Soccer

[niltes]

I'm looking for soccer outs, mainly English soccer, that use a win/lose line only (no draw option). Any input highly appreciated.

[Gregg]

Here at Victor Chandler we offer 'Asian Lines' on English Soccer.This means that if a game is considered a virtual pick the line would be DNB (draw no bet).If there is a stronger favorite then a team may be -½ a goal or -1(if the team wins by one it's a push).
For a more detailed explanation feel free to give me a call on 1 877 9 VICTOR, but I'm sure that Cons or Shawn will respond to this post and point you in the right direction!!!

Cheers,
Gregg Rathbone
Victor Chandler International Superbook

[Shawn]

Yes...

Cons & I are the Asian Line addicts for English soccer.

VC is great because they not only book England Asian-style but they'll also "make up" an Asian Line for any game they'll take a single on that isn't too lopsided. Most of my plays are in Spain.

Drawback at VC is that these Asian lines are not posted on the Internet regularly for any league (never mind my weird plays on Intertoto qualifiers). You must call up, request the game, and ring back 1/2 hour later.

A second place worth checking out is www.jphan.com. They outpace VC by charging only half as much juice, but fall short of VC by booking only England and Italy, only being open from 0400 GMT to 1500 GMT, and not having a toll free number.

I'm open at both places and would reccommend each, but I remain sour that these are the only two shops in the world that want my business.

A few other shops offer "underdog +.5 goals" lines, but it's just not the same. A place that does this for England is megasports.com.au.

I'll stop ranting now and just be thankful for VC and JPhan.

Shawn

[Cons]

It looks like Shawn beat me to it...

Before I begin let me add that JPhan _only_ books Asian lines. So if you want to bet on a regular 3-way line, or a total, then they have no such options available. They also don't have any other sports available, so you're simply stuck with Asian soccer lines. And that's it.

VC, on the other hand, probably offers the greatest range of soccer bets out there. It is the _only_ sportsbook to offer both Asian lines and totals, all 20-cent lines. Add to that 3-way lines, all the major leagues, and you're probably looking at the best soccer book out there. And you can also bet all the other sports there as well...

One drawback is that they aren't online. You have to call in wagers. But the online system is supposed to be ready in 1-2 months, so it's definitely on its way.

I currently use three outs, and although I am happy with all three, I must say that when it comes to soccer especially, there's simply no substitute for VC. On countless occasions we've tried to convince other books to offer the same types of bets as VC does, but to no avail. So as your first and main out I honestly recommend VC.

[Stanley]

Can I offer an alternative?

I'm no fan of Asian lines, they make the wager far too complicated. The main advantage of fixed odds betting is that once you place the wager at whatever odds, you know exactly what you will win. If I wanted it to vary depending on the degree to which the team won, I would also look at spread betting such as offered by Sporting Index.

I think the 'ties lose' rule is a major reason why wagering on soccer has not grown in popularity in North America as much as could be hoped after the 1994 World Cup, Major League Soccer and the rise of online (ie. worldwide) sportsbooks. To help promote soccer wagering, I think more emphasis should be placed on the fixed odds betting system. An alien sport and an alien betting system won't lead to widespread adoption.

Shawn mentions that Megasports offer 'underdog +.5 goals' lines, Sportingbet is also a solid sportsbook that does the same. However, I agree, it is not enough.

Two online sportsbooks come to mind that let you specify which team you want to not lose, ie play them on a win and on a draw. These are worldbet.com and eurobet.com. For most games at Worldbet you can play the games as singles; only for lower division matches do you have to specify at least three teams in a parley. They currently cover soccer matches across 16 European countries. Eurobet is much more limited in terms of wagers offered. Again they offer lines on most European soccer matches, though in only a few leagues, including the English Premiership, are you able to place single wagers. Elsewhere it must be at least three team trebles.

The wagering format is the standard 1 for home win; 0 for draw and 2 for away win. With these sportsbooks can you wager on 10 (home win or draw) or 02 (away win or draw).

This is a simple and convenient way to eliminate the 'ties lose' rule.

The disadvantage with this and all wagering in soccer is that the sprotsbook/bookmaker's take from the lines is very large. Take for example, Intertops' odds for tonight's Scottish Premier League game between Motherwell and Hearts: 2.50 home win, 2.95 draw, 2.20 away win. For a close game, not one outcome warrants a 1 in 3 return, even though Hearts have an estimated slightly higher than 1 in 2 chance of winning. These odds, not to pick on Intertops but to give a widespread example, show that soccer lines are way higher than the 20c lines you find in football or golf or most North American sports. It is not much better with Asian lines.

So another alternative to the 'ties lose' rule and a way of getting better value for your soccer bets is to visit http://www.crastinum.com/oddcomp/ and get out your calculator!

At this site you'll the current lines on virtually all of the soccer matches taking place in the world for the current week. The majority of online/telephone betting organisations that cover soccer are listed here. It's a tremendous service and a first point of reference before any of my wagers on soccer are made.

Now to get out the calculator. Let's go back to Intertops' lines of 2.50, 2.95, 2.20 for the Motherwell-Hearts game. If you had an Intertops account and wanted to bet on Hearts to win or draw the game, then you needn't be stuck just because they don't offer 10 or 02 odds like Worldbet or Eurobet.

From this example of Hearts to win = 2.20 and the draw = 2.95, wager 2.95/(2.95+2.20) of your stake on Hearts to win and 2.20/(2.95+2.20) of your stake on the draw.

So if I wanted to wager $103 on Hearts to win or draw, I would place $59 on Hearts to win @ 2.20 and $44 on the draw @ 2.95. As long as Hearts didn't lose I would win $129.80 from either of my two bets. The computed odds are 1.26 on Hearts not to lose.

This is exactly the way in which Worldbet and Eurobet work out their 10 and 02 odds.

This is where the Crastinum website comes into it. The odds on soccer at one sportsbook alone are never very attractive, but if you can cover your desired outcome with two bets at two different sportsbooks, it may be worth your while.

Crastinum list WorldBet as giving odds of 2.60 on Hearts to win and Megasports, Eurobet and Easybet as giving odds of 3.25 on the draw. Providing you have an out at Worldbet and one of the other three, you can wager 3.25/(2.60+3.25) of your stake on Hearts to win at Worldbet and 2.60/(2.60+3.25) of your stake on the draw at any of the other three. The computed odds 1.44 on Hearts not to lose with is much superior to the 1.26 available at Intertops only.

Naturally this produces much more attractive odds if you want to back a dog to at least secure a draw. Thus you would have got extremely attractive odds on Wimbledon to at least Man Utd at the weekend by this method.

Crastinum also go on to show how it is possible if you have outs at all the available sportsbooks, you can bet on all three outcomes at different sportsbooks and be guaranteed computed odds greater than 1.0 whatever the result of the match.

I hope this is of some help even though it has taken quite some time to explain the workings of this system.

[Shawn]

Nice post Stanley.

I remain a fan of Asian Lines...they're not as complicated as you let on (especially the ones that are dnb, -.5, -1, -1.5 etc...the ones inbetween like -1.25 just mean half the bet is at -1 and half at -1.5).

Also, Asian lines are the only way to overcome that huge glass of juice you rightly talk about. Asian lines are 20-cent lines, and at J.Phan they are dime lines. Dimelines! In soccer!

Further, suppose you like a big dog to keep the game close. Taking the draw at 5.00 and the win at 8.00 for a combined 3.00 is not nearly as attractive to me as a bet at evens with +2 goals head start.

To each his own,

Shawn

[ray]

My 2 cents,

Stanley, use Crastinum to create your own handicap line is possible but not neccessary practical.

Especailly when it is becoming more and more "Don Best" like nowadays, that is, the margin is getting smaller.

Only some of those small Euro books that maybe have something like 30 to 40 cents difference on certain games, for most of the familiar names, the difference is just not there for you to have any "extra thoughts".

Extra thought means scalping or middling.

I can easily find at least 3 to 4 "famous" names whose lines/odds on certain leagues are just exactly the same as VC or Ladbroke.

Moreover, when you will create your own combined handicape lines, you need to at least have accounts at 10 to 15 books, all those transaction costs (I seriously doubt that there will be many Euro books will deal you the same way as offshores on this issue) will kill any profit that you can generate from that.

Not to mention the time and efforts that you needed to manage those accounts.

As for the handicap line at Sportingbet, worldbet and Eurobet, interwetten (3-way), etc. The problem is, the vig is horrible.

When an American bettor will see a line for a tennis game on Worldbet with 1.70, 1.80 (-140, -125), they will think this is just fvcking unbelievable, highway robbery. Same thing happened on soccer.

Asian lines could help you avoid those problems and it also has more flexibility to both the bettors and the bookies.

Given the vig on the line is fair, up to 20 cents, they are the future of soccer betting, especially for the North American market.

As for BYOC (bring your own calculator), I'm always a fan of it.

BYOC means you are not only needed to be familiar with the odds available out there but you also need to choose the better options.

For example, after the first 7 week in Premiere, TIE is only sitting at 16% of the total outcomes.

Insteading getting the extra 1/4 goal or 1/2 goal on Asian and handicap, I played most of my soccer bets 3-way so far.

When you can get extra 30 to 50 cents return while you have a strong number behind you, isn't it a better choice?

When certain leagues go after the mid-season, there are clearly several big clubs fighting for the tittle and without any distractions from their European competitions and Cup games, isn't it the better time to think about playing those favors on Asian or handicape to give the extra 1 or 1.5 goal to gain a better odds?

Lately, especially the last 3 months, I've seen more and more offshores are interested on providing soccers line or to provide more betting options on soccer, anybody knows the exact reasons for that?

[Shawn]

I think more places are offering more soccer for a few reasons:

1) As a courtesy service to bettors (doesn't cost the books anything...vig on a three-way is pretty sweet for the books)

2) Volume is rising slightly in the North American market

3) Global migration being what it is, a few serious bettors have left Hong Kong for the West Coast. I know a guy in Vancouver who has gone from $0 to 80-90K a week in soccer handle within the last two years and he just takes Premiership and Serie A. Couldn't tell you if his clients are the real McCoy or just beards, but his handle is up.

4) Consequently, guys like the one in 3) need places to lay off from time to time, so outs like Caribi are helping him out

I remain convinced that 20-25 years from now the N. American soccer handle will equal that of hockey.

Shawn

[Cons]

Stanley, Asian lines will do just what you want, and usually at a better price too!

Find a team that is favoured and whose odds to win are at 1.91 for example. That would make them -0.5 on the Asian line with same odds of 1.91. Now that would make the underdog +0.5 at 1.91 as well. Which means you could take the underdor simply "not to lose" and get close to even money. Try and find an example like this and you'll see that combining the draw/win won't give you as good odds. At least on most occasions.

If you have a heavy favourite then obviously the Asian line will be different and you might get the underdog at +1.5 goals, with much lower odds than the 3-way lines. But I have the same mentality as Shawn and I'd rather get a "headstart" in the deal.

Overall Asian lines offer a great deal as you can get 20-cent lines, or even dime lines for that matter. With vig that low there's definitely a lot of value in these lines.

[Cons]

I just thought about scalping games as well. Dime Asian lines would offer immense middling opportunities, especially since soccer odds tend to vary a lot more than baseball lines. Have you checked this possibility out Shawn?

[Stanley]

Great to see such a response, though am feeling a little cornered ...

Can I just outline a few general points first before I answer some of the remarks directly aimed at my post.

First, we all agree that the juice on traditional soccer odds is scandalous. However, I do believe that with the rise of Asian odds and the move to offshore (and online) gambling, increased competition will drive that juice down. I don't imagine we will see 20c lines in fixed odds soccer betting in the near future, but some improvement will surely take place.

Second, the original post by niltes asked for soccer outs that use a win/lose line only. I was merely offering an alternative method to the Asian line approach that seems so popular in the soccer threads here at Bettorsworld. I don't advocate playing the two-bet win or draw strategy all the time; it is merely a safe play if you are worried that your team may only secure a draw.

Third, I was unfair in being too dismissive of Asian lines. I signed up for JPhan's soccer odds e-mail updates at the start of the season and would have started using this out had I not come across Crastinum which makes my system so easy to research. As a long-time bettor on soccer, I welcomed any move towards 2-way bets on soccer and any reduction in the juice.

Now that has been said, and again in response to the general issues raised in this thread, let me add a little more on my reservations of Asian lines betting vs. my fixed odds plus Crastinum and calculator approach.

1) However simple it is in reality, payouts from wagers on Asian lines appear complicated to the newcomer. That's why JPhan devote a whole web page to a payout table and examples or tips.sport.com [excellent site, along with the linked football.sports.com] had a full page article by Joe Saumarez Smith explaining how it works. I know it's simple once you sit down and try to understand it, but it is an alien odds system to the overwhelming majority of punters in North America and Europe who wager on fixed odds. It is a barrier [along with the juice] that has to be overcome if wagering on soccer to become widespread in North America.

2) The same criticism that Shawn made about the 'underdog +.5 goals' lines still applies to Asian lines. The only difference is the number of goals that the dog receives as handicap. You cannot play a favourite to win or draw with Asian lines and make a profit. And let's face it, most people play the favourite in every sport.

If you fancy the home favourite, with my system you can play the home favourite to win (1) and you can play safe at smaller odds to cover yourself against a draw (10).

Most of my wagers are on straight wins, but I do use this method when I am a little unsure about the outcome. I also use it widely in parleys with one or two 'bankers'.

3) This is a straightforward means of wagering. It can be done online with a click of a button using funds deposited usually without fees via credit card or whatever. With JPhan you have to transfer money via bank wire only, there are currently no other means of depositing money with them. With VC, as Shawn writes, the Asian lines are not currently available online and so they have to be telephoned and given 1/2 hour to draw up a line. This is not a straightforward means of wagering.

4) JPhan only offer Asian lines on English Premier League and Italian Serie A games. I don't know about VC, they seem to cover a lot more games, but only once they've been given 1/2 hour to drawn up a line. With the fixed odds sportsbook approach, soccer odds can be found online on virtually every professional [and sometimes semi-professional] soccer game taking place across the whole world. That's flexibility, plus you can play parleys which you cannot with JPhan and I'm not sure about VC.

Regarding the more specific points raised in this thread ...

1) Shawn writes about the attractiveness of a +2 goals handicap @ evens against combined odds of 3.00 on a heavy dog to draw [@ 5.00] or win [@ 8.00]. I'm sorry, but they're not equivalent odds for the same game.

Take the Man Utd game at the weekend, Wimbledon were a huge dog. JPhan gave Wimbledon +1.5 goals handicap, not +2.0 goals. My out on this game was Bowmans who offered 5.00 [+400] on the draw and 12.00 [+1100] on a Wimbledon win. The computed odds on Wimbledon avoiding defeat [always tempting after a Man Utd European midweek tie] were 3.53, which are higher than the 3.00 odds in Shawn's example, while the +1.5 goals handicap was smaller than in Shawn's example. The 'attractiveness' of Shawn's Asian line alternative is thus diminished.

2) In response to Ray's post, you certainly don't need 10-15 outs for each game. For the example I gave of tonight's Motherwell-Hearts game, I have four outs: Worldbet, Intertops, Sportingbet and Easybets. From these alone, I could get odds on a Motherwell victory ranging from 2.40 to 2.80; on a draw from 2.70 to 3.25 and on a Hearts victory from 2.20 to 2.60. That's quite a lot of variation to exploit and they're not 'small Euro books'. I also use Bowmans [English Premier only] and that's more than I need for just soccer wagering.

There are no significant transaction costs involved and it is much easier than phoning for lines 1/2 hour later, especially if you wait for the team line-ups before wagering. I just can't see the flexibility in this form of Asian line wagering.

3) To answer Cons' post about odds on slight dogs, let me give an example as he requests to show there is not that great a difference.

Take the Arsenal-Southampton game at the weekend, which is the closest example I could find from Bowman's odds [still in my cache, hence their use] to the requested 1.91 example. Bowman's odds were Arsenal to win 1.71 [-140], the draw 3.25 [+225] and Southampton to win 4.30 [+330]. JPhan gave Arsenal a +.75 goal handicap which shows that they backed Arsenal much heavier than Bowmans.

From this example, the computed odds on Southampton not to lose were 1.85 which is not that different to the odds given by JPhan if Southampton had got the draw they deserved.

I accept that the computed odds would have been lower than 1.85 had Arsenal been a 1.91 favourite with Bowmans rather than a 1.71 favourite, but Cons' example only serves to highlight the excessive juice in soccer fixed odds wagering, nothing more. If we use a calculator and Crastinum and even just the four/five outs I mentioned above, I'm sure I could have gotten odds at least as good as 1.91 if not higher for Southampton to at least draw if the win and draw bets had been placed at different sportsbooks.

That's all.

I've got great respect for your soccer handicapping, I've been following it for the last week or so in the Bookies Hell forum. This is not some personal attack on your wagering strategies, hell, I welcome the introduction of an alternative, lower-juice, form of soccer betting, I hope it has an effect on the rest of the industry, but I dared to rear my head and ... POW!!!

GL2U and may we convince others of the virtues of the beautiful game.

Stanley

PS.
Can somebody [eg. Gregg] answer a question for me about VC? I didn't get a striaght answer when I e-mailed this to them vie their webaite. Does everyone have to pay the 3% service charge on wagers with VC or is it just us Brits who face a 9% betting tax if we don't go offshore?

[AussieVamp2]

Stanley, if you want to avoid the betting tax type problems you might want to look at Megasports, Centrebet, Darwin All-sports, etc. as having good soccer odds and no tax problems, Centrebet probably being 2nd on most leagues offered.....

Interwetten is worth it for soccer too I think, as they offer a large range...

I am intrigued by easybets and sportingbet and am considering them, also like the look of Chandler when they open online.......

[Stanley]

The betting tax is not much of a problem nowadays with the rise of online sportsbooks. It is only the British-based ones such as Blue Square, Totalbet and UKbetting that are online and still charge the 9% betting tax.

The British chain bookmakers are gradually moving offshore such as VC and passing on to the customers a 3% 'service' charge. I wanted to know is it just for us Brits or for everyone. I can't imagine VC getting much international trade if they charge their international customers 3% of their wager when they go elsewhere and bet free of any any charges.

[Gregg]

Stanley,
The 3% service charge only applies to UK customers, the majority of which want to bet UK horse racing.Half of the service charge is levy, half for the cost of the international call.

International customers therefore bet totally tax and service charge free.

If you want to open an account with us, Victor Chandler International Superbook (the American Division of Victor Chandler International) you can bet with no 'charges'.

The only drawbacks for you are you would have to pay for the call, and our opening times are 10am EST until after the last game starts(or after Half Time during Football).

Any further questions call me on 00 350 78781(from the UK).

Thank you for your interest.

Gregg Rathbone
Victor Chandler International Superbook

[ray]

Stanley,

first of all, let me say that I don't feel any of our posts (Shawn, Cons and me) are offensive, please don't take it in this way.

About your posts regarding several points and your comments, here are my thoughts,

a) Asian line is definitely not anything complicated. Maybe a lot of people just got scared by its name, but once you know clearly what it is all about, there is no any oriental magic inside. I gurantee it will be much easier to calculate and betting than your "combined handicap odds" metthod.

b) Actually, you are right about Jphan about the money transaction inconvience and the lack of other leagues. But remember, their targeted market is not here but rather the far east customers.

c) In fact, worldbet or Eurobet are NOT the only places that have that kind of "combined 3-way lines" (thats what I will call it), that is 1+x, x+2 or even 1+2. Several weeks ago, 5Dimes did post the same thing on Premiere league and Serie A for couple weeks, (later they stopped, don't know whether they've got smoked or too busy to do it, I hope you will see this bookybashrr), and THEIR ODDS ARE WAY BETTER THAN YOU CAN FIND AT WORLDBET OR ANY OTHER PLACES.

They use 20 cents line for pickem games, 30 cents up to about -160, about 40 at -200.

Let me give you an example,

Worldbet has Coventry vs Westham this weekend at 2.50 2.95 2.30.

Coventry plus tie at 1.36 (-278), West Ham plus tie at 1.26 (-385).

IF 5dimes will still have the lines hanging out this weekend (giving they have the same set of 3-way lines), it will be,

Coventry +.5 at -160, West Ham +.5 at -180.

See the difference?

-278 vs -160 and -385 vs -180!!!

Trust me, you are using a knife to cut your meat out of your body when you are playing those odds at worldbet.

When you convert the 1+x lines at worldbet for that Liverpool game into this "handicaped 2-way", you will have,

Everton -.5 +330
Liverpool +.5 -1400

If you will like to bet on Liverpool with this kind of odds, I bet all of us will like to be your bookies everyday.

More on Crastinum and others later.