. Information is everywhere. Players can have 100-? books. They really never have to play a bad number. Advantage: PLAYERS
Plus their is no protection against this group betting against Pitcher A, knowing his arm is dead. Pitcher B has been good. A 6 run first inning helps. There has never been a Service that can get better information than the Players get. It's only fair for the books to have a 20 cent line.
But don't get upset with me. I won't bet a 20 cent line if there are 10's out there. This is the books problem and a big one.
But Scotty why can't books just use a 10 cent line and cut their limit in half? Keeping the players happy and reducing their hold on games. This is what they really want isn't it?

Grizzles + points tonight

[BigMoney]

I think the biggest argument for a 10 cent line from the players viewpoint is the number of games availble. Many times more than in a football season. So a small vig, compounded over many more games, should equal at least as much profit from a single season. I believe most baseball bettors go broke before the season ends. Last year was an abberation.

Having said that, books are free to offer or not offer whatever line they want - even 30 or 40 cent lines. They'll just never get my plays, and I'll phase them out of use altogether. I think a lot of smart players will do the same.

[Cons]

Limits are an entirely different story IMO. I can give you a book that has no limits. Bet ten bucks or a million and they will take it...

Their idea is to let you bet the limit at any time you want. The catch is that once you hit the limit there's a 5-minute timeout before you can bet the limit again. It basically gives them time to move the line if the want to. After that, you can bet the limit again...

You can keep doing so infinitely... this book uses common sense. It makes no sense to me when a sportsbook tells you you can have no more action on a particlar game, though they will gladly accept more of the same action at the same number from elsewhere...

It's not logical, why would they deny you and yet keep accepting the exact same play from others? This book will let you keep hitting the limit, as long as they get the 5-minute interim to move the line as appropriate. Other than that, you can bet the bank on anything you choose...

[thedevil]

IMO all books (with the exception of some small outs) will stick to the 10c line.

Why? They won't want to alianiate the smaller bettors (which far outweigh the larger ones). I agree that some of the larger and more popular books will lower their limits on bases to curtail their losses or decisions.

Wiseguy or sharp action will accept smaller limits, they want to keep the out. Smaller bettors won't tolorate a 20c line and most books don't want to offend the backbone of their business, the half dollor and dollor player.

The stores that lower limits from say 5 dimes to 2 dimes will still get hit but they won't be on the top of some wiseguys list.
Their volume will go down but they will manage to keep their smaller players happy.


THE DEVIL

[scott]

Cons: Now that is some bookmaker! Bet a million as many times as you want on the same game. It doesnt take 5 minutes to decide to move a number after you just took a million or two though. They must be laying it off before they take the next million. The layoff joint must really, really be something. Of course the player has the biggest b**** of all!. Do they take million dollar parlays? Scotty

[phaedrus]

scotty what cons is saying is that you could theoretically bet a million dollars since they don't lock you out of a game once you have bet the limit. He is not saying that their limit is 1 million.

[scott]

phaedrus: He could also be talking about BET-EX out of Belgium. They are not bookmakers though. They simply hold two players money in escrow till the outcome is decided. They then pay the winner minus 5% of the win for themselves.(That post for Cons was in jest. This forum could use a little of the lighter side). Scotty

[phaedrus]

scotty



agreed.

[bucky]

I'm not that sure that a 20 cent line does help a book. All the big players are only go to play them if one of their sides is competitive. It is a form of adverse selection and I am curious to know if it just makes matters worse for them. Lopsided on one side and they are gambling too unless they have outs.

[Cons]

I was talking about BlueSq.com , where you can bet the limit once every five minutes. Phaedrus is right, the limit is something like $3000, less on some bets, but you can have as much as you want in the end...

[bbuster]

Any real Bookmaker will give you ALL YOU WANT as he is moving the number after each bet that doesnt mean anything to me.It would be something to find a BM to give you all you want at one number!

[scott]

Cons: I hope you have a good sense of humor and I'm certain you do. It's one of the traits most of the people in this business inherit after a while. This is meant for a laugh: At 3dimes a crack it would take 28 hrs to get down for a million. Scotty