Rams at Eagles: Divisional Round Preview and Prediction
This Sunday, January 19th, the Los Angeles Rams will travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round. Kickoff is set for 3:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles enter the game as 6-point favorites, with the total set at 44 (betonline). This matchup promises to be a thrilling contest between two teams with strong playoff experience and contrasting styles. Historically, the Eagles have held an edge over the Rams, with a 24-20-1 all-time record, including a 15-5 record since 1986 and a 2-0 record under Nick Sirianni. Let’s delve into a comprehensive analysis of both teams, considering their recent performance, injury reports, and analyst predictions to provide an informed prediction against the spread.
Historical Playoff Performance
Examining the historical performance of both teams in divisional playoff games reveals interesting insights. The Eagles have a strong track record in the Divisional Round, boasting a 9-7 record in their 16 appearances. This success is further emphasized by their impressive 6-0 record at home in this round, the best mark in the NFL. In those six home victories, they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 25-11 and haven’t allowed more than 17 points in any of them. No other team in the league has a Divisional Round home record this impressive. On the other hand, the Rams hold a 12-9 record in their 21 Divisional Round appearances. While this record is respectable, it’s worth noting that the Rams have struggled on the road in the playoffs historically, with a 10-17 record overall.
Injury Report
The Rams enter the game relatively healthy, with no significant injuries reported. However, they did lose cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon to a thigh injury during their Wild Card game against the Vikings. Witherspoon had been playing well prior to his exit, recording three tackles and his first career sack. His absence could potentially test the Rams’ secondary against the Eagles’ talented receiving corps.
For the Eagles, linebacker Nakobe Dean suffered a season-ending knee injury in their Wild Card victory over the Packers. Dean was a key contributor to the Eagles’ defense, ranking second on the team in tackles with 128. He also had three sacks on the season. Dean’s absence leaves a significant hole in the middle of the Eagles’ defense. Players like Zack Baun and Jeremiah Trotter Jr. will likely be tasked with filling his role, and their performance could be crucial in containing the Rams’ offense.
Offensive and Defensive Statistics
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ offense has been inconsistent this season, ranking 19th in points per game and 15th in yards per game. Their passing attack has been more productive than their rushing game, with quarterback Matthew Stafford averaging 226.1 passing yards per game. In their Wild Card game against the Vikings, the Rams’ offense generated 292 total yards, with 209 passing yards and 90 rushing yards.
Defensively, the Rams have been solid, ranking 15th in points allowed per game. They were particularly impressive in their Wild Card game, tying an NFL record with nine sacks and limiting the Vikings to just nine points. Their 18% sack rate in that game was their highest of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles boast a potent offense, ranking 7th in points per game and 10th in yards per game. Their rushing attack has been a key strength, ranking 2nd in the league in rushing yards per game during the playoffs. In their Wild Card game against the Packers, the Eagles generated 290 total offensive yards, with 169 rushing yards and 131 passing yards.
Defensively, the Eagles have been exceptional, ranking 1st in both points allowed and yards allowed per game. They have been particularly stingy against the pass, allowing an average of just 175.3 passing yards per game. Since Week 6, the Eagles rank 1st in the NFL in total defense (214.5 ypg), passing defense (141.0 ypg), rushing defense (73.5 ypg), defensive points allowed per game (11.0), and sacks (16).
To further illustrate the key differences in offensive and defensive performance between the two teams, the following table presents a comparison of their key statistics:
| Stat | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9 | 26.9 |
| Yards per game | 329.2 | 362.9 |
| Passing yards per game | 226.1 | 184.2 |
| Rushing yards per game | 90.0 | 169.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.9 | 17.4 |
| Yards allowed per game | 348.2 | 279.7 |
| Passing yards allowed per game | 219.5 | 175.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.7 | 104.4 |
Key Factors to Consider
- Home-Field Advantage: The Eagles have been dominant at home this season, boasting an 8-1 record at Lincoln Financial Field. The passionate Philadelphia crowd will undoubtedly provide a significant boost to the Eagles.
- Weather Conditions: The forecast for Sunday predicts rain and snow with a high of 37°F and a low of 17°F. These conditions could favor the Eagles’ strong running game and potentially hinder the Rams’ passing attack.
- Coaching Strategies: Sean McVay and Nick Sirianni are two of the brightest young coaches in the NFL. McVay is known for his innovative offensive schemes and ability to adapt to his opponent’s weaknesses. He may look to exploit the Eagles’ linebackers with quick passes and misdirection plays to compensate for the absence of Ahkello Witherspoon.Sirianni, on the other hand, will likely rely on a balanced offensive attack, utilizing the strong running game of Saquon Barkley to control the clock and keep the Rams’ offense off the field. He may also employ more blitzes to pressure Stafford and disrupt the Rams’ passing game.
Prop Bet Suggestions
One prop bet with potential value is fading Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua against the Eagles’ elite secondary. Consider betting UNDER 90.5 receiving yards for Nacua.
Our Pick
Our model, when using data from only the last 7 games, predicts a 20-16 Eagles win. While we agree with the model in terms of the winner of the game, we think the margin is likely to be higher.
The Eagles have the edge in just about every significant statristical category. Perhaps no stat more important than yards per play, a statistic all sharp bettors consider before making an NFL wager. The Eagles are the 2nd best in that category of the remaining playoff teams with a number of +0.8. The Rams are dead last with a negative number of -0.2. A full yard differential between the two teams.
Add in the home field with the Rams having to travel across the country and the margin likley increases. We expect the Eagles to put this game out of reach as we head towards the 4th quarter.