+220/-300 How much juice is that??

[mls]

I noticed Intertops has Arizona State/Oregon on the moneyline at +220/-300.

Seems pretty steep jiuce - for the mathematicians out there - how much juice exactly is that?

Also which books have better college/NFL moneylines?

[Phil]

How much juice,
Well the short answer is ALOT!

This is the way I've always done it to calculate the juice some of our more unfriendly bookmakers gouge us for.

ON a 20 cent, 11:10 line

the bookie takes in two bets, both laying $110 to win $100. So he has taken in a total of $220. Now when he pays out to the winner, he pays out the winner's original $110 plus the win amount of $100 for a total of $210. But he took in $220, so he has made $10 on that bet

10/220 = 4.54%

that is the vig on this bet and note, IT IS PAID BY THE WINNER, not the loser. He just loses his original bet.

OK, so for the -300/+220 example

The bookie takes in $300 dollars from one guy and $300 dollars from the other for a total of $600. Now he pays out to the winner the guy's original $300 plus the win amount of $220 for a total of $520. So the bookie has kept $80 of the $600 he took in.

80/600 = 13.33% YIKES!

of course all this is a theoretical vig assuming perfectly balanced action, which of course we know doesn't happen. But in theory this is the juice on the wager.

NOTE - the reason you see line's increase from 20 cents on up as you bet on bigger faves is because if the books kept the 20cent difference for say a -500 fave, they actually would be seeing dramatic drops in their vig.

+480/-500 VIG

take in 1000 on two bets
pay out 480 + 500 = 980
keep 20

20/1000 = 2%

So that's why we see bigger spreads as the faves get higher. However there's no reason for the aforementioned -300/+220. That's just highway robbery.

[OZ]

-300 75%
+220 31.25%

=106.25%

[OZ]

-110 52.38%
-110 52.38%
=104.76%

[Bob]

Juice on -110/-110 is 4.545% as you say Phil, but it is only 5.88% on -300/+220. A book that takes in $300 on the fav only has to get $125 on the dog to balance his action. He takes in $425 and either bet will pay out $400.....winnings plus stake.

[DeacDoug]

I remember last year for the Super Bowl Postime had Denver -400 and Atlanta plus 300. I told them they wouldn't get much action at those crappy prices. Guess they didn't want any.

[Phil]

Bob - thanks for the reply. yah I thought the 13% was really to high. I got it now.

[OZ]

Don't worry about what the profit on turnover is for the sportsbook , worry about what you have to do to win. That is at -300 you have to win 75 times out of 100 to break even,and at +220 you have to win 31.25% of the time out of 100 to break even

The game of craps is a classic example, if you just bet on the pass line,the juice is about 1.4% but if you bet the pass line and take double your odds the juice is now only 0.60 %, but overall you will lose the same amount of money as just betting the pass line.

So don't worry about what the profit on turnover is for the bookies, just worry about how often you have to win to make a profit.

[wintermute]

Actually -400 +300 is not a bad line.

The vig would be 0.04762 compared to a vig of 0.04545 on a 20 cent pick 'em line.

I came up with a formula for calculating the vig but it's too long. As soon as I can simplify it a little bit I'll post it.

'mute

[wintermute]

OK, here goes nothing.

If fbet is the amount wagered on the favourite to win $100 and if dpayoff is the payoff on the dog from a $100 wager then

the vig equals

( fbet - dpayoff )

divided by

( 100 + 2 * fbet + fbet * dpayoff / 100 )


In the original post, fbet was 300 and dpayoff was 220 so

vig = ( 300 - 220 ) / ( 100 + 600 + 660 )

or .05882

which agrees with Bob's result.

'mute

[Hartley]

Actually I come up with the same number as Oz at 6.4%.

Converting to decimal odds:

-300 = 1.3333...
+220 = 3.20

Hold on 3.2 = 1/3.2 = 31.25%
Hold on 1.3 = 1/1.3333= 75%

Total hold = 106.25%

[wintermute]

Actually I think the results are the same. BOB and I are saying that the house keeps 0.05882 out of every dollar bet while Oz and Hartley are saying the house keeps 6.25 out of every 106.25 bet. The ratio is the same - surely it's not a coincidence.

'mute

[Cons]

Forgive the commotion, but isn't it just an 80-cent line?

[Jason Johnson]

Just to shead some light on this topic and i am probably wrong in my view but i understand what was posted as being a money line. As i see it is not really juice situation. It seems to me like a very heavy split on the money line. The correlation between Money lines and point spread is more or less as follows

Point
Spread Fav/Dog to Fav/Dog
PK -110/-110

1 -115/-105 -125/+105

1½ -120/EV -135/+115

2 -125/+105 -145/+125

2½ -140/+120 -160/+140

3 -150/+130 -170/+150

3½ -160/+140 -180/+160

You guys get the idea i think for a point spread of 7 the correlation to a money should range from -260/+220 to -350/+280.

I hope this provides some insight into what the conversion between point spreads and money lines are.

But different books put different splits on their money lines.

Hope this is helpful.

Any additional info drop me a line @ betmaster@betasw.com
Regards

Jason Johnson
Webmaster/ Gen Man IT
Action Sports

www.Betasw.com