How many people win long term??>>

[Fred]

What percentage of people actually make a profit betting sports long term, over several years (not counting middling/scalping)? I've heard/read figures of from 0.05% to 5%.

All thoughts are appreciated.

[Value_Finder]

I don't think we ever find the answer on this one. First of all we don't know how many sportsbettors out there. Even if we have access to this number there is always a problem with the definition of sportsbettors. Do we count only the serious one or do we include the recreational bettors? I believe, rarely a recreational bettors won long term. We all know here that betting sports require a lot of time and patience. Recreational bettors don't have both or not willing to spend the time and do the research to be a succesfull bettors.
Also not many bettors would come out and say that he/she is winning in the long term for various reasons (tax, society, etc.).
It would be interesting though to see the result of a formal survey. May be bworld can do this in their voting section. I also would like to hear if anybody has heard/read/have access to this number.

[scott]

Fred: If we dont count "earners" and just consider those who pick winners long term we are talking about a number that is so minute it almost doesnt exist. Eleven is bigger than ten!!. Scotty

[buckeye]

This is an excellent and fascinating subject.
I have tried to get some feedback on Vegas travelers who end up in the black for the trip ( which is probably even harder to do since the vig on MOST Vegas games is worse than 4.54% ). I kept hearing all of these stories about people who ALWAYS win when they go, yet their stories fell apart upon serious inquiry about what games they play and HOW they did it.

The problem is that most gamblers LIE about their losses, to themselves and others. So I don't know how you could ever get accurate statistical data. I have been told it is human nature to not admit to the "flaw" of losing at gambling, but I am not sure what psychological folly is really at play. The bookies aren't likely to help, as they don't want the average Joe to know how big a deficit he is actually fighting. There is also the phenomenon that you might be beating one out and losing to 4 others, so one book might not reflect the overall %'s.

As for Vegas, I have heard/read similar stats to those you quoted, 5%-.05%, for a single trip/visit. While the sample is small ( often only a few days ) and some can end up winners, I believe it is closer to 1% than 5%. The overriding reason is MONEY MANAGEMENT. The poor discipline and money management skills most people participate in increases the houses theoretical 1+% advantage in craps and 6+% for novice BJ players to 15%-20% according to most casinos, from what I have read. This is an astronomical difference and I believe it to be fact based on observing hundreds of hours of play at the tables. MOST people will NOT quit ahead. If they are up they want more, if they are down they try to get even, a vicious cycle when the odds are constantly stacked against you. The only people who I can concieve will consistantly win are poker sharks, card counters, or short term jackpot winners, and these are all a very very tiny portion of the Vegas-going populace.

I believe that the vast majority of sportsbettors, myself included, have the same MONEY MANAGEMENT problems that are observed in Vegas, and thus my guess is that <1% are long term winners for that reason. Even if your picks are reasonably good, money management can, and usually does, kill your bankroll. The pros have learned to overcome this problem, but most of us are amateurs still.

[bbuster]

Buckeye- you might label yourself an amatuer but being able to admit and acknowledge what you just did is the first step to the next level. As most people just fool and lie to themselves and blame the results they get on bad luck.

[Cons]

I can't remember where I got them from, but I remember the statistics being that 96-97% of people lose in the long run.

[cashusking]

My grandma always sez:

If you only bet what you can afford to lose you can never be beaten.

If you bet over your head you can't win.

It's true by definition! This is the single most important concept to grasp, even MORE than picking winners, for long term gambling success. Patience however is a virtue learned.

Happy New 2000 to all.

[STING]

The answer to this question is 23%

[Fred]

Thanks for the responses fellas.

Would you mind expanding on your answer Sting?