Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs Divisional Round Preview and Prediction
The Houston Texans are set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs on Saturday, January 18th at 4:30 pm EST at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs enter this matchup as 8.5-point favorites with a total of 41.5. (Betonline)
Trends
One trend indicates that teams scoring 31 or more points in their Wild Card round victories have covered the spread in eight of the last 13 divisional playoff games . This bodes well for the Texans, who convincingly defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 in their Wild Card matchup. High-scoring teams carry momentum into the next round, and their offensive firepower can make it difficult for opponents to keep pace, especially against the spread.
Additionally, 21 of the last 36 teams that won on the road in the Wild Card round have covered the spread in the divisional round (60% with one push) . This trend further supports the Texans, who will be looking to secure their second consecutive road victory.
Teams that win on the road in the Wild Card round often demonstrate resilience and an ability to perform under pressure, which can translate into continued success in the divisional round.
Regarding the total, trends suggest a potential lean towards the under. The Chiefs have a 4-0 record to the under in playoff games when the total is 42 or lower . This historical trend, combined with the relatively low total of 41.5, indicates that a lower-scoring game might be on the horizon.
Recent Performance of the Houston Texans
The Texans finished the regular season with a 10-7-0 record, securing the top spot in the AFC South. Their offense, led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, averaged 232.5 passing yards per game and 112.3 rushing yards per game . Stroud threw for 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in the regular season . Their leading rusher, Joe Mixon, accumulated 106 yards in their Wild Card victory against the Chargers .
Defensively, the Texans have been strong, ranking fourth in the league with 49 sacks and second with 19 interceptions . They allowed an average of 21.9 points per game . In their recent playoff game against the Chargers, the Texans showcased a dominant performance on both sides of the ball. Stroud threw for 282 yards and a touchdown, while Mixon rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown . Their defense effectively limited the Chargers’ offense, holding them to just 12 points.
Recent Performance of the Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs concluded the regular season with an impressive 15-2-0 record, claiming the top seed in the AFC West and securing a first-round bye. It’s worth noting that the Chiefs have become more reliant on ball control and defense this season, a shift from their previous high-scoring offensive approach . Their offense averaged 238.0 passing yards per game and 105.3 rushing yards per game . Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 3,928 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions .
The Chiefs’ defense has been solid, allowing an average of 19.2 points per game . They have been particularly effective against the run, ranking eighth in the league with 101.8 rushing yards allowed per game .
Injury Report
The Texans have several key players listed on their injury report. Running back Joe Mixon is questionable with an ankle injury after being a non-participant in practice on Thursday . Mixon has dealt with ankle issues earlier this season, causing him to miss three games (Weeks 3-5) . His availability will be crucial for the Texans’ rushing attack.
Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is also questionable with a knee injury . Wide receiver Robert Woods is dealing with a hip injury and did not participate in practice . There are also reports of potential changes to the Texans’ offensive line heading into the game . These changes could impact their ability to protect Stroud and establish the run.
For the Chiefs, wide receiver Mecole Hardman is doubtful with a knee injury . Cornerback Jaylen Watson is questionable with an ankle injury but is expected to return after a long absence . His return would be a boost to the Chiefs’ secondary. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, despite being listed with an ankle injury, is expected to play .
Strengths and Weaknesses
The Texans’ strengths lie in their young playmakers, particularly Stroud and Anderson Jr., and their strong defense . However, they have struggled to generate explosive pass plays and have been somewhat fortunate with turnovers . While they led the NFL with the fewest turnovers (14) this season, they experienced some fortunate bounces in that regard. They lost just 43.8% of their fumbles, the eighth-lowest rate, and had nine dropped interceptions by defenders . With Mixon and Collins likely to be key focal points for the Chiefs defense, other players like Xavier Hutchinson or John Metchie III will need to step up and contribute offensively .
The Chiefs’ strengths include their strong defense and Mahomes’ playoff experience. However, their offensive line has been a concern, and they have struggled to generate explosive pass plays this season .
Recent Team Performance
| Team | Passing Yards/Game | Rushing Yards/Game | Points Scored/Game | Points Allowed/Game | Record ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 232.5 | 112.3 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 8-8-2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 238.0 | 105.3 | 22.6 | 19.2 | 8-9-0 |
Our Pick
Our model, when using data from the last 7 games only, predicts a Chiefs win by a score of 19-18. In fact, just about all of the different ways to make a number on a game are going to favor the Texans plus the points here.
For example, the Chiefs yards per play number of -0.2 is the worst of all remaining playoff teams. The Texans are +0.1.
The number is inflated because it’s Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Proven winners. This is their time.
But the Chiefs have been winning close game all year. They haven’t been dominant. We’re going to stick with our model and our numbers and back the Texans to at least stay within this spot.