TEASER THOUGHTS

[ajax50]

WITH FOOTBALL RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER, HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON PLAYING TEASERS..... 1.PAY ATTENTION TO THE TOTAL.IF THE TOTAL IS LOW 33-35, THAN POINTS ARE A PREMIUM (A SCORE IS HARDER TO COME BY).TEASING A WAC GAME WHERE THE FINAL IS 49-31 JUST DOESNT MAKE SENSE. 2.DONT GO THRU THE ZERO POINT. IN OTHER WORDS, DONT MAKE A 3.5 POINT FAVORITE A 3 POINT DOG. YOU LOSE THE VALUE OF THE ZERO POINT SINCE GAMES DONT END IN TIES.TAKE SMALL DOGS UP(PREFERABLY) OR TEASE 8,9 POINT FAVORITES DOWN(LESS DESIREABLE) 3.MAXIMIZE YOUR NUMBER. IF THE LINE IS SAY 4.5 OR 5 AND YOUR OUT IS USING 4.5 ,YOU CANT TEASE THE DOG BECAUSE 5 IS AVAILABLE. MAKE OFF NUMBERS WORSE. 4.PLAY AT STORES THAT ALLOW YOU TO OPEN TWO TEAM TEASERS AND CLOSE THEM AT A LATER TIME,USUALLY THE SAME WEEK.THIS WAY YOU CAN MAXIMIZE OFF NUMBERS. RARELY CAN YOU FIND 2 PLAYABLE NUMBERS ON ONE CALL SO JUST OPEN UP THE FIRST HALF AND CLOSE IT LATER.ASK THE BOOK HOW LONG YOU HAVE TO FILL THE BACK HALF. 4.AS HAS BEEN SAID HERE BEFORE ,PLAY WHERE THE RULES ARE TO YOUR ADVANTAGE. ABC ISLANDS IS THE PLACE. A LOSS AND A TIE IS A TIE.LOSE THE FIRST HALF AND TRY TO TIE THE BACK END. IT SOUNDS IMPOSSIBLE BUT ITS A PLAYER ADVANTAGE. 6,6.5 AND 7 POINTS ARE EVEN ,10%AND 20% .... 10 CENTS CHEAPER THAN ANYBODY ELSE. 5.TEASE GAMES WHERE TEAMS KNOW EACH OTHER WELL,LIKE THE NFC EAST..THEY PLAY EACH OTHER 2 TIMES A YEAR,TOTALS TEND TO BE LOW AND MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THE GAMES TEND TO BE CLOSE AS THE TEAMS KNOW EACH OTHER WELL. 6. ARE THERE ANY OUTS THAT HAVE GOOD TEASER RULES? MAYBE OTHER BOOKS WILL FOLLOW ABC ..

[reno]

Across the board, the NFL offers considerably better teaser value than does college football. This is because the NFL is more predictable and games, on the average, fall closer to the betting line. Also, you can take advantage of '3' (crossing it with favorites or dogs), which is an incredibly critical number in the NFL. The best value for players are 2-team and 3-team 7 point teasers. The extra half-point beyond 6-and-a-half and extra point beyond 6 are worth more than the extra juice you pay.

In fact, 2-team and 3-team 7 point teasers--at the generous odds offered by ABC--offer better value (less real juice)than do straight bets at 11/10.

Also, I'll put in a plug for ABC. I find them to be an outstanding sportsbook in every way. They opinionate their opening line more than the other Don Best "clone joints and hold their line until they take a hit. Furthermore, I never get stalled by them and never get busy signals.

[ajax50]

YOUR RIGHT, 99% OF MY TEASER ACTION IS THE NFL. I ALSO FORGOT TO ADD YOU CAN LEAVE TEASING DOWN GB, DALLAS AND SF (ALL PUBLIC FAVORITES) TO SOMEONE ELSE. TAKE NEW ORLEANS ,PHILY UP WHEN THEYRE SHORT ROAD DOGS. LAST YEARS DALLAS-ARIZONA PLAYOFF GAME WAS THE BIGGEST SINGLE GAME FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY BOOK LAST YEAR.IT KNOCKED OUT DALLAS TEASERS.

[Jeff]

More classic football stuff......

[sword1]

I have never been a big fan of teasers since I mainly play college football and there is no way to be sucessful at teasing college football. However even if you look at the NFL, the mathmatics of a 6 point teaser, its not a very good bet. Over the past 20 years, two out of every three teams cover a spread of 6 points.

So if you do the math
.67 X .67 = 44.89%

Even with even money odds at ABC its still not a good bet.

One could argue that the odds makers are getting more accurate but even if the 6 point line covered at a rate of 70%

.70 X .70 = 49%

Its still not a good bet and when you consider most places charge 11/10 - its even worse. I have never done any research on the 7 point teasers but I suspect Reno is right on and its worth buying the extra point.

[Squirming For Action]

Taking a look at Feist's Pro Annual from last year, it look's like Sword1 supports his theory.

Does anyone have any long term results on 2 team teasers since Vegas changed the payout on them? Meaning what amount of games fall within 6, 6 1/2, 7 points incorporating the point spread and does the 2 point conversion really throw anything off?

[Jeff]

There was a post by Reality which I looked for but couldn't find, in which he stated that by knocking down 7 point favs (home?), the book would have had to make you lay -140 to break even over the last couple of yesrs with two team teasers.........still looking for the post.....

[Squirming For Action]

Thanks, Jeff.

[Max the Knife]

http://www.payoffsplus.com/ie/index_ie.html

[bucky]

Open ended teasers are a thing of the past aren't they or are there still some shops that have them?

[REALITY]

Originally posted by Jeff:
There was a post by Reality which I looked for but couldn't find, in which he stated that by knocking down 7 point favs (home?), the book would have had to make you lay -140 to break even over the last couple of yesrs with two team teasers.........still looking for the post.....

JEFF,

E-MAIL SCOTT K OF LVSC REGARDING THIS,I BELIEVE IT WAS HE WHO ADVISED ME OF THIS FACT DURING A PHONE CONVERSATION I HAD WITH HIM LAST SUMMER.

REALITY

[DoggieStyle]

6 point teasers are the only kind of bet I can win in the N.F.L. I will look for every 6-8 point favorite that should be a 6-8 point favorite. Stay away from losing teams that somehow end up being 6-8 point favorites. During the course of the year unless you have horrible luck you should win a little to alot. It is very doubtful you will lose alot because you are playing teams that only need to win the game. And if they are 6-8 point favorites they are going to win a good percentage.

I'm not a numbers guy, but have done very well with these bets. Teasing totals can be good if the Book lets you.

[krackman]

I have a friend who is trying to tell me betting a teaser is the only way to go. I will agree over the years places like abc and rio have made the bet more attractive but I am a straight man...

[auspice]

two team teasers are the only way to go in the nfl. They also allow you to create more outs with the half time numbers.

However, it should be mentioned that I personally have avoided using teasers the first week or so of the season. They don't seem to work as well till the lines tighten up some.....

[Railbird]

its worth the 5 cents to do the 7pt teasers at abc -115,some books like to rob you saying ties lose.

Sword is correct 6 pts has no value.

I used to make a living in Caliente when they allowed 7pt half time teasers from 1989-1995,then some Vegas crews burned it out in 2weeks.