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I had originally planned on taking off after baseball, and just getting some R&R until next season. However, my partner came up with some simple, make-shift betting systems in hoops and hockey, so we decided to conservatively play until the new Millenium, and then vacation.
Since we were playing, we also decided to do some serious middling in the hoops and hockey. I hadn't middled baskets since 1991, and had never liked it as much as baseball scalping. I had also heard from a partner of Marty the Jew, a true sportsbetting Hall of Fame middler, that middling had gone down the tubes, and that they weren't even going to bother with it this basketball season.
Well,I had updated my middle studies in the NBA and colleges after the college rule changes in the 80's. I knew that middling colleges wasn't even close to what it had been before the time clock and 3-point shot were introduced. However, even after the rule changes, my studies showed a 1% profit edge on 1.5 point college middles in the 1-6 point spread range. This 1% edge was identical to what 1.5 middles on NBA sides have historically been worth. So, I assumed that Marty had just run into some bad luck, and that I should still make some nice money by middling.
Anyway, from middling baskets in November, we have lost money. We are geting "juiced out." We have yet to hit an NBA side- middle. We've hit some stuff in the colleges and NBA totals, but not enough to cover our juice. What is really aggravating is the size of the middles we are getting. For example, Saturday, we layed -18 on Bowling Green and took + 22 on Arkansas LR; we got Boston College +10 and Penn State -7.5, etc, etc. Plenty of 2 pt.+ middles. And after the day, I'm down a few dimes in juice.
In Hockey, our studies showed that pk. was worth 35 cents and "1" worth 45 cents. Since you can't really middle hockey, we decided to go for "reverse middles-scalps." For example, we would bet one team at -0.5 goal at +120 and the other at pk.+ 120. Theoretically, since pk. is worth 35 cents-- and we are getting a total of 40 cents--we would have a 5-cent edge on this game. If the game doesn't end in a tie, we scalp it for 20 cents. If it falls tie, we push one side and lose the other. In the long run, these type games should, theoretically, not end in a tie often enough for one to grind out a profit.
So much for theory. After a couple of weeks of going for these reverse middle-scalps, we are down several dimes. We want the baskets to fall, and they don't. We want the hockey games to not fall, and they do. Call it the "middler's blues."
Although we are down middling, our plays, based on simple, unsophisticated sytems, have won, and we are roughly break-even for the month. We'll probably keep middling until the end of December, just to see if it turns around. Whether it does or doesn't, I won't be middling again anymore. I just hate to work hard all day, get great middles, have nothing fall, and lose a few dimes for my efforts. On days like that, you ask yourself why you even got out of bed.
According to our research, bandwagoners who bet the steam moves in baskets are just spinning their wheels. The NBA totals are still great for the first few weeks of the season, but show diminishing return thereafter. Steam sides in the NBA and colleges, unlike years ago, no longer do particularly well, even in November.
The bottom line is, you need to pick winners or follow someone who does. Next season, if our research bears fruit, we will bet serious money on hoops and hockey. But whether or not our research bears fruit, my days as a serious middler will be history.
Since we were playing, we also decided to do some serious middling in the hoops and hockey. I hadn't middled baskets since 1991, and had never liked it as much as baseball scalping. I had also heard from a partner of Marty the Jew, a true sportsbetting Hall of Fame middler, that middling had gone down the tubes, and that they weren't even going to bother with it this basketball season.
Well,I had updated my middle studies in the NBA and colleges after the college rule changes in the 80's. I knew that middling colleges wasn't even close to what it had been before the time clock and 3-point shot were introduced. However, even after the rule changes, my studies showed a 1% profit edge on 1.5 point college middles in the 1-6 point spread range. This 1% edge was identical to what 1.5 middles on NBA sides have historically been worth. So, I assumed that Marty had just run into some bad luck, and that I should still make some nice money by middling.
Anyway, from middling baskets in November, we have lost money. We are geting "juiced out." We have yet to hit an NBA side- middle. We've hit some stuff in the colleges and NBA totals, but not enough to cover our juice. What is really aggravating is the size of the middles we are getting. For example, Saturday, we layed -18 on Bowling Green and took + 22 on Arkansas LR; we got Boston College +10 and Penn State -7.5, etc, etc. Plenty of 2 pt.+ middles. And after the day, I'm down a few dimes in juice.
In Hockey, our studies showed that pk. was worth 35 cents and "1" worth 45 cents. Since you can't really middle hockey, we decided to go for "reverse middles-scalps." For example, we would bet one team at -0.5 goal at +120 and the other at pk.+ 120. Theoretically, since pk. is worth 35 cents-- and we are getting a total of 40 cents--we would have a 5-cent edge on this game. If the game doesn't end in a tie, we scalp it for 20 cents. If it falls tie, we push one side and lose the other. In the long run, these type games should, theoretically, not end in a tie often enough for one to grind out a profit.
So much for theory. After a couple of weeks of going for these reverse middle-scalps, we are down several dimes. We want the baskets to fall, and they don't. We want the hockey games to not fall, and they do. Call it the "middler's blues."
Although we are down middling, our plays, based on simple, unsophisticated sytems, have won, and we are roughly break-even for the month. We'll probably keep middling until the end of December, just to see if it turns around. Whether it does or doesn't, I won't be middling again anymore. I just hate to work hard all day, get great middles, have nothing fall, and lose a few dimes for my efforts. On days like that, you ask yourself why you even got out of bed.
According to our research, bandwagoners who bet the steam moves in baskets are just spinning their wheels. The NBA totals are still great for the first few weeks of the season, but show diminishing return thereafter. Steam sides in the NBA and colleges, unlike years ago, no longer do particularly well, even in November.
The bottom line is, you need to pick winners or follow someone who does. Next season, if our research bears fruit, we will bet serious money on hoops and hockey. But whether or not our research bears fruit, my days as a serious middler will be history.
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